Sunday’s series finale between the Athletics and Yankees features a compelling storyline as former Yankee Luis Severino returns to the Bronx to face his old team. Meanwhile, Marcus Stroman makes his first start since mid-April after battling knee inflammation. After the A’s dominated Saturday’s contest 7-0, I’m expecting a tighter battle as both teams look to claim the rubber match. The Yankees’ offensive struggles have been well-documented lately, but a potential breakout looms against an inconsistent Severino.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Yankees ML (-155) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Game Total Under 10 (-110) ★★★☆☆
Athletics vs Yankees Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Athletics | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +135 | -155 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-130) | -1.5 (+110) |
| Total | Over 10 (-110) | Under 10 (-110) |
Opening Line: Yankees -145, Total 9.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
This line opened with the Yankees as -145 favorites but has since moved to -155, indicating continued confidence in New York despite their recent offensive struggles. The total has also seen upward movement from 9.5 to 10, suggesting professional money believes both pitchers might be vulnerable. While the public has been cooling on the Yankees during their June swoon (12-14 record), sharps seem to believe Stroman’s return combined with Severino’s inconsistency makes the home team the right side.
Pitching Matchup: Luis Severino vs Marcus Stroman – Who Has the Edge?
Athletics: Luis Severino (2-8, 4.83)
- Has struggled with consistency throughout 2025, allowing 4+ runs in 8 of his 16 starts
- 100.2 innings pitched with a concerning 1.35 WHIP and .276 opponent batting average
- Strikeout rate down significantly from Yankees tenure (6.1 K/9 compared to career 9.9 K/9)
- Road ERA of 5.41 shows significant struggles away from pitcher-friendly Sutter Health Park
New York Yankees: Marcus Stroman (0-1, 11.57)
- Making first MLB start since April 11 after dealing with left knee inflammation
- Struggled badly in two rehab starts at Triple-A (7.84 ERA across 10.1 innings)
- Limited to just 9.1 MLB innings this season with concerning command issues (7 BB)
- Historical success at Yankee Stadium with a 3.15 ERA in 8 career starts at the venue
Advantage: Slight edge to Severino based on volume and recent game action, but his struggles against right-handed power hitters (9 HR allowed to righties this season) could neutralize this advantage against the Yankees’ lineup.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Yankees’ bullpen has been a strength all season, posting a collective 3.31 ERA despite recent struggles. Devin Williams (11 saves, 1.94 ERA) and Luke Weaver (8 saves, 2.76 ERA) provide a formidable back-end duo, while Mark Leiter Jr. and Fernando Cruz have excelled in setup roles. The Athletics’ relief corps has improved lately, with rookie Jack Perkins emerging as a potential multi-inning weapon after his 3.1-inning save on Saturday. However, the A’s bullpen still ranks 26th in MLB with a 4.87 ERA and has blown 11 save opportunities. This represents a clear advantage for New York, especially if Stroman can provide 5+ innings.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Yankees are 30-13 at home this season, one of the best home records in baseball
- Athletics are just 14-28 on the road in 2025, scoring 1.3 fewer runs per game away from home
- Yankees have won 8 of their last 10 games following a shutout loss
- Athletics are 11-31 since May 13, the worst record in MLB during that span
- Yankees have scored 3 runs or fewer in 9 of their last 14 games
- Athletics have allowed 5+ runs in 58% of their road games this season
- Luis Severino is 0-3 with a 6.41 ERA in 4 starts against former teams in his career
Aaron Judge Spotlight: Yankees Slugger Due for Breakout
While Aaron Judge has cooled off in June (.247 average), his matchup against Severino offers breakout potential. Judge has historically crushed pitchers who rely heavily on four-seam fastballs and sliders—Severino’s two primary pitches. During Judge’s struggles, he’s continued to make hard contact, with two warning-track fly balls on Saturday that would’ve been home runs in multiple MLB parks. With Severino allowing 1.5 HR/9 this season, Judge is primed to break out of his mini-slump and deliver a signature performance in this series finale.
Yankee Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Yankee Stadium’s park factors (0.994 for runs, 1.134 for home runs) highlight its status as a neutral run-scoring environment that significantly boosts power production. The short porch in right field will be a major factor with two right-handed starters on the mound. This architectural feature greatly benefits Yankees lefty hitters like Cody Bellinger and Jasson Domínguez, while also putting pressure on Stroman to keep the ball down against A’s lefty threats like Nick Kurtz, who homered Saturday. Sunday’s forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-80s with 9 mph winds blowing out to right field, creating conditions favorable for power hitters on both sides.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Athletics-Yankees Showdown
Primary Play: Yankees Moneyline (-155)
Despite their recent offensive struggles, I’m backing the Yankees to bounce back on Sunday. The combination of Severino’s road struggles (5.41 ERA) and the Yankees’ stellar 30-13 home record makes this a favorable spot for New York. The emotional factor of facing his former team could work against Severino, who has historically struggled in such scenarios (0-3, 6.41 ERA vs. former teams). While Stroman’s first start back creates some uncertainty, the Yankees’ rested high-leverage relievers should be able to cover any shortcomings. I’d play this up to -165.
Strong Value Play: Game Total Under 10 (-110)
While both starting pitchers have vulnerabilities, there are compelling reasons to like the under. The Yankees’ offense has been anemic lately, scoring 3 or fewer runs in 9 of their last 14 games. Sunday games often feature lower scoring due to day-game factors and lineup adjustments. Additionally, both managers will have quick hooks with their starters – Boone with Stroman in his first start back, and Kotsay with Severino if he shows any signs of trouble against his former team. I expect both bullpens to cover significant innings, keeping the total under double digits.
Worth Considering: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
Judge is due for a breakout performance, and Severino’s pitch mix plays right into his strengths. Despite his recent “slump,” Judge is still making quality contact, with multiple warning-track flies on Saturday. Severino has allowed 17 home runs this season, and Judge has cleared this prop in 7 of his last 12 games despite his batting average dipping. With motivation to claim the series and his former teammate on the mound, expect Judge to deliver at least one extra-base hit today.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Luis Severino | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -135 | ★★★★☆ |
| Marcus Stroman | Under 4.5 Innings | -125 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Brent Rooker | To Hit a Home Run | +375 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | To Record an RBI | +195 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Bronx Homecoming Creates Value for Yankees Backers
The emotional storyline of Severino returning to face his former team creates betting value on the Yankees. History shows pitchers often struggle against former clubs (Severino is 0-3 with a 6.41 ERA in such spots), and the combination of Yankee Stadium’s power-friendly dimensions with Severino’s elevated HR rate (1.5 HR/9) points to a challenging outing for the A’s starter. While Stroman’s return creates some uncertainty, the Yankees’ superior bullpen and desperate need for offensive production should carry them to victory in this rubber match. The Athletics’ 14-28 road record and the Yankees’ 30-13 home mark further support a bounce-back win for the Bronx Bombers.
Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Athletics 3
