Barcelona vs. Inter Milan Match Preview and Pick – Betting Odds

Barcelona vs. Inter Milan Camp Nou, Barcelona, Spain 2:45 PM EST Wednesday April 28, 2010
by Jason Green at

Match Odds: Inter Milan 7.00 / Barcelona 1.40 / Draw 4.80
Over/Under: 2.5 goals
Moneyline: Inter Milan +585 / Barcelona -285 / Draw +425

On Wednesday night Barcelona hosts Inter Milan in the 2nd leg of the Champions League semifinals. Barcelona is the defending champion, but they have their work cut out for them, as they lost the first leg match in Milan 3-1. Barcelona must win 2-0 to progress to the finals, as if they allow Inter to score they will have to win 3-1 just to make it to a shootout.

Barcelona has a solid home record in both the Spanish La Liga and in the Champions League play and they did beat Arsenal 4-1 at home in the quarterfinals of the CL, so they have a legit shot in this match. The Inter Milan midfield dominated the 1st leg and if they win the midfield battle in this match Barcelona is in trouble.

Inter Milan is trying to reach the final of the European Cup for the first time since 1972 and they have never won a semifinal away leg in Europe’s top club championship.

Things are falling into place for Inter, as they not only have a solid lead heading into this match, but they overtook the lead in Italy’s Serie A over the weekend. Barcelona is also in 1st place in their domestic league and even though each team is in a fight in their own country this is each team’s biggest match of the season so far.

Barcelona has an uphill battle to progress to the Champions League final, but they have the squad to do it. However, if they play anything like they did in Milan they have no chance and will be watching the finals from home.

In Italy’s Serie A Inter Milan has scored 68 goals and given up 31 goals and in Spain’s La Liga Barcelona has scored 83 goals and given up 20.

Barcelona Recent Form:
4/24/2010 Barcelona 3 Xerez 1 (LaLiga)
4/20/2010 Inter Milan 3 Barcelona 1 (Champions League)
4/17/2010 Espanyol 0 Barcelona 0 (La Liga)
4/14/2010 Barcelona 3 Deportivo La Coruna 0 (La Liga)
4/10/2010 Real Madrid 0 Barcelona 2 (La Liga)

Inter Milan Recent Form
4/24/2010 Inter Milan 3 Atalanta 1 (Serie A)
4/20/2010 Inter Milan 3 Barcelona 1 (Champions League)
4/16/2010 Inter Milan 2 Juventus 0 (Serie A)
4/13/2010 Fiorentina 0 Inter Milan 1 (Coppa Italia)
4/10/2010 Fiorentina 2 Inter Milan 2 (Serie A)

Barcelona is still without MF Andres Iniesta because of an injury and that may hurt. DF Carles Puyol is suspended for the match and Gabriel Milito will likely get the start in his place. Yaya Toure may get the start on defense, as Sergio Busquets did not have a great match against Inter last week.

Dejan Stankovic is suspended for the match and will not play, but the big news for Inter Milan is the health of Wesley Sneijder. He has an injured hamstring, but he should still start in this match. Both Francesco Toldo and Davide Santon have gotten over minor injuries and each is a reserve and will be available for this match.

Barcelona has an Over/Under 2.5 goals record of 6-4 in their last 10 matches and Inter Milan is 5-5.

Lionel Messi and Zlatan Ibrahimovic are one of the best striker duo, if not the best, on the planet, but each was held in check in last week’s match and they, especially Messi, will have to produce some offense in this match. I think one of these guys will find the back of the net, as they will be on the attack all night long.

Inter’s strength is their midfield and Barcelona’s MF Xavi will be a big key in this match both setting up the strikers and playing solid defense.

Inter striker Diego Milito scored a goal and had 2 assists in last week’s match in Milan and he will have to be marked all match by Barcelona.

Julio Cesar has been solid in goal all season and played great in Milan in the 3-1 win, but he will not keep a clean sheet in this match with Barcelona pushing forward on offense all match long.

Jason’s Pick: I think it will be very hard for Inter Milan to win this match, but since their counter attack is so solid I do not think they will go scoreless. That one goal will be key, as their defense will do the rest and help them progress to the Champions League final. I see Barcelona winning 2-1 or a 1-1 draw, which will end Barcelona’s Champions League run.