Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills Point Spread – Pick Against the Spread

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. Buffalo Bills (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Sunday, October 9, 2011, Ralph Wilson Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y. TV: FOX
by Ryno of
Point Spread: Phi +1.5/Buf -1.5
Over/Under Total: 49.5

There is panic in Philadelphia. The Eagles, once deemed the “Dream Team” after acquiring a slew of Pro Bowl-caliber players before the season, have lost three games in a row and have fallen to 1-3. The latest defeat was a monumental collapse to the San Francisco 49ers. How can the Eagles get back on track and comfort the angry fans? Only by getting a victory in Buffalo on Sunday against the Bills.

Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off their first loss of the season, a disappointing 23-20 defeat at Cincinnati which came after a monumental 34-31 win over the New England Patriots. The Bills started the season 3-0 but suffered their first setback last week after blowing a 17-6 lead. They allowed Bengals rookie quarterback Andy Dalton to charge down the field and score a touchdown and then the Bengals got the ball back and kicked a game-winning field goal as time expired. The Bills just didn’t move the ball on offense the way they did the first three weeks of the season when they put up 34 or more points in each of those three games.

Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been terrific this season. He has 1,040 passing yards, nine touchdowns, three interceptions and a 63.4 completion percentage. Running back Fred Jackson has been superb as well with 369 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Jackson also has 13 receptions for 147 yards. Steve Johnson has been playing like a No. 1 receiver. He has 24 receptions for 314 yards and three touchdowns. David Nelson has emerged as a solid No. 2 target for Fitzpatrick and Scott Chandler has been a viable red zone target at tight end.

The Eagles started the season with an easy win over the Rams. But it all went downhill from there. Michael Vick got injured in a Sunday Night game in Atlanta and had to leave the game. While he was out, the Falcons came back from 10 points down in the fourth quarter to get the victory. Vick came back the next week against the Giants but once again was injured and couldn’t finish the game. The Eagles were already playing poorly and the Giants got the victory there. Last week, Vick was back on the field and it looked like the Eagles had it in the bag, up 23-3 late in the third quarter. But the 49ers woke up and came back for a 24-23 shocking win.

Vick has 1,021 passing yards, six passing touchdowns, three interceptions and 228 rushing yards. Running back LeSean McCoy has 363 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, 15 receptions, 83 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson lead the way through the air, as the two of them have combined for 42 receptions and 658 receiving yards.

If both of these offenses are on track, neither one of these defenses is capable of completing stopping the opposing offense. With Jackson running the ball and Fitzpatrick moving the ball through the air, the Bills can put up points, just like they did against the Patriots and Raiders. When the Eagles don’t turn the ball over and actually score touchdowns in the red zone, they can put up a lot of points as well. But turnovers and red zone failures have been killing the Eagles the last few weeks. This game may come down to which defense steps up more and creates some turnovers. If neither defense steps up and neither offense makes any mistakes, it will instead just come down to whichever team has the ball last. Expect a high-scoring shootout that will be fun to watch.

The over is 5-0 in the Bills’ last five games overall, 4-0 in the Eagles’ last four October games, 5-0 in the Eagles’ last five games as a road favorite, and 10-1 in the Eagles’ last 11 road games. The Eagles are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.

Ryno’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I see a whole lot of points being scored here! Take the OVER as neither defense will be able to stop the opponents offense.

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