Rams vs. Steelers Pick 11/10/19
Los Angeles Rams (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)
NFL Week 10
Date/Time: Sunday November 10th, 2019. 4:25PM (EST)
Where: Heinz Field Pittsburgh, P.A.
Point Spread: LAR -3.5/PIT +3.5
Over/Under Total: 45
The Los Angeles Rams will return from a bye week for a Week 10 road trip against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field in what could be described as a must-win situation. The Steelers have found some momentum in recent weeks behind the development of quarterback Mason Rudolph. The Steelers have racked up three straight wins against the Chargers, Dolphins, and, most recently, the Colts. If the Steelers could pull out a 4th straight win this week against the Rams, it would surprisingly put Pittsburgh back into the thick of the AFC Wildcard playoff battle.
Likewise, this game is also extremely important for the 5-3 SU Rams who currently sit 3rd in the stacked NFC West behind San Francisco and Seattle. After making a Super Bowl appearance just one year ago, the Rams could be in danger of missing the playoffs, especially if they fail to get past the Steelers this Sunday. I do not like hyping mid-season games to try to find effort angles, but this is not that type of situation. This game between the Rams and Steelers on Sunday has dire implications for both teams postseason hopes, and that is likely why this betting line is a slim 3.5 points in favor of the Rams.
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Steelers offense vs. Rams defense
I believe the match-up that will decide this game will surround the Steelers offense against the Rams defense. Pittsburgh has had the luxury of some good match-ups in the past few weeks against a fading Chargers team, the league’s worst team in the Dolphins, and a home match-up against the Colts. This week’s match-up against the Rams’ defense will be a different type of animal. I know I mentioned earlier that quarterback Mason Rudolph has been getting better, but he is still far from polished. To make matters worse, the Steelers will also likely be without star running back James Conner for the 2nd straight week due to an AC joint injury. Running back Jaylen Samuels is a capable back, but his talents are best suited for the passing game rather than between the tackles.
Therefore, Mason Rudolph will likely be forced into several dropbacks against the Rams pass rush led by defensive tackle Aaron Darnold and the expected return of Clay Matthews who has been out since week 5 with a jaw injury. If you consider the pass rush combined with the Rams new secondary that features Jalen Ramsey that will likely cover WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, this is a plum draw for the Los Angeles defense that has not given up more than 10 points since Ramsey’s acquisition. Either way, you look at it, Pittsburgh is going to have their hands full in the match-ups department and will need Rudolph to play excellent to have a chance.
Bet on the Rams offense in week 10
When you look at the Rams offense under Head Coach Sean McVay this year, they have produced solid results. Outside of a disastrous performance against San Francisco, the Rams have averaged 30 points in 4 of their last five games. Despite the fact, Todd Gurley has failed to look like Todd Gurley and previous year’s leading WR Brandin Cooks have been riddled with injuries, the offense still finds ways to be successful. The majority of that success has went through WR Cooper Kupp, who ranks 3rd in the NFL with 792 yards. Kupp has terrorized defenses over the middle of the field, which has allowed McVay to be creative to keep this offense productive. In this week’s match-up, quarterback Jared Goff will have a tough challenge against Pittsburgh’s pass rush. However, I expect the Rams to have the most opportunities as well because I believe the Rams defense is going to feast.
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