Wild Card Picks: Rams vs. Lions Spread Winner

The Los Angeles Rams come to Ford Field for an NFC Wild Card Playoff showdown with the Detroit Lions on Sunday. The Lions saw a lot of things come together this season with a 12-win year that ended with a 30-20 win over the Vikings on Sunday. The Rams, meanwhile, really exceeded expectations this year, making the playoffs against long odds. With most starters resting, they beat the Niners on Sunday, 21-20. Who do we get behind in this one?

The Danger in Overlooking the Rams

Going against the Rams this season has largely been a losing proposition. They were supposed to stink this season, and here they are. They had unsung people on the defensive side of the ball rise to the occasion while getting two giant additions to their offense in rookie Puka Nacua and emergent running back Kyren Williams. We also, perhaps, were a bit quick to write off Matthew Stafford after the team fell so hard from Super Bowl grace. With Williams in there, they have really been a different team, with his return to the lineup helping provide the push that got the Rams to this spot.

X-Factors

It’s an interesting matchup, with each team’s current quarterback being the former starter for the opposing team. Stafford will be returning to his old longtime stomping grounds with the stakes being high. The Rams have been up and down this season but enter this spot with seven wins in their last eight games. They’re going to need to do it on the road again this week, as this game is their third straight-road game. Detroit, meanwhile, faded a tiny bit after an 8-2 start but still entered this with some steam with three wins in their last four, their only loss being a one-pointer at Dallas.

Matchup Issues for the Rams

Even last week against the Niners and in other spots this season, the Rams have benefitted at times from not taking on the best offenses in the league or ones who weren’t at full power at the time they took on the Rams. And then we see some shaky results in their toughest matchups defensively—the first game against San Fran, as well as against the Ravens and Cowboys. With former Rams’ field general Jared Goff commandeering an offense jammed with talent, this is a spot where an overachieving Rams’ defense is maybe less bankable.

On top of a good line, the Lions can turn loose a dual-pronged running game with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. On top of a great number-one receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, they had a rookie in Sam LaPorta, who might be the next big thing at tight end. But with an injury last week, it’s looking like he will be out this week, a bad blow for the Lions. They now really need someone from a bunch of dangerous contributors from the supporting cast to step up to fill that void. In any event, I’d be a little worried as a Rams’ backer, and while being optimistic at how good they were at times this season, perhaps suspect some regression in a context such as this.

Drawbacks of Detroit This Week

The Detroit “D” will be facing a potentially vital offense this week. With Kyren Williams demanding attention and Puka Nacua having a nuclear rookie season, a Detroit defense that has spanned the spectrum of effectiveness this year is a concern. They can get after it and generate a lot of big plays, but maybe they’ve also got a good draw this season in terms of the offenses they have faced. With a Rams team that has their pieces mostly intact, this could be one of their more dangerous matchups of the season. And not that this should matter, but having not won a playoff game since 1991 and being 1-12 in the postseason since 1962 at least conveys a vague notion that until shown otherwise, the Lions are not locks in this realm.

What to Expect

While there is a range of outcomes, with both teams having seen their defenses play a bigger role than expected, it’s hard not to picture an abundance of offense on Sunday. And to put up a number, they’re going to need, and in the likely absence of LaPorta, Goff and this Detroit offense are going to need all their stars producing, from the 1-2 punch at running back to St. Brown and some other guys to rise to the occasion. Because with Kyren Williams rested and hitting a top gear just before the playoffs, the Rams have an offense that can be exceedingly dangerous, with guys in key spots like QB and head coach who know how to get it done this time of year. Whereas other higher-seeded playoff teams drew opponents who were either just slightly above average or who sagged at the end and crept into the postseason, the Lions didn’t exactly luck out getting an ascending Rams squad coming into town.

Take the Points

I suspect the Rams will be difficult to put away in what should be a competitive game where the hook might end up coming in handy. And on the surface, it might not seem like great value only getting 3.5 as of press time against a Lions team at home that is dangerous, hungry for success, and probably a little better in the trenches than the Rams. The LaPorta issue looms large, though, and not being able to match the Rams in terms of having all their big guns available is something that could manifest in a game where I see the Rams keeping it close and covering the spread. I’m going with the Rams this week.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Los Angeles Rams plus 3.5 points.