SNF Pick: Ravens vs. Chargers Expert Analysis & Predictions

by | Last updated Nov 22, 2023 | nfl

Baltimore Ravens (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS)
Date/Time: Sunday, November 26, 8:20 PM EST
Where: SoFi Stadium

Point Spread: Bal -4 / LAC +4
Moneyline: Bal -200 / LAC +170
Over/Under Total: 47

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens head west to visit Justin Herbert and the Chargers at Sofi Field in Los Angeles on Sunday Night. These are 2 of the premier signal callers in the NFL, but the teams are going in opposite directions. BOVADA.LV has made the Ravens 4-point favorites and set the game total at 47. Let’s lay the points with Baltimore and count on Jackson to win the game and cover the spread. Here is the handicap.

Baltimore’s Offense Is Rolling

The Ravens’ offense hasn’t been very flashy this year, but they have scored the second most points in the league and are 5th in the league in yards per play. QB Lamar Jackson has been nothing more than steady in new OC Todd Monken’s attack, throwing for 220 yards per game and 12 TDs in his 11 games while running for about 50 yards per game. Still, he has been rock solid and is in the discussion for MVP for the way he is leading the Ravens to wins. The Ravens have been averaging 34 points per game over their last 5, but now they will be without TE Mark Andrews, who went on IR this week. Andrews is Jackson’s go-to guy when the chips are down, and now Jackson will have to look elsewhere. The wide receiver group, including Zay Flowers and maybe Odell Beckham Jr., will have to fill that gap, but it is a huge gap to fill. The Ravens can still run the ball, ranking first in the league in yards per rush and rushing touchdowns. This week, they get a bad Chargers defense that lost their best player last week. I don’t think the Chargers can slow down the Ravens’ attack, even without Andrews.

LA’s defense has allowed the 8th most points in the league and allows the 5th most yards per play. Now the Chargers will have to line up without edge rusher Joey Bosa, who left last week’s game with a foot injury. LA allows the most passing yards per game by a wide margin and that with a pass rush that is 5th in the league in sacks. Without Bosa, the Ravens can focus on Khalil Mack and should be able to give Jackson time to throw. The Chargers are middle of the pack against the run, but the Lions ran for 200 yards against them two weeks ago, and the Packers ran for 102 yards last week. The Chargers have given up over 400 total yards 4 times this year and were 3 yards short of their 5th time last Sunday. The Ravens offense will have a field day on Sunday, lighting up the scoreboard on the ground and in the air.

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LA’s Offense Needs Another Weapon

Herbert has one of the best arms in the league and can make all of the throws. But the Chargers skill players have been letting him down lately. With Mike Williams out for the year and Josh Palmer out the past few weeks, Herbert is desperate for a target other than Keenan Allen. Allen is catching 75% of his targets, averaging 100 yards per game, and has hit paydirt seven times, but he can’t do it all. Austin Ekeler has had a good year but has yet to be the same dynamic player he was the past few years, while none of the other receivers or tight ends are stepping up. The Chargers will be facing the best defense they have seen this year, and I don’t think it will end well for them.

Baltimore’s defense allows the 2nd fewest points per game and is best in the league in opponents yards per play. They are number 1 in sacks and have the 3rd best red zone defense in the league. The linebacker duo of Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen might be the best going, and they will keep the run Ekeler in check, making Herbert and his receivers beat them. With constant pressure in his face and receivers he can’t trust, we can’t count on Herbert to put the Chargers on his back. It will be a long day for the Chargers.

The Chargers Are Dead Men Walking

Every August, we hear the same thing: This is the year the Chargers unseat the Chiefs in the AFC West, and how they take the next step and make a deep playoff run. We also hear about what a great coach Brandon Staley is, and every year, the product on the field proves that is not the case. I think the Chargers team realized last week when they lost to a bad Packers team and lost their best defensive player, that they aren’t close to winning a division, and Staley probably won’t be back next year. There is no home-field crowd to pick them up and cheer them on at Sofi. I think we get a lackluster effort from LA. They get down early and roll over against a Raven team that is now playing for the #1 seed in the AFC.

Play The Ravens

The play Sunday Night is to lay the wood and back Baltimore. We get the far better coach and far better defense and only lay 4 points.

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