Week 15 Picks: Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos

by | Dec 15, 2020 | nfl

Buffalo Bills (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) vs. Denver Broncos (5-8 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Week 15 NFL

Date/Time: Saturday, December 19, 2020 at 4:30PM EDT

Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver. Colorado

TV: NFL Network

Point Spread: BUF -6/DEN +6 (Find the best bonus - 100%!!!)

Over/Under Total: 50

The Buffalo Bills come to Mile High for a week 15 AFC battle with the Denver Broncos on Saturday. Both teams are coming off nice wins on Sunday. The Broncos showed that this season still means something to them, scoring a 32-27 road-win over the Panthers. At 8-5 ATS, they’ve actually been a solid choice for bettors. The Bills showed on Sunday Night Football that they are real contenders, handing the Steelers a 26-15 loss, their 6th win in 7 games. They face a tricky road-game against a deceptively-dangerous opponent this week. Who will cover the spread on Saturday?

Don’t Sleep On Denver

Granted, some things haven’t gone according to plan this season for the Broncos. A defense that looked to be up-and-coming was sapped of its potential by an uncanny run of injuries on that side of the ball. Meanwhile, a retooled offense was also bitten by the injury bug while seeing other pieces not congeal with the team-puzzle as they had hoped. But through it all, they are covering spreads and remaining competitive in spots. The last month shows what they can do—beating Miami, getting thumped by New Orleans, losing respectfully and easily covering against the Chiefs, then beating the Panthers last week. And with Buffalo closing its season with two games against divisional opponents and having just beaten the Steelers, maybe this is a sandwich spot where they overlook Denver in what is still a hard place to play, even without the home crowd.

Sunday was important for Denver QB Drew Lock, who again looks to close the season strong. He had 280 yards and four touchdowns on Sunday, finally making use of all his weapons. He connected twice with DJ Hamler for scores, with RB Melvin Gordon chipping in with some nice runs, along with Phillip Lindsay. It seems like sometimes they are handcuffed by coordinator Pat Shurmur. Even without Courtland Sutton, they have some good targets with Hamler, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, TE Noah Fant, along with two good running backs. And to see them go week after week, barely registering a ripple, has been upsetting. Therefore, Sunday’s mini-explosion was promising.

Can Denver Defense Affect Buffalo?

Buffalo is almost the full-manifestation of what Denver wants to eventually become. Josh Allen has really come into his own, and with all his weapons and Stefon Diggs having added a new dimension to this offense, it’s really taking off. Injuries have really leveled Denver, and their defense might not be that great overall, but coach Fangio keeps them on-point. Their pass defense has held up nicely and is pretty stout. It’s not altogether the most-disruptive group, but Buffalo’s offense is very pass-inclined, and maybe the Broncos “D” can hold firm in that regard. But with Allen’s legs, along with rising backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, maybe we can see a bigger dose of the run-game, an area where the beleaguered Denver defensive front sometimes suffers.

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Challenges for Denver

In the current state of the NFL, where the home crowd’s impact is gone, Denver might at least on paper represent the toughest road-spot, with its high altitude and cold conditions. But Buffalo is a cold-weather team. And some of the opponents who have come into Mile-High haven’t exactly seen their offenses screech to a halt, with Tampa scoring 28, Kansas City scoring 43, along with the Chargers Saints both scoring 31. Against a Buffalo offense that has become pretty steady in delivering close to their full scope of venom every week, we could see another good day for this Bills’ group.

Last week was a positive sign for Denver, but the Panthers have been showing waning levels of resistance in recent weeks. While they’ve been a relatively strong choice at the betting windows this season, it can be painful backing a team that is struggling so hard on offense. Before last week, they had scored 19 combined points in their last two games. While they can hope their defense keeps this respectable, the offense simply needs to produce, and that’s just not something that has at all been bankable this season.

How Denver Does Against Good Teams

This might just create more confusion, as the Broncos have been all over the place this season. They opened with close losses and covers against the Titans and Steelers. But conclusive losses to the Bucs, Chiefs, and Raiders followed. But then they beat Miami, got hammered by New Orleans, before playing the Chiefs really tight a few weeks ago. So when we look at the times they don’t cover, it’s usually been against good teams where they just can’t keep up with an offense that has scored 21 or fewer points nine times this season.

Take the Road Favorite

Both teams are 8-5 ATS, so from that standpoint, they’ve been pretty equal this season. But the stakes are higher for Buffalo, as they put the finishing touches on their playoff cause. But Denver has guys looking to make their case to be part of Denver’s future plans, so they have a lot to play for, as well. I just see this as being a bizarre spot for the Buffalo offense to suddenly grind to a halt or to slow enough to make this easy on the Denver defense, which should have their hands full. I see Buffalo using the run-game to greater effect on Saturday and getting some late separation on Denver as they cruise to the finish line for the win and cover.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Buffalo Bills minus 6 points.  You can also make the Denver Broncos a +26 home underdog by inserting them into a GIANT 20 point football teaser at BetAnySports! They also offer -105 on all sides and totals!

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