New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, September 20, 2026
1:00 PM ET, M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore is an 8.5-point home favorite over New Orleans with a total of 47.5. My play is the Saints getting the points.
The Ravens’ ATS profile from 2025 is the entry point here. Baltimore finished 6-11 against the spread last season. That’s one of the worst covering records in the NFL despite the Ravens being one of the stronger teams overall. That trend is a specific reflection of how Baltimore consistently underperforms expectations when they’re laying big numbers as favorites. When you’re an ATS 6-11 team and you’re being asked to cover nearly nine points on the road, the math simply doesn’t work out most of the time.
Now consider what the Saints just did. Tyler Shough and New Orleans battled back from a 21-0 second-half deficit against Detroit last week to force overtime and nearly win the game on a two-point conversion attempt. That’s a Saints team playing at a much higher level than their 0-1 record suggests. They lost by a single point in OT. That’s the opposite of getting steamrolled — that’s a team that can hang with a legitimate NFC playoff contender and force overtime in a hostile environment.
The Ravens have real injury concerns coming out of Week 1. Zay Flowers (their top receiver) hurt his hamstring, and Ja’Kobi Lane injured his wrist. Both are significant contributors, and playing without Flowers specifically limits Lamar Jackson’s ability to attack downfield. That’s a real reduction in Baltimore’s offensive ceiling from the 41-point performance they put up against Indianapolis. With Flowers limited, Baltimore’s offense becomes more predictable — Derrick Henry between the tackles and shorter throws that the Saints defense can adjust to.
The Saints have a functioning offensive template of their own. Tyler Shough has been 5-5 as the starter since 2025, and while his numbers aren’t flashy, he’s shown he can move the ball against real NFL defenses. Travis Etienne is a legitimate NFL back who can absorb some of Baltimore’s aggressive front-seven pressure. Chris Olave is a top-tier receiving option who can win downfield against Baltimore’s secondary — even against All-Pro Kyle Hamilton, who’s typically deployed in specific matchups rather than shutting down elite wideouts everywhere.
Kellen Moore is a smart offensive coach who’s shown he can game-plan against strong defenses. His scheme is designed to create matchup advantages through motion, personnel groupings, and specific play calls, not through overwhelming his opponents with sustained drives. Against Baltimore, he’ll be looking to create explosive plays through misdirection and downfield shots that Shough can execute.
Realistic outcomes: Ravens 27, Saints 20 (7-point margin, Saints cover +8.5); Ravens 31, Saints 23 (8-point margin, Saints cover); Ravens 24, Saints 17 (7-point margin, Saints cover by 1.5); or Ravens 34, Saints 20 (14-point margin, Ravens cover). Three of four scenarios cover for New Orleans. Only a decisive Ravens blowout loses the ticket, and given Baltimore’s ATS profile from last year plus the Flowers/Lane injury concerns, that scenario is less likely than the market prices in.
Getting nearly 9 points with a Saints team that just forced overtime against a playoff-caliber Lions team is the right side of the number.
The Pick: New Orleans Saints +8.5. Bet your Week 2 NFL football picks for FREE by scoring a massive 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 when you use bonus promo code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!
