Germany vs. Slovakia and Pick to Win
Date:Sunday, June 26, 2016
Where: EURO 2016 Round of 16 Lillie, France
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem
Match Odds: Germany 1/2, Slovakia 21/2, Draw 37/10
Moneyline: Germany -200, Slovakia +1050, Draw +370
Over/Under Best Market: OVER 2.5 10/7 (+140)
Once again we are getting a rematch of an international friendly settled just weeks ago as the defending FIFA World Cup Champions, highly favored Germany will square off with Slovakia in a knockout stage match that has all the chips down on the table. The environment and venue is far different, as this contest is winner takes all and not a scrimmage by any means.
Slovakia has survived Group B, with the constituents of England, Wales and Russia. The Slovaks got off to a rough start with a 2-1 loss against Wales but they followed that up beautifully with four points in a win against Russia and draw against England. As a consolation Slovakia can hang their hat on losing to the Group B champions, Wales. This result fostered after they snagged twenty-two points in the qualification stage finishing second to only Spain in their group. Germany cleared seven points of their own in their Group C efforts. The Germans picked up wins over Ukraine and Northern Ireland while drawing Poland in a 0-0 stalemate in route to this fixture.
Nevertheless with Germany striving to vie for the Euro 2016 championship and respectfully showing just cause for that revelry, the Germans may enter with something to prove in this contest, be that Slovakia ravaged them 3-1 in their most recent meeting. Conversely, this narrative will likely feed Slovakias confidence and further enable and empower the Slovaks to believe that they can play with the World Champions on an even larger and immense stage than previously. This scenario is the ideal situation for Slovakia, they enter as an even larger pooch after defeating this very team convincingly a short term ago. Northern Ireland was positioned in similar fashion but they were not far from pulling off a stunning upset against Germany most recently and thus Slovakia is keen on the notion that just one goal can make the difference between a win and loss against the Germans. Slovakian shrugged off the woes of defeat and rebounded. Germany has all the spotlights on them and they are expected to win and win big. Furthermore, this outfit may actually be guilty of looking ahead to winner of the Italy and Spain, while Slovakia enters free-rolling on the notion they have nothing to lose and recent experience beating the Germans.
Germany requires an insane amount of juice in this fixture. As a result of this, laying the Germans is the sharp move when you consider the fact that the Slovaks have defeated this outfit. Nevertheless, we understand that Slovakia is not a comparable team to Germany but the sheer value in the odds suggests that taking back 10.5:1 odds on a win versus 3.7:1 odds on a draw has tremendous upside. Remember draws are out the window here, so backing teams to remain level in regulation is only advisable if the price dictates the play. In this situation we rather be more ambitious and pass on the chance of a stalemate. This contest will likely be settled in the first ninety and given the odds we can take back with this consideration, we will go ahead and take Slovakia.
As a result of both teams entering this fixture aggressively, there is also a great chance that scoring will be at a premium. In world football markets, there is no concrete over/under market but rather many different markets each with different odd pairings respectively. Over 2.5 offers the most upside because these teams have been involved in many high scoring affairs. Given the fact we get near +150 on just three total goals, it is fair play as one team can certainly rack up three goals by themselves in this one.
Germany Recent Form
W Northern Ireland 1-0 (Group)
D Poland 0-0 (Group)
W Ukraine 2-0 (Group)
W Hungary 2-0 (Friendly)
L Slovakia 1-3 (Friendly)
Slovakia Recent Form
D England 0-0 (Group)
W Russia 2-1 (Group)
L Wales 1-2 (Group)
D Northern Ireland 0-0 (Friendly)
W Germany 3-1 (Friendly)
Keith’s Prediction for the Game: Slovakia +1050 (21/2)