TNF: Chargers vs. Raiders Pick ATS

by | Nov 5, 2019 | nfl

65Los Angeles Chargers (4-5 SU, 3-4-2 ATS) vs. Oakland Raiders (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS)

NFL Week 10

Date/Time: Thursday Night Football, November 7, 2019 at 8:20PM EST

Where: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, California

TV: Fox/NFL

Point Spread: LAC -1/OAK +1 (GTBets - 100% REAL CASH Bonus!)

Over/Under Total: 48

The Los Angeles Chargers take on the Oakland Raiders at the Coliseum on Thursday Night Football in AFC west action in week ten. Both teams are coming off wins last week. The Chargers beat the Packers, 26-11, winning their second in a row and now looking to get to .500, something that seemed inconceivable as they were mired in dysfunction a few weeks ago. The Raiders returned to the .500 mark last week, beating the Lions, 31-24. Who can get it done this week in this first meeting this season between these divisional rivals?

Chargers Finally Looking Like the Chargers

Last week was the first time the Chargers looked like the team many had expected this season. With the offense finally turning over and the defense holding a 7-1 Packers team to under 200 total yards, the Chargers finally looked like a contender for at least a one-game window. Longtime fans will remember a slew of second-half surges by this team, and they now look to do likewise this season.

A few things are looking up for the Chargers. On offense, Philip Rivers has finally cut down on mistakes, and without those, the offense at least has a fighting chance. With placekicking an ongoing issue, getting their projected starter back in Michael Badgley finally paid off last week. Melvin Gordon, perhaps having needed more time to warm up after the holdout, ran for two TDs last week, and with Austin Ekeler adding 70 more on the ground, the Chargers’ run-game looked really good for a change. Getting a healthy TE Hunter Henry producing within this system has given this offense a real gust of wind in its sails. Along with Mike Williams coming into his own and Keenan Allen due for a big game, this offense finally looks dangerous.

The Chargers’ defense was beaten up on the injury-front. Getting some pieces back in the rotation has started to pay off. Melvin Ingram returning gives the Chargers their pass-rushing menace, and against Green Bay, both he and Joey Bosa had 1.5 sacks. There are still more guys due to return, making it so this side of the ball could be a part of the team that gets better and better over time.

Retooling Our Understanding of the Raiders

At 4-4, it’s fair to say the Raiders have at least mildly exceeded expectations. They have been dangerous and competitive. More important is the effort, as we see a team really getting after it and playing with passion. Late in games, it hasn’t always worked out, but they go for the gusto. Some things are falling into place that could resonate well in this game. Their run-game is blowing up with rookie Josh Jacobs. With over 120 yards on the ground in three of his last four games, look for Oakland to feed the Chargers’ defense a steady dose of the run game. With other backs who can catch passes and contribute, we are seeing a productive backfield in Oakland for the first time in years.

There are a few aspects of the Raiders’ offense that catch a lot of flack and perhaps not rightfully so. Derek Carr might fall short of what people think of when pondering an elite quarterback. But with over 71% completions, he’s been doing well and is in lock-step with coach Gruden. They may have lost what was supposed to be their main contributor on offense, but with Darren Waller stepping up, along with different receivers chiming in, the aerial attack isn’t so bad. The Raiders’ offensive line, with substandard play and injuries, has also been cited as a weak spot. But for what it’s worth, since coming off the bye three games ago, they have yielded one lone sack. With how they’re protecting Carr and helping spring the run-game, they haven’t been too shabby.

Matchup Issues for Each Team

For the Raiders, there are drawbacks in this matchup. Seeing Philip Rivers starting to sharpen up, one might bristle at the prospects of how a last-ranked Oakland pass-defense might perform in this spot. On Sunday, they only gave up 24 points to Detroit, but Matthew Stafford threw for over 400 yards, and it’s an ongoing problem. Against all the Chargers’ weapons, will this weakness materialize in a significant way? And while the O-line has been better, will they adequately contain the Bolts’ pass-rush or will they see them revert to prior form?

We saw what the Chargers were capable of when running the ball well and how it opens everything up. But the Raiders have been serviceable in defending the run. At home, will they be able to stifle a Chargers’ run-game that hasn’t fired this season very often? The Chargers’ defense is pretty strong against the pass, but with a blossoming Oakland ground-game, they will be tested and haven’t been able to stifle opposing running backs with regularity this season. That could be a definite issue.

Take the Home Team

Granted, there are some matchup concerns, namely with how the Chargers’ offense could take to the air against this group and how well Oakland will take to the air against a stout and playmaking Chargers’ secondary. But the Chargers are allergic to high expectations. As everyone was shoveling dirt on them, they thrived in the last two weeks. With some expectations back in place, it might not be the best spot for this version of the Chargers. The Raiders certainly have issues, but might be a tad underrated and getting a point at home, I see them getting the better value here. I’m taking Oakland.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Oakland Raiders plus one point. In games like this where neither side is “rock solid”, but you still want to bet it to have action, a teaser bet is a nice alternative to wagering on the side or total. A teaser allows you to move the line anywhere from 6-19 points. You can find these wagers as well as -105 pricing on sides/totals at BetAnySports

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