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Louis Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Pick.
St. Louis Rams (4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS), Week 10 NFL, 4:15 p.m. EST, Sunday, November 14, 2010, Candlestick Park, San Francisco, Cal. TV: FOX
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Betting Odds: Stl +6/SF -6
Over/Under Total: 38.5
Bet SF at +14 by placing them into a 20 point football teaser at the web’s BEST sportsbook: 5Dimes.
The San Francisco 49ers were supposed to be the favorites in the NFC West. But after starting the season 0-5, that hope didn’t seem promising. Luckily for the 49ers, the division is wide open and anyone can win it. The Rams and Seahawks currently sit atop the division standings with a 4-4 record. Despite starting 0-5, it’s not out of the question for the 49ers to come back and win the division. But in order to do so, they must get a win at home over the Saint Louis Rams on Sunday. That will pull the 49ers within a game of the Rams. Both teams are coming off their bye, so both teams should be prepared for a hard-fought division rivalry battle.
Before their bye, the 49ers won two of their last three games to get to 2-6 for the season. They defeated the Raiders at home before losing at Carolina. Then, they won 24-16 over the Broncos in a game played in England. Troy Smith took over as the new QB for the 49ers, replacing Alex Smith. In the win over the Broncos, Smith was 12-for-19 passing for 196 yards and a touchdown. Frank Gore had 29 carries for 118 yards and a touchdown. The 49ers allowed 369 passing yards but only 59 rushing yards. They allowed Broncos WR Brandon Lloyd to catch seven passes for 169 yards and a touchdown. Delanie Walker led the 49ers in receiving with five catches for 85 yards. Michael Crabtree had three catches for 53 yards and a touchdown.
The Rams have had a solid season thus far behind rookie QB Sam Bradford. The Rams are 4-1 at home and 0-3 on the road this season. Three of their four losses have come by four points or less. Before the bye, the Rams won 20-10 over the Panthers at home. Bradford was 25-for-32 passing for 191 yards and two touchdowns. Rams RB Steven Jackson ran the ball 23 times for 59 yards. They picked off Panthers QB Matt Moore three times. They forced four turnovers total and didn’t commit any turnovers themselves. The Rams held the Panthers to 25 rushing yards for the game.
For the season, Jackson has 676 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Bradford has 1,674 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Danny Amendola leads the team in receiving with 45 receptions for 379 yards and two touchdowns.
Gore has 691 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns this season. He also has 38 receptions for 348 yards and two receiving touchdowns. Vernon Davis has 33 receptions for 434 yards and four touchdowns. Crabtree has 31 receptions for 385 yards and three touchdowns.
Both teams rely heavily on their running backs. Jackson and Gore will both get a lot of touches, by carries and passes. Neither QB – Bradford or Smith – is likely to dominate the game themselves. It will come down to which running back has a better game and which defense can create more turnovers. If one team can shut down the other running back and create a few turnovers, that team is very likely to win the game.
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The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog, 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win, and 4-1 ATS in their last five November games. The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 10 games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last six November games, 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a bye week, 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite, and 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.
The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams and 5-2 in the last seven meetings in San Francisco. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams. The Rams are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games against the 49ers and 1-4 ATS in their last five games in San Francisco.
Ryno’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Look for San Francisco to put on a convincing win here in what should be one of the easiest bets of the week.