Netherlands vs. Argentina Prediction to Win - World Cup Match Preview - 1 PM EST Wednesday July 9, 2014 Arena Corinthians, So Paulo, Brazil
By Jason Green, Soccer Handicapper, Predictem.com
Match Odds: Netherlands 3.25 / Argentina 2.45 / Draw 3.20
Moneyline: Netherlands +225 / Argentina +145 / Draw +220
Over/Under: 2.5 goals
Argentina is in the semifinals of the World Cup for the first time since 1990 and they face a Netherlands’ squad that looks to make their 2nd straight World Cup final with a win.
The Dutch were the big betting favorite over Costa Rica in their last match, but the Central American squad played great defense keeping them scoreless. However, the Dutch won the match and advanced on penalty kicks.
Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben, who has not scored in the last 3 matches, each have 3 goals and they are the big guns on offense for the Dutch. They have to create their own scoring chances and get help on the attack from the midfield.
Argentina’s strength is their attack, obviously led by superstar Lionel Messi, but in the 2 matches in the knockout stage their defense has been solid not allowing a goal. However, the Dutch have a much better attack than Switzerland and Belgium, who are the squads Argentina beat to advance to the semis.
Can Messi get help from the other attackers in this match? That is a big question. He has had to carry the offense for most of the World Cup, but in the quarterfinal win over Belgium Gonzalo Higuain scored the only goal, which was his first of the tournament.
One of the reasons that Argentina has not fared well in the last several World Cups is that they rely too much on individual talent. While Messi is the key player he cannot do it all himself and if Argentina only relies on him they may be in trouble. Higuain and the other attacking players have to create scoring chances and they should have space since the Dutch will key on Messi.
One of the keys in this match for the Dutch is their counter-attack, which is one of their strengths. Argentina will be attacking from the opening whistle and the Netherlands has to pounce on counter chances, as they will get them.
Argentina’s MF Angel Di Maria has been playing great in the tournament and he injured his thigh in the quarterfinals and may miss this match. For the Dutch defensive MF Nigel de Jong is out with an injury and his loss is a big one since his squad needs all the defense they can get.
It is very important that the Dutch get a good match from Wesley Sneijder and the rest of the midfield. They not only have to create scoring chances and press on the attack, but also get back on defense to thwart Messi and company.
The Argentines had some poor passing in the match facing Belgium, but luckily it did not cost them. However, facing the Netherlands and their great attack they cannot allow that to happen again, especially on their side of the pitch.
While Argentina scored 6 goals in the 3 group matches they have only scored 1 each in each of their last 2 matches in the knockout stage. The Dutch are not known for their defense as well, but they have a clean sheet in 2 of their last 3 matches.
Argentina Recent Form
6/15/2014 Argentina 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 (World Cup)
6/21/2104 Argentina 1 Iran 0 (World Cup)
6/25/2014 Nigeria 2 Argentina 3 (World Cup)
7/1/2014 Argentina 1 Switzerland 0 (World Cup)
7/5/2014 Argentina 1 Belgium 0 (World Cup)
Netherlands Recent Form
6/13/2014 Spain 1 Netherlands 5 (World Cup)
6/18/2014 Australia 2 Netherlands 3 (World Cup)
6/23/2014 Netherlands 2 Chile 0 (World Cup)
6/29/2014 Netherlands 2 Mexico 1 (World Cup)
7/5/2014 Netherlands 0 Costa Rica 0 (World Cup)
Jason’s Prediction to win the Netherlands/Argentina Game: This one is a tough one to call, as each has a solid attack and a defense that has played well in the knockout stage. Still, with Messi and Higuain, the duo will be too much for the Dutch defense to handle and while the Netherlands will score, Argentina will come out on top and advance to the final.