SF vs. KC Pick Against the Spread

by | Jan 30, 2020 | nfl

San Francisco 49ers (15-3 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-4 SU, 12-5-1 ATS)
Date and Time: Sunday, Feb. 2 at 6:30pm ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium
TV: FOX

Point Spread: SF +1/KC -1 (MyBookie - Bet the Super Bowl for FREE! Deposit $200 and get a FREE $200 Bet!!!!)
Over/Under Total: 54

Seventeen regular season weeks and three playoff rounds have culminated to produce a very interesting finale to the 2019 season. Styles make fights and we get a clash of styles with San Francisco bringing a stout defense against the all-out speed of the Kansas City passing game. The respective roads to Miami have seen those personalities show with KC trailing in both playoff contests before ultimately getting on track and racking up 86 points while the Niners have suffocated their two opponents, allowing just 30 points overall, some of which came in garbage time. In general, the better defensive team has won fifteen of the last twenty SuperBowls but none of those victorious defenses had to face the likes of Patrick Mahomes and crew.

Stick to the Plan

San Francisco has used their strong, run-heavy offensive scheme to great success throughout the regular and postseason and expect another consistent dose of the ground game with SF 2nd in rushing yards while KC comes in at 26th in run-stopping. The Niners are averaging 4.6 yards per carry with the Chiefs allowing nearly five yards per tote. The KC proponents will point out that the defense held Derrick Henry and the Titans run game down in the AFC Championship but on the season, Kansas City allowed at least 100 yards or a touchdown to every back that logged at least fifteen carries in a game. Raheem Mostert took the lead role in the Niner backfield in Week 13 and has nine touchdowns over that seven-game span, hitting double-digit carries in each contest. He will again be the bell-cow considering Tevin Coleman is dealing with a bad shoulder. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t been needed much in the postseason, but he had a nice regular season with 27 touchdowns on 69% completions and averaged 7.4 yards per attempt, just shy of Mahomes’ 7.5 YPA mark. George Kittle hit the 1,000 yard mark in the regular season and poses the biggest matchup problem for KC’s 8th-ranked pass defense but spreading the ball around has been a focus for Garoppolo who threw touchdowns to 13 different receivers during the regular season. The SF defense makes a case for being the best unit on the field as they rank 1st in pass defense, 6th in takeaways and 8th in points allowed at 19.4 per contest. Sacks have been a key with each of the four defensive linemen notching at least 6.5 on the season and the team has nine sacks in the two playoff games. Nick Bosa has three in the postseason and the Niners enter Sunday with 57 sacks on the year, marking the 7th time a SuperBowl team hit the 55-sack threshold with each of the previous six all going on to win.

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Speed Kills

It is hard to imagine a more problematic offense to go up against than the one in Kansas City. We all know the skill set that Mahomes has put on display over the last two seasons but Andy Reid’s ability to utilize the built-in advantages of guys like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill makes this offense a legitimate nightmare. Mahomes posted a 105 QB rating in the regular season and has thrown eight scores (no INT) in the playoffs, posting a 131.5 rating. He is leading the team in postseason rushing at 106 yards, averaging 7.1 yards per carry. That ground game production has been somewhat necessary as KC has struggled to consistently produce with the run, ranking 23rd in yards per game and 20th in yards per carry. Damien Williams has three touchdowns through the two playoff games but is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry after finishing the regular season at 3.7 yards per tote when you take out his one 91-yard carry. San Francisco’s weakness on defense is in run-stopping as they sit 17th in yards allowed and they are bottom-10 in yards per rush allowed so they way to attack them is on the ground but it is certainly in doubt that KC will show the commitment to the run. It is hard to blame them for being pass-heavy considering Travis Kelce is a generation talent at TE and he has 164 yards and three scores in the two playoff wins. Tyreek Hill has an 8-108-2 playoff line with Sammy Watkins adding 9-190-1 and the Chiefs simply have a multitude of weapons that become uncoverable at some point. Mecole Hardman could have a play or package for him come Sunday, he averaged 26 yards per kickoff return with one special teams score. Frank Clark has been hot with four sacks in the playoffs, doubling his regular season total. The defense is leaky against the run but has fared better against the pass, allowing the 8th-fewest yards through the air with five defensive backs recording multiple interceptions during the regular season. The Chiefs best bet will be to get out to an early lead and make San Fran as one-dimensional as possible.

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Trend Watch

San Francisco is riding a good trend as the underdog, going 5-0 against the spread in the last five games where they were getting points. They are 6-1 ATS in the last seven against an opponent a record above .500 and the OVER has hit in four the of last five San Francisco playoff games. Kansas City is 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight games overall with a 5-0 ATS mark against teams with winning records. The OVER has hit in seven of the last nine when KC faces an opponent above the .500 mark. KC is getting 59% of the public money at the current (-1) line and 76% of the action is coming in on the OVER.

This is such an interesting matchup and the narrow line assures that any close game is going to be riveting for bettors. I don’t want to discount the high-stakes created by the biggest game of the season, but I feel like San Fran would be the better play in the regular season both as a small home favorite or as three-ish point dog at Arrowhead. The Niner running game made to grind out yards, set-up favorable down-and-distance scenarios and burn the opposition on play-action. Kansas City does not openly offer a defensive deterrent to get SF off that plan. Many want to focus on how many KC will score but the key number should be how many they allow. This all feels a bit like a college bowl game between a Big-Ten school (SF) and someone from the Big-12 (KC).

It hasn’t been a four-quarter clinic for KC in either of their playoff games and I think San Francisco is in a much better position than Houston or Tennessee were to make KC pay for spinning their tires with penalties or dropped passes. Look for Mostert to continue his recent trend of good play and for Deebo Samuel to factor in as seven of his nineteen carries this season have gone for at least 19 yards. Richard Sherman has two interceptions in the playoffs and Darrelle Revis absolutely did San Francisco a favor by suggesting Sherman was a coverage liability on Twitter. Sherm should be plenty fired up to prove otherwise. I think the Niners can hold down the Chiefs offense enough to stick to their strengths, slow the game down and keep the ball away from Mahomes. I’m looking for safe throws for Jimmy G. early before Kittle starts working the deep-seam but that connection eventually burns the KC defense. I’m taking the 49ers to win 26-24. Where are you betting your Super Bowl picks? Does your bookie allow you to bet at discounted odds (-105)? Does he offer HUNDREDS of prop bets? Does he pay fast? Not likely! You can also find 20 point teasers, 25 team parlays and progressive parlays where some of your picks can lose and you still cash! Find all this and more at the web’s best sportsbook —> 5Dimes!

Ted’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: San Francisco 49ers plus the points!

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