Redskins vs. Packers Prediction ATS

by | Dec 4, 2019 | nfl

Washington Redskins (3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS) vs. Green Bay Packers (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS)
NFL Week 14
Date and Time:Sunday, December 8 at 1pm ET
Where:Lambeau Field

Point Spread:WSH +13/GB -13 (Bovada)
Over/Under Total:42

With just a few weeks in the regular season, several teams are ready to punch their playoff tickets. Green Bay sits one game ahead in the NFC North, and a few wins over the next few weeks could afford the luxury of winning the division without needing to win the upcoming game with Minnesota. The Washington Redskins head to Lambeau to play spoiler this weekend, and they are riding a two-game win streak with a 4-2 ATS mark in their last six games. Washington is bringing the league’s worst offense have turned the reins over to Dwayne Haskins for an extended audition, but their betting prospects will benefit from a nearly two-touchdown spread.

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Youth Movement

With eyes toward 2020, several key youngsters are taking bigger roles for Washington. Dwayne Haskins, deemed “not ready” for game time in the early season, has taken over at QB and has thrown for two touchdowns against six interceptions while posting a 58.5 rating. He has some talent on the move, but the consistency has lacked in this offense, and the ‘Skins are last in points per game at 14.4 a contest. Derris Guice is back from his latest injury and has averaged 5.5 yards per carry with three total touchdowns in three games. Adrian Peterson (642-2) is still churning out the yards and will continue to do so in order to keep Guice fresh. Chris Thompson returns from a five-game absence to give Washington a quality receiving option out of the backfield, and the running back group is the most talented unit on this offense. Terry McLaurin (42-646-5) leads the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, but he hasn’t been able to produce at that level with Haskins. Through twelve games, Washington’s offense ranks last in passing yards, total yards, points, 3rd down conversions and time of possession. The defense has been marginally better but may be without LB Montez Sweat (5 sacks), and backup LB Ryan Kerrigan (4 sacks) as both are on the injury report as questionable. Matt Ioannidis leads the team with 7.5 sacks that has done well in pressuring the opposing QB despite ranking 30th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Quinten Dunbar and Fabian Moreau have combined for seven interceptions and will look to snag one off Aaron Rodgers who has only thrown two picks all season.

Keep it Simple

The loss to the 49ers showed that Green Bay is probably not ready to compete with the best in the league right now, but there are still plenty of positives for this team. Rodgers isn’t putting up big numbers as the Packers are just 14th in passing yards, but he has thrown for 22 touchdowns and been effective with his legs as well. Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams have accounted for 20 touchdowns out of the backfield, and both are past the 35-catch mark to be useful receivers. Davante Adams (52-644-3) has played just eight games but leads the team in catches and yards and has scored in two straight games after going scoreless until Week 12. Allen Lazard has emerged as Rodgers’ second favorite target on the outside with 22 catches for 330 yards in just the last seven games. The Green Bay defense has slid all the way back to 28th in yards allowed after a hot start, but they have done a better job in limiting points, ranking 14th while allowing 21.2 per game. Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith have accounted for 20 of the Packers 28 sacks with the pass-rush remaining the best part of the defense overall. Kevin King leads the way with four interceptions and the secondary has played well provided Green Bay is playing with the lead.

Trend Watch

Washington is 4-0 against the spread in their last four against the NFC but are riding an 0-4 ATS streak immediately following a straight-up win. The Under has a 7-2 record in Washington’s last nine games overall, but 67% of the public bets have come in on the over with the total for this game sitting at 42. Green Bay is tied for the league lead with eight ATS wins in 2019 but are 1-4 against the spread in the last five immediately following an ATS win. The Under is 7-3 in Green Bay’s last ten games following an ATS win. Even with the hefty 13-point line, Green Bay is getting nearly 70% of the public money in the early betting period.

Green Bay handled the Giants in a very similar situation to this week. The Packers have a habit of beating up on lesser teams, and this is arguably the worst team they have faced this season. Green Bay should be able to run against Washington’s 27th ranked defense, and Rodgers has remained dominant when the run game lets him work in good down-and-distance situations. I think the Packers lead by double-digits at the half on the strength of Rodgers to Adams and turn to the run game to pull away while the Smith’s add some big-plays by getting to Haskins. It will take a while to erase the 13-point cushion but Green Bay cruises to 31-14 win

Ted’s’ Pick to Cover the Point Spread:Green Bay

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