NBA game 7 Indiana at OKC Prop Bet
Nesmith Un 14′ +105 Points Rebounds
It’s been almost 10 years since we’ve had a game 7 in the NBA finals but we’ve got one tonight.
It’s not my favorite sport to watch, which correlates to why it’s not one of the sports I bet often but I’ll be watching tonight so I’ll have to have some action.
It feels almost sacrilegious if I didn’t.
How uninterested am I in this series/sport?
My last bet was way back on June 5th when I used TJ McConnell over 6′ points and he scored nine.
And that was the last game I watched (told you I wasn’t kidding when I prefer to watch/bet the WNBA.)
I should have stuck with that McConnell play.
The books put him up at the same number for the next two games, and TJ scored 10 points and 11 in them.
They’ve wised up, though, setting him at 9′ in tonight’s game at a price of -135.
That’s a 33% increase on the number which proves 6′ was soft. And he’s surpassed it in every game in the series.
At 9′ with extra juice, it’s a little too much for me to risk on McConnell tonight, so I’m going back to Aaron Nesmith.
My read on Nez in the playoffs hasn’t been great.
I’ve used him twice in column picks, and I’m 0-2.
One play was on Ov 12′ points (he scored 12) and one on Ov 4′ rebounds (he had just one.)
Because I thought I had a good read on his point scoring and narrowly missed by the hook the first time I used him, I came back to it on 5/21.
The books put up the same number, 12′, but with Dog odds. I used it for a play in the PredictEm forum, and he scored 30.
So I’m sitting at 1-2 on Nesmith props with a chance to pull back even tonight.
I’m also sitting at -.9 for the NBA season, all picks, articles, and forum, so this play gives me a chance to erase that slight deficit.
At best, my NBA ends up at +.15; at worst case, I’ll finish at -1.9, pretty much a wash either way. Normally, I’d say it was worth it just for a little fun on all the games I had action on, but I can’t in this case cuz I really just don’t like watching the NBA.
But I’ll be watching tonight.
I don’t have strong stats to back up my play.
The number, 14′, is actually two points fewer (1.5 really) than his season averages for both.
He scores an average of 12 points per game and grabs approximately 4 rebounds per game for a combined 16.
Against the Thunder, he’s hit this number in three games and missed in three games, so there’s no edge either way.
This is just a gut feel kind of play.
To win it, I’ll need Indiana to stay close because if it’s another OKC blowout, the Pacers will be gunning three-pointers in Q4, desperately trying to catch up.
And in the blowouts by the Thunder in game 2 and game 5, Nesmith sunk four 3-pointers in each.
If I can get a close game and fewer minutes of playing time (22-25 range), I can bring this one home.
My play:
Nesmith Un 14′ Points and Rebounds (+105)
