SNF Pick: Packers vs. Eagles Analysis & Best Bet

Green Bay Packers (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS) v. Philadelphia Eagles (9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS)
NFL Week 12
When: Sunday, November 27 at 8:20pm ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Watch: NBC

Point Spread: GB +7/PHI -7 (BAS – Stop betting on games at -110 odds! Start laying only -105 at BetAnySports Sportsbook!
Over/UnderTotal: 46.5

The NFC playoff picture is blurry at the moment, but things are set to clear up over the next few weeks. Green Bay visits Philadelphia this weekend with plenty on the line for both teams. The Eagles have proven to be the class of the NFC, but they have just a one-game lead over Minnesota for the #1 seed and a two-game lead over Dallas and New York for control of the NFC East. Any kind of losing streak could send the Eagles from a potential bye to the Wildcard round. Green Bay is on playoff life support, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that a 9-8 record will make it to the postseason, so count Aaron Rodgers out at your own risk.

Trend Watch

Green Bay has fallen from the ranks of reliable betting options, going just 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall with the same 2-6 ATS mark in their last eight road games. Rodgers has twice been an underdog to the Eagles in his career, and Green Bay has won both of those games outright. The road team is 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in this series, but Philly combats that with a 4-1 ATS mark in their last five at home. The Eagles have played down to their competition with just one ATS win in the last five when playing a team with a losing record. Green Bay enters as the 26th-ranked scoring offense, and that has made the Under a good play in several cases, including four of the last five when the Packers are on the road. The Under is 8-2 in the last ten when these teams play. Green Bay is used to being a betting favorite on a weekly basis, but it is Philadelphia that is seeing 57% of the public money so far, with a similar percentage liking the Over to hit.

Signs of Life?

Green Bay has given very few indications that they are anything more than their 4-7 record would indicate. However, Rodgers still sits 4th in touchdown passes on the season, and he is seeing the emergence of a potential #1 WR in Christian Watson. It is a small sample size for the rookie, but he broke out for three touchdowns against Dallas and followed that up with two more scores against Tennessee to tie him for the team lead with Allen Lazard. This offense has long been predicated on a true Nop. 1 option on the outside like Jordy Nelson or Davante Adams, and getting Watson to consistently produce would go a long way to turning the season around. Aaron Jones leads the team with 778 rushing yards and sits second in receptions (40), and he remains the best offensive option on the team. Robert Tonyan isn’t putting up big yardage numbers, but his 41 receptions are good for 8th among all tight ends and also leads all Packers receivers. Add in Lazard and the recent return of Randall Cobb, and GB has the offensive pieces in place if they can execute. The defense ranks 14th in total yards allowed, but that stat is mostly hiding a poor run defense that has given up 135 yards per game. The Eagles are 6th in rushing offense, so any chance of GB pulling an upset will come with an improved effort against the run. The LB level is very beaten up in Green Bay with Rashan Gary on the IR and Quay Walker and De’Vondre Campbell both questionable for Sunday Night.

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Off of Cruise Control

Philadelphia had been flying high until a Week 10 loss to Washington, and they were lucky to escape with a 17-16 win against Indianapolis last week. The Eagles trailed the entire time against the Colts until Jalen Hurts scored with just over a minute left. Philly was -2 in turnovers against Indy and minus-4 against Washington, so limiting the mistakes will be key this week. Hurts pilots the 12th-best passing game, and he is completing just under 69% of his passes with 15 touchdowns against three interceptions. Hurts leads all QBs with eight rushing scores, and his 440 rushing yards are good for 4th. Miles Sanders is quietly putting together a nice season with a 4.9 yards per carry average, and he is on pace for 1,275 rushing yards. Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown are a formidable tandem to cover, with the duo combining for 101 receptions and 1,344 yards with nine touchdowns. Given all that name-brand production, it isn’t surprising to see Philly inside the top 5 in yards gained, and points scored. The defense has held up their end with the 2nd-fewest total yards allowed and the most takeaways in the league. They hold opponents to 18.3 points per game, and the Eagles haven’t given up more than 21 points since Week 2. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson leads the league with six interceptions, and three Eagles have at least three interceptions.

Take the Birds at Home

Betting against Aaron Rodgers has never been for the faint of heart, but the Packers are the limited team that they have shown us so far. An OT win against the Cowboys, and a few nice touchdown throws to Watson doesn’t cover up that this team doesn’t have a good enough roster to contend with the best in the conference. Having Cobb back helps the Packers’ passing game, especially on third downs, but 17-20 points aren’t going to get it done against Philly. The Eagles can attack the banged-up Green Bay defense with the run and use their WRs on the outside. Philly won’t have TE Dallas Goedert, but Hurts has proven he can use his legs on key third downs and in the red zone. That gives Philadelphia an on-field advantage on both sides of the ball. They secure an early two-score lead and maintain the margin through the second half en route to a 28-17 win.

Pick to Cover the Spread: Philadelphia minus the points! Bet your Week 12 NFL picks for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you use promo code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!