Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (16-3 SU, 10-9 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (16-3 SU, 7-11-1 ATS)

Recommended Super Bowl LVII Prop Bets

Date/Time: Sunday February 12th, 2023. 6:30PM (EST)

Where: State Farm Stadium Glendale, AZ

TV: FOX

One of the biggest sporting events of the year will take place this Sunday at Super Bowl LVII, which will highlight a fantastic match-up between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles at State Farm Stadium. While the nation gets ready to watch one of the biggest sporting events of the season, bettors are preparing for one of the biggest betting events of the year as well. The Super Bowl has long stood as the pinnacle event of sports betting in the United States and the amount of various proposition (prop) bets has grown tremendously alongside the popularity of the NFL’s Championship Game.

While betting to some individuals is focused upon traditional point spread and point totals, the Super Bowl has become the event for placing odds on anything but the game. Bettors can place wagers on topics like the color of the winning team’s gatorade or the amount of time it will take Chris Stapleton to sing the national anthem. Needless to say, this is easily one of the most fun and exciting events of the year for bettors wanting to spice things up towards non-traditional betting lines. For this year’s big game, I have reviewed a bit of everything and want to provide some of my sharpest prop bets that I believe will net profits on Super Sunday!

DeVonta Smith over 66.5 receiving yards

In my total prediction for Super Bowl LVII, I highlighted the fact that I really like Philadelphia’s wide receivers in this match-up against Kansas City. Eagles’ receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for nearly 2,700 yards in the regular season as the best duo in the NFL. Brown is largely perceived as the Eagles #1 receiver but the gap isn’t as wide as most would expect. Devonta Smith has emerged into a player that produces WR1 numbers on a consistent basis. In fact, Smith has outperformed fellow WR1 A.J Brown in 4 of the last 5 games, including both playoff games. However, we have betting lines listed with A.J Brown projected at 76 yards and Smith getting a smaller number at 66.5 yards. In what I consider an ideal match-up against a tough Kansas City front, I expect the Eagles will resort to their talents in the passing game. Obviously, that bodes well for both of the Eagles’ star receivers. However, I believe DeVonta Smith is getting too much value with this mere 66.5 discounted projection especially for the bigger play threat of the two receivers. Needless to say, I’m locking this bet in before we see a higher number!

Kansas City over 3.5 punts

For those that are not aware, the Eagles’ produced the NFL’s top pass defense this season which yielded just 179 yards per game through the air. Therefore, Philadelphia’s defense is designed to slow down the pass-happy offense from Kansas City. Additionally, Philadelphia has also produced an elite pass-rush that yielded a lucrative 70 sacks over the regular season. Needless to say, I think the pass-rush should frustrate QB Patrick Mahomes and a Chiefs’ offense that has not been nearly as explosive in the big-play department. As a result, I think the Chiefs are destined to punt the ball more often than casual fans may expect and that line of thinking is actually on par with the Chiefs’ game scripts in recent weeks.

Kansas City punter Tommy Townsend has attempted at least 4 punts in 6 straight games. Before that stretch, Townsend only attempted more than 3.5 punts twice in the first 13 weeks of the season. I believe the reason we see this trend is because Kansas City has slowed their pace on the offensive side of the football. In recent weeks, Head Coach Andy Reid has put more focus on getting the running backs the football whether on the ground or in the receiving game. I believe that will be the focus once again this week for coach Reed against one of the most fierce pass-rushes in football. As a result, I imagine the Chiefs are going to settle for a slower pace game and I am betting that Philadelphia’s defense will come up with the stops needed to force more punting situations than projected.

Kenneth Gainwell +300 – Touchdown Scorer

If you have watched the Eagles closely in recent weeks, RB Kenneth Gainwell has been the best back in the Eagles backfield. While that has not necessarily changed the 3-way split between Miles Sanders, Gainwell, and Boston Scott, the best player in the backfield centers around the elusiveness of Gainwell who has posted touch counts of 13 (NYG) and 16 (SF) through two playoff games. The important thing to note here is the fact that Gainwell’s touches should not decrease with his momentum and should only have the option to increase based on a favorable game script. As a result of those expectations, Gainwell getting 3-1 odds to score a touchdown has some sharp appeal. Gainwell’s touches in recent weeks have accounted for exactly 21% of the Eagles overall touches and this betting line gives us 3-1 odds for Gainwell to cash in one of those opportunities for a touchdown. I like the math here and I like the value! Bet your Super Bowl prop wagers for FREE by scoring a 50% real cash bonus at the web’s best Super Bowl betting site: Bovada Sportsbook!