Titans vs. NY Giants Pick & Prediction

by | Dec 14, 2018 | nfl

Tennessee Titans (7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS) vs. New York Giants (5-8 SU, 7-5-1 ATS)
When: Sunday, December 16th, 2018 – 1:00 PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, NJ
TV: CBS
By: Keith Franks, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: TEN +2.5 / NYG -2.5
Total: 43.5
Power Rankings: New York -3

Takeaways From Week 14

Tennessee comes in off a dominant 30-9 win last Thursday when they hosted divisional rival Jacksonville. The play of the night was running back Derrick Henry’s 99-yard touchdown scamper where he ran through everything that dare cross his path. The victory also showcased the Titans ability to flex their muscles on their own pitch in the Music City as they improved to 5-1 SU in Nashville.

The Giants continued their late season surge as they have no won their fourth game in their last five outings as they decimated the Washington Redskins 40-16 in D.C., covering as a three-point favorite. The victory marks New York’s third consecutive cover and their first win this season as a favorite against the spread.

How the Public is Betting the Tennessee- New York Game

Presently, 53% of the consensus like the G-Men in this spot. There have been no line movements as a result of what appears to be a more-or-less balanced distribution of action on both sides. What has to be highlighted is the -2.5 number the Giants are spotting which is nearly identical to where they closed last week and moreover is an underdog-friendly number as the figure is designed to attract action on the chalk by virtue of a green-up through a win by field goal.

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The Historicals

Due to the fact this is a cross-conference match-up these two teams only meet once every four years. The last meeting in Nashville in 2014 resulted in a 36-7 blowout orchestrated by Big Blue as a three-point favorite. Previous to this, the Titans won the previous five meetings between the two sides dating back to 1997.

Injury Concerns

A significant narrative surrounding this affair is the day-to-day injury of Giants’ star receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. OBJ was unavailable for the Giants’ last outing against the Redskins but clearly the G-Men did not miss a step there without him. His status remains uncertain for the upcoming match with Tennessee. This will be disadvantageous for the Giants as they will need all the help they can get in passing activities as they are up against the sixth-ranked passing defense in the NFL as Tennessee gives up just 219.2 yards per game through the air.

When Tennessee Has the Ball

Tennessee’s bread and butter has always been their rushing attack. Derrick Henry embellished that principle last week and the Titans have been proficient in this department as they average a 12th-ranked 124.3 yards per game. Outside of their success in the run game, the Titans offense is pedestrian in scoring as they collate just 19.3 points per game (27th in the NFL). Nevertheless, Tennessee should find success with Henry against a Giants defense giving up a 22nd ranked 121.8 rushing yards per game.

When New York Has the Ball

A central story line surrounding the Giants for most of the season was their inability to score and the porous play of their offensive line. However, Big Blue have since shifted gears as they have found a rhythm. The Giants have broken the 30-point threshold in three of their previous outings and have averaged 35 points in their previous two games against both Chicago and Washington, teams known for their defensive acumen. Rookie running back Saquon Barkley is flirting with Rookie of the Year accreditation as he has rushed for 1,124 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. He will be the one that Big Blue lean on against a 17th-ranked Tennessee rushing defense that gives up 115.2 yards per game. The Giants kicking game has been stellar, hitting a league-best 96.6 % of their attempts.

Betting Trends

The most noteworthy trend that applies to this series is the fact that Tennessee had built a five-game cover streak previous to New York’s most recent win between the two teams in 2014.

Weather Report

The forecast for kick-off calls for an overall chilly and cloudy day with temperatures hovering around 40 degrees. There bodes a 74% chance of precipitation with humidity levels also hanging around the 71% mark.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Tennessee Money Line at 

+125

This is one of those games that could go either way as it will very well likely be settled by a mere possession, perhaps the last one in the game. The Giants’ recent run of successes is a bit of a misnomer. This is a team that beat up on a nicked-up Washington team, preceded by an overtime win against a Chicago Bears bunch that very well was likely looking past the Giants in preparation for their showdown with Los Angeles, last Sunday. Previous to this, the Giants other two wins previous to their one loss over this span to Philly came on the fortuitous end of two games settled by a combined seven points that could have easily gone the other way against teams such as San Francisco and Tampa Bay. The Giants could easily be 3-10 SU on the year if the bounces went against them and in that case there would be an entirely different analysis of this outfit. Embellishing upon this idea, takers will likely place more stock in Tennessee’s 2-5 SU road record. However, when you take a closer look at who this team played outside of Nashville, it is a very comprehensive load. Tennessee had to lock horns in notoriously hostile environments when they tussled with divisional rivals Houston and Indianapolis who were both red-hot at the time of the game. Previous to this, the Titans defeated Dallas in Big D and nearly pulled an upset of the Los Angeles Chargers in the City of Angels when they fell by a point. In fact, two of Tennessee’s road losses were settled by just one point and had that one point swung in the other direction in both instances, Tennessee would be favored here for sure with a far more captivating 9-4 SU record. The Giants will be a step down by comparison in terms of quality. Very simply, we are getting the better team at the better price at an underdog-conducive number thanks to bad breaks going Tennessee’s way while the bounces went with the G-Men. Trade the points away here to maximize profit and grab the Titans outright.

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