Washington at Dallas Odds, Analysis, Free Pick ATS

by | Sep 28, 2022 | nfl

Washington Commanders (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
NFL Football Week 4
Date/Time: Sunday October 2nd, 2021. 4:05PM (EST)
Where: AT&T Stadium Arlington, TX
TV: FOX

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: WAS +3/DAL -3
Total: 41.5

The Dallas Cowboys captured their 2nd straight victory on Monday Night with a 23-16 victory over the New York Giants, thanks primarily to a huge rushing performance from the duo of running backs, Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. Not only was it the 2nd straight victory, but it was the 2nd straight victory with backup QB Cooper Rush who moved to 3-0 as a starter for the Cowboys. With QB Dak Prescott still sidelined with an injury, the Cowboys will once again rely on Rush this Sunday when the Cowboys host the Washington Commanders inside AT&T Stadium for a rivalry showdown.

The visiting Commanders will be mere 3-point underdogs following two straight losses to the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles, who have both played really well throughout the opening weeks of the season. Most recently, the Commanders suffered a 24-8 loss to the Eagles on an afternoon where the offense was stymied to just 240 total yards. QB Carson Wentz has been forced into more than 40 passing attempts in each of the first three games due to a non-threatening rushing attack, and I think everyone that follows football understands the concerns of Wentz throwing 40 passes per game. Luckily for Washington, Dallas is not a high-scoring team with Rush behind center, and that fact improves the Commanders chances to bounce back this week.

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

Despite the fact Cooper Rush played an excellent game against the Giants, I’m not exactly sold that we can expect great performances on a week-to-week basis. Perhaps I just need to see more from Rush, but I am not raising my expectations at this point. With that said, I still think the Cowboys can be very effective with a heavy dose of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott and play off the running threat. The Commanders have been pretty bad against the run allowing 128 yards per game, and that is against really poor rushing attacks. I don’t think that will get the job done this week when they get their biggest test of the season against an elite rushing attack in Dallas.

Another reason I believe this match-up favors Dallas is focused on the other side of the ball. I mentioned earlier that QB Carson Wentz has attempted 40-plus passes in each game this season, and that can’t happen again this week against the Cowboys’ pass rush. The problem is that the Commanders have shown no sign of improving the running game. The offensive line has not looked good, RB Antonio Gibson has not played well, and RB Brian Robinson is not even eligible to return until week 5. As a result, I think the Commanders are going to be forced into another game script where they rely heavily on the pass. While receivers Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson are underrated talents, the Cowboys’ secondary matches up well against this passing attack. Not to mention, the Cowboys’ pass-rush is really stout with everyone healthy, and I think that is going to be trouble for Wentz, who was sacked a lucrative nine times in last week’s loss to Philadelphia.

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting History and Trends

  • Washington has hit the “under” in 10 of the last 15 games
  • Washington is 2-5 ATS in the last 7 games against Dallas
  • Dallas is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 games
  • Dallas has hit the “under” in 11 of the last 15 games
  • Dallas is 13-5 SU in the last 18 meetings against Washington
  • Dallas is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings against Washington
  • The “over” has cashed in 10 of the last 13 meetings between the Commanders and Cowboys
  • The “over” has cashed in the last seven games between the Commanders and Cowboys in Dallas

More Picks: Bears vs. Giants Analysis & Spread Pick 10/2/22

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Prediction

Despite all the talk around the quarterback position, I think the Cowboys found their identity last week with the heavy rushing attack between Pollard and Elliott. Unlike in the past, both tailbacks were on the field often and were able to give many different looks. I think that works well again this week, and I expect the Cowboys’ pass rush to be disruptive.
Jay’s Pick: Take Dallas -3

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