The Los Angeles Dodgers (56-36) look to snap a four-game losing streak as they face the Milwaukee Brewers (51-40) in game two of their series at American Family Field. After Monday’s 9-1 drubbing, the Dodgers turn to legend Clayton Kershaw against Brewers rookie phenom Jacob Misiorowski. This pitching matchup pits experience against electric potential, creating an intriguing handicapping scenario. While the Dodgers remain first in the NL West, their recent stumbles combined with Milwaukee’s home field advantage make this a compelling Tuesday night showdown.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Brewers Moneyline (+105) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Clayton Kershaw Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Total Under 8.5 Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆
Dodgers vs Brewers Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -125 | +105 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+145) | +1.5 (-165) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -120, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement has been subtle but telling in this matchup. Opening at Dodgers -120, we’ve seen a slight shift to -125 despite Los Angeles coming off four straight losses. This suggests sharps still respect the Dodgers’ overall talent even amid their recent struggles. More interesting is the total holding steady at 8.5 despite Kershaw’s presence, indicating professional bettors aren’t expecting the future Hall of Famer to dominate a solid Brewers lineup at American Family Field, which ranks 18th in park factor for runs (0.976) but 4th for home runs (1.139).
Pitching Matchup: Clayton Kershaw vs Jacob Misiorowski – Who Has the Edge?
Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (4-0, 3.43 ERA)
- Veteran has been solid but not dominant in 8 starts since returning from injury
- Averaging just 5.1 innings per start with diminished strikeout rate (6.4 K/9)
- Road ERA of 4.22 compared to 2.95 at Dodger Stadium this season
- Has allowed 7 home runs in 44.2 innings, concerning in homer-friendly American Family Field
Milwaukee Brewers: Jacob Misiorowski (3-1, 3.20 ERA)
- Electric rookie with upper-90s fastball and wipeout slider showing poise beyond his years
- Impressive 0.92 WHIP and .189 opponent batting average in first 4 MLB starts
- Dominant at home with 1.86 ERA in 2 starts at American Family Field
- Has allowed just 1 home run in 19.2 innings despite power-friendly home park
Advantage: Slight edge to Milwaukee. While Kershaw brings unmatched experience, Misiorowski’s dominant early returns and Kershaw’s diminished road performance tip the scales toward the Brewers.
Bullpen Breakdown
Milwaukee’s relief corps has been a significant strength, featuring Abner Uribe (league-leading 25 holds) and Trevor Megill (20 saves). The Brewers’ bullpen ranks 10th in MLB with a 3.74 ERA, and they’ve been particularly effective at home. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been heavily taxed during their recent skid, especially after Monday’s blowout when their starter recorded just two outs. While Los Angeles has quality arms in Tanner Scott (18 saves) and Alex Vesia (16 holds), the recent workload gives Milwaukee another slight edge in this department.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Brewers are 28-17 at home this season, translating to a .622 winning percentage
- Los Angeles has lost four straight games and has been outscored 29-9 during this skid
- Milwaukee has won 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Dodgers dating back to last season
- Dodgers are 23-19 on the road this season but just 5-6 in their last 11 away games
- Brewers are 6-4 in their last 10 games with a +17 run differential during that span
- Clayton Kershaw has a career 6-5 record with a 3.20 ERA in 14 starts against Milwaukee
Christian Yelich: Finding His Power Stroke Against LA
Christian Yelich has rediscovered his power stroke in 2025, already launching 18 home runs while maintaining a respectable .459 slugging percentage. What’s particularly noteworthy is his recent success, going 12-for-38 with three homers in his last 10 games. Yelich delivered a critical two-run shot in Monday’s victory over the Dodgers, and he’s historically performed well against Kershaw, batting .290 with two homers in 31 career at-bats. With Kershaw surrendering 1.4 HR/9 this season, Yelich represents a significant threat to impact Tuesday’s game.
American Family Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
American Family Field continues to be one of MLB’s most homer-friendly venues, ranking 4th in home run park factor (1.139) despite a below-average runs factor (0.976). This creates an interesting dynamic for this matchup, as the Dodgers lead the National League with 141 home runs (1.5 per game), while Kershaw has been susceptible to the long ball this season. For Milwaukee, this environment benefits their emerging power threats Yelich and Jackson Chourio, who has 3 homers in his last 10 games. The closed dome eliminates weather variables, creating consistent hitting conditions that typically favor power hitters on both sides.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Dodgers-Brewers Showdown
Primary Play: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (+105)
I’m backing the Brewers as home underdogs here. The combination of Milwaukee’s 28-17 home record, Misiorowski’s impressive early returns, and the Dodgers’ current four-game skid creates value at plus-money. Kershaw, while still effective, hasn’t been dominant on the road, and American Family Field’s homer-friendly confines present challenges for a pitcher allowing 1.4 HR/9 this season. Add in the Dodgers’ overworked bullpen after Monday’s disaster, and Milwaukee represents strong value at this price.
Strong Value Play: Clayton Kershaw Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Kershaw’s strikeout numbers have declined noticeably this season, averaging just 6.4 K/9 compared to his career 10.7 mark. He’s cleared this total in just 3 of his 8 starts since returning from injury, and the Brewers have been more disciplined at the plate recently, striking out just 7.2 times per game over their last 10. With Kershaw likely limited to around 90 pitches as the Dodgers manage his workload, the under on his strikeout total offers solid value.
Worth Considering: Total Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
Despite American Family Field’s reputation for homers, I’m leaning under here. Misiorowski has demonstrated excellent command (0.92 WHIP), while Kershaw remains effective at limiting damage. The Dodgers’ offense has cooled considerably during their losing streak, averaging just 2.25 runs over their last four games. With both bullpens performing well, particularly Milwaukee’s, this game sets up for a lower-scoring affair than the market anticipates.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Christian Yelich | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +110 | ★★★★☆ |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | +115 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Will Smith | To Record an RBI | +165 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Jackson Chourio | To Hit a Home Run | +425 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Brewers Poised to Extend Dodgers’ Struggles
While the Dodgers remain an elite team despite their current skid, tonight’s matchup presents several advantages for Milwaukee. Misiorowski’s early success, the Brewers’ home field advantage, and Kershaw’s diminished road performance create a perfect storm for the home team. Los Angeles will eventually break out of their slump, but facing a rising star in Misiorowski at homer-friendly American Family Field isn’t the ideal scenario. I expect a competitive game with Milwaukee’s bullpen making the difference in the late innings.
Score Prediction: Brewers 5, Dodgers 3
