College Football BIG game Pick
SEC Showdown
No.2 Georgia at No.16 Ole Miss
Total Pick Overview
This week a lot of games qualify for the various unique handicapping systems I use but I had conflicting stats on most of them so I really only have two or three games to choose from.
Fortunately I’ve got some strong numbers on one of them, a pick on the total in the Georgia/Ole Miss game.
Key Statistics
Team records on totals:
Georgia O/U 3-5
Ole Miss O/U 2-7
That’s a 5-12, 70% edge to the Under.
The total on this game is 55.
Only two of the Bulldogs’ eight games have gone Over this number this season.
Only three of the Rebels’ nine games have gone Over this number this season (and one doesn’t really count because it was against an FCS opponent.)
Combined that’s 5-17, 77%, a HUGE edge to the Under.
Georgia games average 50 PPG.
Ole Miss games average 55 PPG.
Not a stat in sight to suggest playing Over 55 in this one.
Supporting Arguments for the Over
Reason number one:
I have the same QB matchup that played in last year’s game, Carson Beck vs Jaxson Dart. That game saw 69 points scored in a Bulldog 52-17 win.
Reason number two:
Rebel QB Jaxson Dart didn’t contribute much to those 69 points. He had his worst game of the year, completing just 10 of 17 for 112 yards, 0 TDS, one INT. But that was on the Rd.
Last year away from home the Rebels averaged just 18 PPG. At home they averaged 44 PPG. A little bit different, eh?
And they’re putting up the same number this year, 44.6 PPG at Hm. (That number is skewered by the 76-0 beating they gave Furman but if you remove that game they’re STILL averaging 37 PPG.)
Trend & Prediction
Reason number three:
From my H/C (Hot/Cold) trend reversal system, this game qualifies for an Over. But thus far the trends haven’t been reversing on college football Overs. The record is 13-7, 65%. And any of my systems hitting at 58% or better is worth putting my money on, so those three reasons are reason enough for me to buy the Over on this one.
Georgia’s defense is, as always, top notch, but not quite as good as last year’s version. With Dart playing at home – not to mention coming into this contest overflowing with confidence off a 25/31 performance for 515 yards and 6 TD’s in his last game – I’m confident I’ll get at least 27 PPG from the Mississippi offense this week, and at least the same from Georgia.
The Bulldogs won’t get near the 52 they scored in last year’s game, this is a much improved Mississippi defense. But I don’t need 52, I only need about half of that, which together with 25-27 points from the Rebels at home puts me right where I need to be to get the Over.
To my way of thinking, if Florida (the 63rd-ranked scoring offense in the country, averaging just 27 PPG) can put up 20 points against the Bulldogs at home in Georgia like they did last week, then Mississippi (the 9th ranked offense, averaging 38 PPG) can put up 27 against them at home.
