Arsenal at Wolverhampton Wanderers Pick 7/4/20
Arsenal (11-8-13, 46 points, 8th place) at Wolverhampton Wanderers (13-6-13, 52 points, 6th place)
When: Saturday, July 4, 12:30 p.m.
Where: Molineux, Wolverhampton, United Kingdom
Point Spread: Arsenal 0/Wolves 0
Moneyline: Arsenal +240/Wolves +125/Draw +225
Total: Over 2.5 (+105)/Under 2.5 (-139)
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Last Time Out:
Arsenal hammered Norwich City 4-0; Wolves edged Aston Villa 1-0.
The sides drew 1-1 on Nov. 2 at the Emirates Stadium in London.
About the Matchup:
Wolves still hasn’t allowed a goal since the restart, winning all three of its matches to nil against the relegation-threatened competition. They haven’t yet faced a top-half side like Arsenal, which seems to have shaken off a rusty start to get back in the thick of the race for the Europa League. A win here would do wonders for either side, as Wolves are tied with Manchester United for the final Champions League spot and sit just three points back of third-place Leicester City.
Arsenal doesn’t have enough time to catch up to the top teams, but with six matches to play, a Europa League spot is very possible for the Gunners. However, they’ve got to get wins wherever they can, as three of their final six matches are against a team in the top six, and they’ve got a rivalry match with fellow Europa League threat Tottenham. Nothing’s going to be easy for this Arsenal squad.
The Gunners benefited tremendously from the best tonic in the Premier League: playing Norwich City. It’s now rather clear that the Canaries have accepted their fate of relegation, which made them easy prey for Arsenal at the Emirates. But the Gunners have to do a better job of creating their own chances, because Wolves is unlikely to press the self-destruct button the way Southampton and Norwich did.
In both of their wins since the restart, the Gunners got an early goal because of a mistake by the opposing defense, which then allowed them to dictate the rest of the match. That isn’t going to happen this time. Wolves knows the threat that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang brings to the table, and they aren’t going to give him much to work with. He scored Arsenal’s only goal in the sides’ previous meeting, and Arsenal have to get him going again if they’re going to grab a result. One thing’s for sure: the six shots they had back in November won’t cut it.
Scouting Wolverhampton Wanderers:
Wolves are doing just enough to get wins, but they are finding wins, mainly because they have a stingy defense and a fine scorer in Raul Jimenez. Jimenez didn’t find the net against Aston Villa, but that’s the only time he’s failed to do so in three matches since the pause, and he had Wolves’ goal in the past meeting against Arsenal. What Aubameyang is to Arsenal, Jimenez is to Wolves, which makes this an interesting chess match.
Aside from Jimenez, look for Wolves to concede the possession advantage and instead make sure that Arsenal doesn’t get quality looks at the net. Arsenal had 57 percent of the possession in London, but Wolves outshot Arsenal, putting five on the frame. Wolves can handle losing the possession battle as long as it’s not quality possession, and the defense is good enough to prevent Arsenal from getting good looks.
Dan’s Best Bets:
Here’s something to know about this matchup: these teams are very evenly matched. Three of the past five meetings between the two have finished 1-1, and in each of the previous three matches, only one team scored in any one half, while the other got shut out. Because of that, there’s an intriguing prop bet I’d like to consider: the number of goals per half.
First, though, I think that a tie is very likely in this match. Both teams need this game, both can play defense, both have a magical striker, and the history is very much there. I think a draw where both teams score offers excellent value at +333.
For the props: I like the idea of each half having the same number of goals. I expect a draw, and if the pattern holds, that means one team will get shut out in the first half, and the other will get shut out in the second half. Having the same number of goals in each half pays at +220, and I think it’s a very strong bet.
The fact that three of the last five matches have finished 1-1 might have made a run of play bet attractive, as betting one side to lead and then tie pays at +325. But if you look closely at those numbers, that’s just the same thing as a tie with both to score, as there’s no way to hit that bet without both teams scoring. Be smart, and don’t leave that money on the table. Bet your soccer picks for FREE this weekend by taking advantage of a special “deposit $100 to $300 and receive a dollar for dollar match” from MyBookie! You must sign up through this special activation link to take advantage of this offer!
Dan’s Score Prediction:
Both teams need this match, and both are playing solid defense, not having given up a goal in a combined 450 minutes of Premier League soccer. Because of that, you could make a solid case for 0-0, but I think that Aubameyang and Jimenez will produce. 1-1 has a long history in this matchup, and I’m going to pick it again, taking that at +575 for my score prediction.