San Diego Chargers (2-3) 1-4 ATS, 4-1 O/U at Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) 2-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U Sunday October 25, 2009 Arrowhead Stadium Kansas City, Missouri 1:00 p.m. EST TV: CBS
By Wilson of Predictem.com
Point Spread: San Diego -4/Kansas City +4
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The San Diego Chargers travel to the middle of the country this week to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in a must win for both teams if they want to turn their seasons around. The Chargers played with the Broncos last Monday night before falling 34-23. Denver remains undefeated at 6-0 under new head coach Josh McDaniels. San Diego had plenty of fight but they had plenty of mistakes as well. The Chargers will need to address some special teams issues especially on kick off and punt returns. Denvers Eddie Royal put up 235 total return yards against the Chargers including a 93-yard kick off return and a 71-yard punt return both for touchdowns.
Chargers QB Philip Rivers was 20 of 33 for 274 yards and 1 touchdown. Running back LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 70 yards on 18 carries but did not score a touchdown. Tomlinson was held out on a third down and two in which the Chargers ended up settling for a field goal. There appeared to be some static between Tomlinson and San Diego head coach Norv Turner. This may not be a good sign for the Chargers if they plan on turning things around this season. Rivers commented that they need to put this game behind them and focus on Kansas City or they could be in trouble at Arrowhead as well.
Kansas City is coming off of their first, and much desired win of the season over the Washington Redskins 14-6. Hey, what a barn burner! The Chiefs got their win but the game was ugly and pathetic as there were 15 punts including one that got blocked. Niether team was dominate but rather cashing in on the others blunders or just simple lack of anything offensive.
The line for this game opened at San Diego -5 with the total at 43.5. Currently the line at most offshore casinos is San Diego -4 and the total is at 44. KCs QB Matt Cassel was 17 of 32 for 186 yards and zero touchdowns. Charger receiver Dwayne Bowe pulled in 6 receptions for 186 yards and zero touchdowns. In fact, the Chiefs didnt score a touchdown at all in this latest matchup.
San Diego is averaging 24.8 points per game while allowing 27.2 to their opponents. The Chargers have been more productive through the air so far this season as they average 284 yards in passing to just 57.6 on the ground. These numbers are a bit daunting given Ladainian Tomlinson still lurks in the backfield for the Chargers. But their running game has not been what it used to be as they have a 9 to 2 yard-gain differential between the pass and run per play.
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Kansas City is averaging 16.3 points per game and giving up 24 ppg to their competition. The Chiefs arent exactly the type of team that lights up the scoreboard. They have struggled all year to get the ball in the end zone, and I dont see it getting better any time soon. Kansas City is only averaging 259 yards of total offense per outing while they give up nearly 380, and 250 of that is through the sky.
Both of these defenses need work. It will likely come down to which of these teams can hang onto the ball and tighten up on D. Kansas City has yet to win at home this season as they are 0-3 at Arrowhead, and 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U on their own field. The Chargers are 1-1, 0-2 ATS, and 2-0 O/U on the road.
Wilsons Pick: Look for the Chiefs to stick with the Chargers in what is likely to be a very low scoring game. Luck to ya.