Germany vs. Slovakia and Pick to Win
Date: Sunday, May 29th
Where: International Friendly
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem
Match Odds: Germany 33/100, Slovakia 9/1, Draw 5/1
Moneyline: Germany -330, Slovakia +900, Draw +500
Over/Under Best Market: Under 3.0 131/100 (+131)
As The Euro 2016 championship heats up, many of the worlds international football teams will be involved in some International Friendlies to tune themselves up for the biggest tournament in the global football world, as all eyes will be on Europe from June to July. The defending FIFA World Cup Champions, top-rated and highly favored Germany will square off with Slovakia in a Friendly of little consequence to the Germans given the lofty campaign that awaits them.
Both the Slovaks and Germans have qualified for the Euro 2016 Tournament. Slovakia has landed themselves in the wide-open Group B, with the constituents of England, Wales and Russia awaiting them after they snagged 22 points in the qualification stage finishing second to only Spain in their group. Slovakia went 7-1-2 in their Group Stage, finishing with a goal difference of +9 and also earning the second-ranked distinction in scoring. Germany finished with identical numbers in their qualification campaign as well, as the Germans went 7-1-2 in Group E, finishing as winner in a more down-trodden qualification party. The German goal differential was far superior to Slovakia as they were +15, scoring 7 more goals than Slovakia overall in their qualification campaign. In Group C of the Euro 2016, Germany has a clear path to a clean sweep of the group, as their adversaries include Poland, Northern Ireland and Ukraine.
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Nevertheless with Germany striving to vie for the Euro 2016 championship and respectfully showing just cause for that revelry, the Germans may not go all-out in this contest and play many of their reserves in this fixture. With this being said, Slovakia racked up as many points in the group qualification stage as Germany and sported an identical record to the Germans. This narrative will likely feed Slovakias confidence and further enable and empower the Slovaks to believe that they can play with the World Champions. Let us not forget that Ireland pulled off a stunning upset against Germany in their qualification campaign and thus Slovakia is keen on the notion that just one goal can make the difference between a win and loss against the Germans. The recent 4-1 throttling of Italy by the Germans is likely to spawn an overreaction by the consensus after the Germans lost their last two International Friendlies by a total aggregate of 5-2. However, we wont buy in. Both teams will likely look to enter this fixture with caution and treat it as nothing more than scrimmage which opens up a strong possibility for a draw.
Given the fact that Germany requires a substantial amount of juice in this fixture, laying the Germans is certainly an academic move when you consider the fact that the Slovaks on paper have produced similar results in quality to the Germans. Nevertheless, we understand that Slovakia is not a comparable team to Germany but the sheer value in the odds suggests that taking back 5/1 odds on a draw has tremendous upside. If both squads treat this game as a dress rehearsal for the Euro 2016, the chance of a stalemate is highly likely and given the odds we can take back with this consideration, we cannot pass on the Draw.
In addition to the environment being affable for a draw, there is also a great chance that scoring will be capped as well. In world football markets, there is no concrete over/under market but rather many different markets each with different odd pairings respectively. Under 3.0 offers the most upside because it allows for each team to score once or for one team to win 2-0 and we still can take away a nice profit in that capacity. As stated previously, with all the changes to personnel and either side playing this affair cautiously, they will likely take less chances and as a result we can expect scoring to be kept to a minimum.
Germany Recent Form
W Italy 4-1 (Friendly)
L - England 2-3 (Friendly)
L France 0-2 (Friendly)
W Georgia 2-0 (Euro Qualification)
L Ireland 0-1 (Euro Qualification)
Slovakia Recent Form
D Ireland 2-2 (Friendly)
W Luxembourg 4-2 (Euro Qualification)
L Belarus 0-1 (Euro Qualification)
D Ukraine 0-0 (Euro Qualification)
L Spain 0-2 (Euro Qualification)
Keith’s Prediction for the Game: Draw +500 (5/1)