The Chicago Cubs (55-38) head to the Bronx for a marquee interleague matchup against the New York Yankees (52-41) on Friday night at Yankee Stadium. This series features two teams with legitimate postseason aspirations, each looking to build momentum heading into the All-Star break. I’m particularly intrigued by this pitching matchup, as Chris Flexen makes his first start of the season after dominating out of the bullpen. His microscopic 0.83 ERA creates an unexpected dynamic against the established Carlos Rodon, whose strikeout prowess has been a constant despite inconsistent results.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Under 9 Runs (+100) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Cubs +1.5 (-125) ★★★☆☆
Cubs vs Yankees Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +155 | -190 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-125) | -1.5 (+105) |
| Total | Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100) |
Opening Line: Yankees -180, Total 9
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement in this game has been minimal, with the Yankees seeing a slight tick up from -180 to -190 despite the Cubs’ recent success. This suggests professional bettors still respect the home-field advantage and Rodon’s strikeout potential. What’s more interesting is the total, which has held steady at 9 but seen the under juice improve from -110 to +100. Given Flexen’s dominant bullpen numbers and Yankee Stadium’s surprising middle-of-the-pack run factor this season (0.994), sharp money appears to be respecting the pitching matchup more than the venue’s reputation for home runs.
Pitching Matchup: Chris Flexen vs Carlos Rodon – Who Has the Edge?
Chicago Cubs: Chris Flexen (5-0, 0.83 ERA)
- Making his first start after 17 dominant relief appearances this season
- Has allowed just 3 earned runs over 32.2 innings with a minuscule 0.86 WHIP
- Perfect 1-0 with 0.00 ERA in 14.1 road innings this season
- Previous career experience against Yankees: 0-1, 9.00 ERA (limited sample size from 2024)
New York Yankees: Carlos Rodon (9-6, 3.30 ERA)
- Power lefty who ranks among league leaders with 127 strikeouts in 111.2 innings
- Coming off a rough outing against the Mets (6 ER in 5 IP) but had been solid prior
- Strong at home with a 3.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 9 starts at Yankee Stadium
- Has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 14 of his 19 starts this season
Advantage: Slight edge to Yankees. While Flexen’s numbers are otherworldly, the transition from reliever to starter introduces uncertainty. Rodon’s proven ability to work deep into games and miss bats gives New York stability, though his recent inconsistency is concerning.
Bullpen Breakdown
Both teams feature quality bullpens, though with different strengths. The Cubs’ relief corps ranks 8th in MLB with a collective 3.56 ERA, led by closer Daniel Palencia (10 saves) and setup man Brad Keller (14 holds). Ryan Pressly’s addition at the trade deadline has provided veteran stability. The Yankees counter with a bullpen anchored by Devin Williams (13 saves) and Mark Leiter Jr. (11 holds), ranking 11th with a 3.72 ERA. New York’s advantage comes in strikeout potential, as their relievers have punched out 9.2 batters per nine innings compared to Chicago’s 8.4. With Flexen unlikely to work deep into the game in his first start, the Cubs will need multiple innings from their middle relievers, which could be the deciding factor in a close game.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Cubs are an impressive 25-22 on the road this season, leading MLB with a .266 road batting average
- Yankees boast a strong 29-17 home record but are just 5-7 in interleague play
- Chicago is 7-3 in their last 10 games and 15-9 in interleague matchups this season
- New York has won 4 straight games, including Thursday’s dramatic 6-5 comeback win in extras
- Cubs have scored 5+ runs in 6 of their last 8 games
- Yankees have allowed 4+ runs in 5 of their last 7 contests
- Under is 5-2-1 in the Cubs’ last 8 road games
- Aaron Judge has 7 RBIs in his last 5 games, including the game-winning sac fly on Thursday
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s Historic Season: Can He Continue in New York?
Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong enters this series having just accomplished something remarkably rare. With his two-homer performance against Minnesota on Thursday, he became just the third player in MLB history to reach 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases before the All-Star break, joining Bobby Bonds and Eric Davis. His power-speed combination has transformed the Cubs’ offense, and he’ll be a major challenge for Rodon, especially given the lefty-on-lefty matchup. Crow-Armstrong has actually performed better against southpaws this season (.278 average) than right-handers (.265), suggesting his approach is mature beyond his years. In the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, he could add to his impressive first-half totals.
Yankee Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
While Yankee Stadium has a well-earned reputation as a homer haven, particularly down the right-field line, the 2025 park factors show it’s been more neutral for overall run scoring (0.994 run factor) while still boosting home runs (1.134 HR factor). The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-70s with light winds blowing out to center field, which could help carry well-hit balls. However, the humidity expected (around 65%) may mitigate some of that effect. The short porch in right field will be a significant factor for left-handed Cubs hitters like Crow-Armstrong and Ian Happ, while Chicago’s right-handed power threats Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki will face a more challenging 399-foot power alley in left-center. The ballpark dimensions clearly favor pull-hitting lefties, which could influence late-game bullpen matchups.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Cubs-Yankees Showdown
Primary Play: Under 9 Total Runs (+100)
I’m backing the under in this matchup despite the offensive firepower on both sides. Flexen has been nearly unhittable this season, and while he won’t work deep into the game, his dominance should set the tone early. Rodon, meanwhile, has been excellent at home with a 3.25 ERA at Yankee Stadium. Both teams feature strong bullpens capable of preserving a lead, and the Cubs’ relief corps is particularly well-rested after getting 7 innings from Colin Rea on Thursday. The value at even money makes this my top play, and I’d bet it down to -110.
Strong Value Play: Cubs +1.5 (-125)
The Cubs have been excellent on the road this season, and their lineup is firing on all cylinders with Pete Crow-Armstrong’s emergence. While Rodon presents a tough matchup, Chicago’s balanced offense gives them multiple ways to manufacture runs. The Cubs have played 35 one-run games this season (going 18-17), demonstrating their ability to keep things close. With Flexen’s excellence and a rested bullpen, I expect Chicago to stay within striking distance throughout, making the run line the smarter play than the moneyline.
Worth Considering: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Tucker has been everything the Cubs hoped for when they acquired him this offseason, and the lefty slugger should relish the short porch in right field. He’s hitting .289 with a .549 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season, suggesting he won’t be at a disadvantage against Rodon. Tucker has exceeded 1.5 total bases in 6 of his last 10 games and has hit safely in 13 of his last 15. At plus-money odds, this prop offers excellent value.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Tucker | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +105 | ★★★★☆ |
| Carlos Rodon | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -125 | ★★★★☆ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | To Hit a Home Run | +320 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Aaron Judge | To Record an RBI | -110 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Pitching Duel Could Develop Despite Offensive Firepower
This interleague matchup features two playoff contenders with potent offenses, but I believe the pitching will take center stage tonight. Flexen’s bullpen dominance should translate well enough in his first start to keep the Yankees in check early, while Rodon’s strikeout ability gives him the tools to navigate Chicago’s dangerous lineup. The game should stay relatively low-scoring through the middle innings before the bullpens take over. While the star power might suggest a slugfest, the pitching matchup and recent trends point toward a tighter, more tactical contest. Both teams will be looking to set a positive tone for this weekend series heading into the All-Star break.
Score Prediction: Yankees 4, Cubs 3
