Seahawks vs. Giants: NFL Monday Night Clash – Expert Analysis
Seattle Seahawks (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. New York Giants (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)
Date/Time: Monday, October 2, 8:15 PM EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Point Spread: Sea -1.5 / NYG +1.5
Moneyline: Sea -120 / NYG +100
Over/Under Total: 45
We get a great NFC battle to close out week 4 of the NFL Season with the Seahawks visiting the Giants. Both these teams snuck into the playoffs last year, and even though it is early in 2023, this game will have playoff implications down the road. BOVADA.LV is making the visiting Seahawks 2.5 point favorites, and setting the Over/Under at 45. I like the G-Men to play their best game of the year and win outright, or at least cover the number. Here is the handicap.
The Giants Offense Will Show Up
Daniel Jones and the Giant offense have been disappointing this season to say the least. They have faced 2 premier defenses in the league in Dallas and San Francisco, and they looked like a mediocre high school team averaging 160 yards of offense in those 2 games. However, in their game against the Cardinals, they moved the ball for 439 yards (mostly in the second half), and looked like the offense we expected. The Seahawks defense will look more like the Cardinals than either the Cowboys or the 49ers, so I look for the Giants to be able to look more a professional offense than a high school one. There is a chance that Saquon Barkley returns from his ankle injury, but even if he doesn’t Jones should be able to move the ball through the air and with his own running. Coach Brian Daboll will definitely be more committed to running the ball this week, with or without Barkley after only calling 11 running plays against San Fran. There is also a good chance Tackle Andrew Thomas is able to return to action which would be a welcome sight for Jones and the running game. I think the Giants can have success against a middling Seahawk defense, and look a lot better than they did last Thursday against the 49ers.
Seattle’s defense has been nothing special this year. They have given up 30 points to the Rams, 31 to the Lions and then 27 to Andy Dalton and the Panthers last week. They are giving up just under 6 yards per play and are vulnerable to both the pass and the run. Seattle has recorded only 5 sacks and 1 interception, so they are not attacking, just hoping to contain their opponents. The Seahawk defense hasn’t been able to stop any anyone this year, and I don’t think they do can stop the Giants.
Seattle’s Offense Will Be A Challenge
After laying an egg in week 1 against the Rams, Geno Smith has the Seattle offense humming. They put up 31 on the Lions and 37 points on the Panthers while averaging well over 400 yards. D.K. Metcalf is averaging over 15 yards per reception while cohort Tyler Lockett has started a little slow, but the pair continues to work as one the premier receiving tandems in the league. Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker III and rookie Zach Charbonnet are providing an electric one – two punch in the backfield, combining to average over 4 yards per rushing attempt. But with all of the firepower the Seahawks have, they have some key injuries on their offensive line that could cause some problems. It hasn’t stopped them over the last couple of weeks, but New York will work to exploit those issues and possibly rattle Smith.
Giant DC Wink Martindale is a blitzing master and will have a little extra time to prepare for this contest. The Giants have only 2 sacks on the season, and have yet to get an interception. They played better early last Thursday against the 49ers, but wore down after a short week and being on the field 40 minutes in the game. I think this week New York’s defense will be ready for Seattle on Monday Night and give some stiff resistance to the Seahawks. I don’t think they will completely stop Seattle, but they will keep it close.
Giants As An Underdog Has Been Profitable
Since Daboll took over the reins for the Giants last year they are 11-5 ATS as an underdog. They are 0-2 in that role this year, but in both cases they were overmatched. This week, they are playing an opponent that is their equal and their backs are against the wall. This is when we have gotten the best out of Daboll, Jones and company and I think it continues. On the flip side, since Smith took over as the Seahawk QB last year, he is 2-6 as a favorite. He raises his game in the underdog role, but doesn’t deliver in the favorite role. Seattle has been close in every game this year, so they really have no business being a road favorite against a team that was in the playoffs last year.
Play The G-Men, And The Over
The play on Monday Night Football is to trust the Giants to answer the bell and win the game or at least cover the short spread. I also like Over 45.