Arsenal vs. Tottenham and Pick to Win
Date:Sunday, November 6th 2016
Where: English Premier League Emirates Stadium, London, UK
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem
Match Odds: Arsenal 1/1, Tottenham 10/3, Draw 45/17
Moneyline: Arsenal (EVENS), Tottenham +333, Draw +265
Over/Under Best Market: UNDER 2.5 22/19 (+115)
There is arguably no bigger rivalry in the English Premier League than North Londons Derby, the Gunners of Arsenal against their neighbours Tottenham Hotspur. The first edition of this rivalry is set to take place Sunday at Emirates Stadium in the Highbury section of London, where the Gunners will assume the host duties against their bitter and hated foe. In the most recent encounter between both teams, the result was a deadlock thriller as the Gunners and Spurs drew for a 2-2 tie which had English Premier League implications on the line. At this occasion, Arsenal and Tottenham were jostling for second and third position as a potential backdoor champion on the heels of the defending champ Leicester City. A similar narrative is taking shape for both squads in the early stages of 2016.
Arsenal has been on a tear as of late as they are 5-0-1 in their last six fixtures and have won their last three in a row, most recently a 3-2 defeat of Ludogrets in Champions League play. Arsenal has also meandered near the top of the English Premier League table for most of the 2016/17 campaign and their offensive exploits have finally matched by some defensive proficiency. Arsenals only trouble as of recent? Middlesborough when the Gunners were held scoreless but did not concede in the process either. For Tottenham, the woes continue as the Spurs have lost two of their last three overall are without a win in their last six fixtures. Most recently, Spurs fell 1-0 to Bayern Levurksen in Champion Leagues Play. In the English Premier League, the Spurs were the first team to beat table-topper Manchester City at home earlier this season. So far a substantial sample of the public have jumped in on the Gunners at evens appearing to bode the most value for the prestigous North London team.
Believe it or not Arsenal has been beaten recently at the Emirates by Tottenham Hotspur, in fact it happened last season when the Spurs surged toward the top of the table. The Gunners are not impervious to defeat at the Emirates, Liverpool rolled them at home to kick off the 2016-17 effort and they have been on the receiving end of some shocking upsets. This narrative along with many others have been the reasons why Arsene Wenger has failed to capitalize on winning the English Premier League even when the best teams in the English Premier League had transitional years.
This is a tough market to approach because the Spurs are currently in sell mode from a public perspective. Many love Arsenal especially given the fact no juice is required. Given the stocks of both teams in this situation, Tottenham has an opportunity to be a great steal at the price offered here. Let us not forget that this is a team that is no longer a pushover by any means and has helped revitalize North London soccer. It is hard to lay Arsenal at home but it is not inconceivable to notch a draw. For Tottenham this would be a moral victory and for Arsenal this would keep them in position to stay where they are in terms of placement. Chances are this will be a nick and tuck type of affair with scoring opportunities kept to the minimum in a physical contest. The Gunners and Spurs will likely have to make the most of situations that go in their direction and as it is unlikely this game will be explosive by any stretch. Despite both Tottenham and Arsenal having the firepower to open this one up, the value is actually in the UNDER 2.5. Ultimately here we stand to risk two units for the potential of netting 3.80 if both teams draw and are held under.
Arsenal Recent Form
W Ludogrets 3-2
W Sunderland 4-1
W Reading 2-0
D Middlesborough 0-0
W Ludogrets 6-0
Tottenham Hotspur Recent Form
L Bayern Leverkusen 2-3
D Leicester City 0-0
L Liverpool 1-2
D Bournemouth 0-0
D Bayern Leverkusen 0-0
Keith’s Prediction for the Game: DRAW 45/17 (+265) and UNDER 2.5 22/19 (+115)