Washington Redskins vs. New England Patriots Preview and Pick

Washington Redskins (4-2) +16 , o/u 48 at New England Patriots (7-0), 4:15 pm Eastern Sunday, Fox
by Zman of Predictem.com

The New England Patriots look to continue their march toward history when they host the Washington Redskins in an NFL inter-conference battle Sunday afternoon in Foxboro.

New England is undefeated at 7-0 and has won every game by at least 17 points. Last week the Patriots barely broke a sweat despite playing in Miami, beating the Dolphins 49-28 after leading at the half 42-7. The Pats also provided their financial backers with reason to smile, cashing in as 16-point road favorites.

So New England now leads the AFC East Division by 4 games over the second-place
Buffalo Bills.

Washington is 4-2 and in third place in the NFC East, a game and a half back of the division-leading Dallas Cowboys, after beating the Arizona Cardinals last week 21-19. But the Redskins totaled just 160 yards of offense vs. Arizona and got outgained by over 200 yards. They also nearly blew a 21-6 fourth-quarter lead, and failed to cover the spread as eight-point home chalk.

On the season, Washington is 2-2-2 against the spread, 1-1 straight up and 1-0-1 ATS on the road.

The Patriots are 3-0 both SU and vs. the numbers at home this year.

Skins QB Jason Campbell looked like he was coming along nicely, and then he threw for only 95 yards last week. On the season, Campbell has completed 60% of his passes for a 5/5 TD/INT ratio and a mediocre 78.5 passing rating.

On the other side of this match-up, New England QB Tom Brady is having a season for the ages. He’s simply completed 74% of his throws (!) for a 27/2 TD/INT ratio (again!) and a 137.9 passing rating.

Washington is outscoring opponents on average this season 20-15, outgaining foes 305-277 and outrushing them 115-81.

The Patriots are outscoring opponents this season 40-17, outgaining them 433-275 and outgrounding them 133-92.

These two teams last met in a game that actually mattered back in September of 2003, when the Redskins snuck by the Pats 20-17.

These two teams have played one common opponent so far this year. Washington beat Miami 16-13 in overtime in week one, while, as mentioned above, New England beat the Dolphins last week 49-28. The Redskins outgained Miami 400-273 that day, and outrushed the Fish 191-66, while the Patriots outgained Miami 443-382 but got outgrounded 179-84. But the stats are a bit misleading on the New England win over the Dolphins; because of several quick strikes by Brady and his gang, Miami actually held a 35/25 time-of-possession advantage, despite never being in the game.

One thing that could distract the Pats from their business this Sunday is a looming match at also-undefeated Indianapolis next week. But over the last few seasons, no other team in the league has taken things game-by-game better than Coach Belichick’s boys.

The o/u is 1-5 in Washington games this season, which are averaging 35 points per, while the totals are 6-1 in Patriots games, which are averaging a whopping 57 points.

New England opened as 16-point home chalk for Sunday’s game, with a total of 49. The Pats have since been bet up at least a half-point at most sportsbooks, while the total has been bet down a point or so. Also, the Patriots are listed at right around -1600 on the moneyline, with the Skins getting around +1100.

Zman’s Pick: The bookies are out to slaughter the public this week. We’re taking Washington here as their hanging a number that is astronomically high!