Tennessee Titans (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
NFL Week 4
Date and Time: September 28, @ 1:00 PM E
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium
TV: DirectTV Sunday Ticket
by Jeff Hochman, Pro Handicapper, JHSportsline.com
Point Spread: TEN +7.5/IND -7.5
Over/Under Total: 45.5
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The Tennessee Titans will be looking to snap its two game losing streak when they face the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Last week, the Titans lost 33-7 to the Bengals as 7-point road underdogs. They outgained the Bengals by 26 yards but that was mostly when the game was out of reach. Tennessee is 2-1 ITS (in the stats) this season and has played better than its record would indicate. The Titans are 7-3 ITS in their last 10 games dating back to last season. It’s been costly fumbles and the inability to score in the red-zone that has cost the Titans a lot of close victories. The Colts destroyed the Jaguars 44-17 as 7-point road favorites. Indianapolis outgained the Jaguars by 185 yards and are 1-2 ITS this season. The Colts have been winning a lot games they could have easily lost. They are just 4-6 ITS dating back to last season.
The Colts are just 3-7 SU in their last 10 games dating back to last season. Last week’s victory snapped a seven game losing streak. We are getting tremendous line value based on what happened last Week. Tennessee lost to arguably one of the Top 3 teams in all of football, while the Colts won big against a team that is struggling to find an identity. I am huge fan of Andrew Luck’s tremendous skill-set and rarely will look to bet against him. Division underdogs with the better defense is my cup of tea. The Colts are allowing 387.7 yards per game while the Titans are allowing just 304.3 yards per game. Indianapolis is struggling to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. If Jake Locker starts this game, he should be able to find some holes in the Colts’ passing defense. The host is allowing 276 yards per game through the air while the Titans are allowing just 170. Locker is listed as questionable so that makes this a very tough game to predict. I like the Titans with a healthy Locker. Check his status as we get closer to game time. I would stay away from this game if he misses practice on Friday. Charlie Whitehurst would get the start and make this play not as strong.
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The Colts have a big revenge game on deck against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs in 2013. It will be first time the Colts and Ravens will play since that game. Lets hope Jake Locker starts because he gives the Titans the best chance to keep this game within the number. The Colts have dominated the Titans of late, going a perfect 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The Colts have not laid over a touchdown to the Titans in over 5 years. Tennessee head coach Ken Whisenhunt is 22-10 SU and 25-7 ATS in his career versus a foe off a straight up double digit win, including 10-1 ATS in the division.
Back in December of last season, the Colts defeated the Titans 22-14 as 3.5-home favorites. The win was a bit fluky as the Titans outgained the Colts 347-264. The Under is 14-4 in the last 18 meetings. The underdog should be the right side in lower scoring games. The Colts are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons. The Colts are a very impressive 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS at home over the last three seasons.
Jeff’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Tennessee Titans +7.5
There’s a lot to like from the underdog except the question mark at Quarterback. Check Locker’s status as we get closer to game time. If he’s declared OUT, this line might jump to 8.5 or even 9 points.
