Tampa Bay Bucaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction ATS

by | Nov 24, 2021 | nfl

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS)

Date/Time: Sunday, November 28, 1:00 PM EST

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis

TV: CBS

Point Spread: TB -3/INDY +3 (Bovada - You’re missing out if you’re not taking advantage of their awesome live betting platform! It’s the BEST! They give you a 50% bonus too!)

Over/Under Total: 51

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs head to Indy for a Week 12 match-up with Colts this week. BETANYSPORTS.EU is making the defending champs 3 point road favorites, so let’s back the home dogs and buy Colts tickets. Here are three reasons.

Indy’s Running Attack Might Be Unstoppable

The Colts are coming off what might be the most impressive display of running the ball of the 2021 season. They went into Buffalo to take on a top 5 defense and racked up 264 rushing yards on the way to a dominant 41-15 victory. They got off the bus running and didn’t stop until the final horn sounded. Jonathan Taylor nudged his way into the MVP discussion, accounting for 185 of those yards and four touchdowns on the ground to go with one receiving score. The Colt offensive line mauled the Bills front seven and will look to repeat the performance this week against another top 5 defense. Indy is tied with the Browns atop the league in yards per carry at 5.2, and Sunday was the second time in 3 weeks they have topped 260 rushing yards. Carson Wentz is a much better quarterback when the running game is working, and last week he only needed to throw for 106 yards to get the win. The Colt offensive line went into Buffalo the healthiest they have been this year, but guard Quenton Nelson aggravated a nagging ankle injury in the second half. It appears he will play this week, which is a big plus for Indy.

This will definitely be a strength against strength battle as the Buc defense has not been run on all year. They only allow 3.7 yards per carry and 81 rushing yards per game. Many of their opponents have basically game-planned not to run, but that won’t be the case this week. DC Todd Bowles did lose star defensive tackle Vita Vea in Week 10, and he is questionable this week. The Giants had no success on the ground (or in the air), but we can’t read anything into that. Bowles also loves to bring the heat, so when Indy is in obvious passing situations, Wentz will have to deal with pressure. Look for the Colts to be able to run the ball and score this week. They have averaged 33 points per game over their last six and were only held under 30 once in that span. I think the running game stays on track, and the Bucs offense is forced to keep up.

Brady Has Struggled on the Road

 

The Tampa offense has been erratic through the first three months of the 2021 campaign. Through 10 games, they have scored over 30 points in all 5 of their home games and less than 30 in all 5 of their road games. Tom Brady has been held under 300 passing yards in three of those road games while only failing to reach 300 yards once at home, which was a blowout win against the Falcons. As we get close to December and January football, we expect Brady will get it together, but the troubles on the road may show up again this week. The Bucs running game has shown some weakness in the past month that could also be a warning sign. They had topped 100 yards 4 games in a row prior to only totaling 124 yards in 2 games against the Saints and the Football Team. Last week they managed 94 against the Giants, but lead back Leonard Fournette has been showing some fatigue. Tampa had previously shared the backfield duties between Fournette and Ronald Jones, but coach Jones lives in Coach Bruce Arians doghouse and doesn’t make it on the field for meaningful snaps. One cause for concern for Colts backers is that the Buc receivers are finally getting healthy. Gronk was back and played well last week, and he should be 100% this week, while Antonio Brown may make it back this week. Chris Godwin has been hampered with ankle injuries, and he is also getting closer to being fully healthy.

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The Colts D shut down the Bills offense last week and is playing their best ball of the year. Eight weeks ago, shutting down the Bills would have been a major accomplishment, but now they are in a rut, so we can’t know how much credit goes to the Colt defense. Indy’s defense ranks 20th in the league in both rushing yards per attempt and passing yards per attempt. Their defense has generally started strong and had trouble as the games have progressed. Tampa has protected Brady better than any quarterback in the league, and Indy’s pass rush has only been mediocre, but they will have to get pressure on Brady this week. I think Tampa’s road struggles don’t just go away this week. Their running game is not pulling their weight, and Brady isn’t setting the world on fire on the road. Indy won’t completely shut the Champs down, but keeping them in the 20s should be expected.

Tampa Isn’t Covering Spreads

The Buccaneers are only 4-6 ATS this year, 4-1 at home, and 0-5 on the road, and they have been favored in all 5 of those games. They have only won two of those games outright and failed to reach 20 points twice in those five games. At the same time, the Colts have been red-hot ATS, posting a 7-4 mark and 5-2 as an underdog. Despite the divergence of ATS success, the Colts are still getting a field goal at home in this game. Indy has won six of their last eight - the two losses coming in overtime, is coming off of a big win in Buffalo, while the Bucs have won only one of their previous three, but there is still value on the Colts. Indy is getting a field goal in this contest, but the spread could easily be Pick.

Play the Home Dog Colts

Count on Indy to keep this game close and have a chance to win as the clock winds down. Play the Colts +3. Did you know… that our best weekly selections are posted on our free picks page? Bookmark it and check back daily! Always 100% FREE!

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