Fiorentina vs. Inter Milan Pick – Match Odds

Fiorentina vs. Inter Milan -Italy Serie A Match Preview, Stadio Artemio Franchi Florence, Italy 2:45 PM EST Sunday February 17, 2013
By Jason Green, Soccer Handicapper,

Match Odds: Fiorentina 2.05 / Everton 3.60 / Draw 3.30
Moneyline: Fiorentina +105 / Inter Milan +250 / Draw +230
Over/Under: 2.5 goals

NOTE: Inter Milan faces CFR Cluj in the Europa League competition on Thursday night, so check the injury reports for key injuries.

This is a key match in Serie A, as Inter Milan is in 4th place in the league table, 13 points behind league leader Juventus, and Fiorentina is in 6th place only 4 points behind Inter. While catching Juve may be a pipe dream for each team both still look to finish in the top 4 to secure an automatic Champions League berth for next season.

Fiorentina has been decent in the last few weeks with 2 wins, 1 loss, and 1 draw in their last 4 league matches. They may have oto play good defense in this match, as they offense is not in top form only scoring 4 goals in their last 4 matches and they were shut out in their last match, which was a 2-0 loss to Juventus.

Inter was close to Juve a few weeks back, but they have fallen down the league table with 1 win, 1 loss, and 2 draws in their last 4 matches. They have really struggled on the road, as they have not won away from Milan since early November when they scored a HUGE win over Juventus.

Inter is a tale of 2 teams, as at home they are great and on the road not so much. They have not scored more than 1 goal on the road since November 11th and they lost that match.

Both teams have pretty much identical stats, as Inter has scored 39 goals and conceded 29 this season and Fiorentina has scored 41 goals and conceded 29.

In late September these 2 teams met in Milan with Inter winning 2-1. In that match Fiorentina won the time of possession battle even on the road and Inter must play better in the midfield in this match.

Inter scored 3 goals in their last match with Diego Milito (9 goals) finding the back of the net and Fiorentina has to key on him as well as the duo of Antonio Cassano and Rodrigo Palacio, who have combined for 14 goals on the season. Inter really need the points in this match, so look for them to attack from the opening whistle. I think Milito will score in this match even though Fiorentina will key on him.

Stevan Jovetic (9 goals) leads the Fiorentina attack, but they really have a solid midfield and 6 players have at least 3 goals this season. Inter must disrupt the home side in the middle of the field and not let the hosts dictate the pace of the match.

I look for Inter Milan G Samir Handanovic to have a solid match and while he will play well leading the defense he will not keep a clean sheet.

Look for this to be a testy and physical match, as in the first meeting of the season between the 2 there were 34 combined fouls, 7 yellow cards, and even a red card.

Fiorentina Recent Form

1/16/2013 Fiorentina 0 AS Roma 1 (Coppa Italia)
1/20/2013 Fiorentina 1 Napoli 1 (Serie A)
1/27/2013 Catania 2 Fiorentina 1 (Serie A)
2/3/2013 Fiorentina 2 Parma 0 (Serie A)
2/9/2013 Juventus 2 Fiorentina 0 (Serie A)

Inter Milan Recent Form

1/20/2013 AS Roma 1 Inter Milan 1 (Serie A)
1/23/2013 AS Roma 2 Internazionale 1 ( Coppa Italia)
1/27/2013 Inter Milan 2 Torino 2 (Serie A)
2/3/2013 Siena 3 Inter Milan 1 (Serie A)
2/10/2013 Internazionale 3 Chievo Verona 1 (Serie A)

Jason’s Pick to Win: Inter has really struggled away from their home pitch in the last few months, but I think that will change in this match. They will play well in the midfield and that will be the key and Milito will score and lead Inter to a 2-1 win. Inter will be watching the Friday night game when AC Milan hosts Parma and with a win AC Milan will leapfrog Inter into 3rd place in the league and Inter will want to keep in front of their city rival and that will give them that much more motivation.