The Los Angeles Angels (49-51) visit Queens to face the New York Mets (57-44) in the second game of their series at Citi Field. After dropping the series opener 7-5 despite taking an early 4-0 lead, the Angels look to bounce back with veteran Kyle Hendricks on the mound. The Mets, who staged an impressive comeback Monday behind Edwin Diaz’s milestone 800th career strikeout, counter with Frankie Montas in what shapes up as a matchup between two pitchers trying to recapture past glory. With both starters carrying ERAs near 5.00, this game has all the makings of an offensive showdown.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Over 9 Total Runs (-110) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Mike Trout Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Angels Moneyline (+147) ★★★☆☆
Angels vs Mets Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Los Angeles Angels | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +147 | -178 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-125) | -1.5 (+105) |
| Total | Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110) |
Opening Line: Mets -175, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The overnight movement on this total from 8.5 to 9 is significant, especially considering Citi Field ranks as one of the more pitcher-friendly venues in baseball (0.913 park factor for runs). Professional money appears to be focusing on the struggling starting pitchers rather than the venue. While the moneyline has held relatively steady, there’s been slight juice movement on the Angels’ run line from -120 to -125, suggesting some sharp resistance to laying the full 1.5 runs with the Mets despite their home field advantage and superior record.
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Hendricks vs Frankie Montas – Who Has the Edge?
Los Angeles Angels: Kyle Hendricks (5-6, 4.88 ERA)
- Veteran control specialist struggling with command (24 BB in 96 IP)
- Allowing 1.29 WHIP and career-low 6.1 K/9 rate
- Road ERA of 5.35 significantly worse than home numbers
- Has allowed 3+ earned runs in 7 of his last 9 starts
New York Mets: Frankie Montas (2-1, 5.03 ERA)
- Limited sample size of just 19.2 innings pitched this season
- Decent 1.17 WHIP but struggling with hard contact (7 HR allowed)
- Low walk rate (4 BB) but still finding his rhythm after extended absence
- Averaging just 4.9 innings per start, taxing the Mets bullpen
Advantage: Slight edge to Montas based on upside and stuff, but neither pitcher inspires confidence right now. Both are susceptible to big innings and hard contact.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Mets bullpen has been outstanding lately, headlined by Edwin Diaz’s dominance. After a rocky start to the season, Diaz has allowed just one earned run over his last 29 appearances while recording 44 strikeouts. Brooks Raley’s return from Tommy John surgery adds another quality arm to their relief corps. However, the Mets’ bullpen was heavily taxed in Monday’s game, with five relievers covering six innings after Kodai Senga’s early exit. The Angels’ bullpen has been inconsistent with Kenley Jansen (17 saves) providing solid ninth-inning work, while Ryan Zeferjahn (15 holds) has been reliable in setup situations. Overall, the Mets hold the advantage in high-leverage relievers, but the Angels’ bullpen might be better rested for this contest.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Mets are an impressive 35-16 at Citi Field this season, while the Angels are 25-28 on the road
- New York is 36-7 when scoring five or more runs this season
- Angels are 35-21 when recording eight or more hits in a game
- The Mets have scored 5+ runs in five of their last seven games
- Mike Trout is 10-for-37 with three home runs and 11 RBIs over his last 10 games
- Francisco Lindor is hitless in his last 26 at-bats, creating a significant hole in the Mets lineup
- The Angels have allowed 6+ runs in four of their last six games
- The Mets have allowed 4+ runs in six of their last eight games
Mike Trout: Can the Superstar Lead an Angels Bounce-Back?
Despite the Angels’ overall struggles, Mike Trout has been heating up at the plate. Over his last 10 games, he’s collected 10 hits including three home runs while driving in 11 runs. His ability to carry the Angels’ offense makes him a dangerous presence against Montas, who has been prone to the long ball. Trout has historically performed well in New York, with a career .304 batting average at Citi Field. His recent power surge and Montas’ tendency to give up home runs creates a perfect storm for the Angels superstar to potentially have a big night at the plate. If Trout can connect early, it could set the tone for an Angels offense that ranks 11th in MLB in home runs this season.
Citi Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Citi Field ranks as one of the more pitcher-friendly venues in baseball, with a 0.913 park factor for runs (24th in MLB) and 0.963 for home runs. However, the warm July temperatures and struggling starting pitchers could neutralize some of the park’s effects. The Mets have leveraged their home field advantage effectively this season, going 35-16 at Citi Field. While the dimensions can suppress offense compared to more hitter-friendly parks, both Hendricks and Montas have struggled with hard contact this season, which could lead to more scoring opportunities than the venue would typically suggest. The night game conditions should provide relatively neutral atmospheric effects, with temperatures expected in the mid-70s and light winds.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Angels-Mets Showdown
Primary Play: Over 9 Total Runs (-110)
This total has already moved up from 8.5 to 9, but I still see value here. Both starting pitchers have been extremely hittable this season, with Hendricks posting a 4.88 ERA and Montas at 5.03. The Angels offense has been clicking lately with Taylor Ward and Mike Trout producing consistently, while the Mets have shown they can put up crooked numbers despite Francisco Lindor’s slump. Citi Field typically suppresses offense, but neither of these pitchers has shown the ability to consistently navigate through lineups multiple times. I expect both teams to reach the 5-run mark, giving us a comfortable over.
Strong Value Play: Mike Trout Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Trout has been finding his groove lately, and Montas has been susceptible to hard contact and home runs. The Angels’ superstar has collected multiple total bases in 6 of his last 10 games, and this matchup sets up perfectly for him to continue that trend. Montas has allowed 7 home runs in just 19.2 innings, giving Trout a legitimate shot at a big fly tonight. At plus-money odds, this prop offers excellent value for a player of Trout’s caliber against a pitcher who’s still finding his footing.
Worth Considering: Angels Moneyline (+147)
There’s significant value on the Angels at this price. While the Mets have the better overall team and home-field advantage, this pitching matchup is closer to a coin flip than the odds suggest. The Angels have been competitive despite their sub-.500 record, and they’re 35-21 when collecting eight or more hits. If Hendricks can limit damage and keep the ball in the park, the Angels have a legitimate chance to steal this one. At nearly 1.5-to-1 odds, I see value in backing the road underdogs.
BET YOUR MLB PICKS FOR FREE THIS WEEK BY SCORING A 100% REAL CASH BONUS ON YOUR FIRST DEPOSIT OF $100 TO $500 USING OUR EVERYGAME PROMO CODE! REGISTER FOR A BETTING ACCOUNT, DEPOSIT $100 TO $500, THEN GO TO THEIR “SPECIAL PROMOTIONS PAGE” AND ENTER CODE: PREDICTEM BEFORE PLACING YOUR FIRST BET! YOUR ACCOUNT BALANCE WILL MAGICALLY DOUBLE!
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +110 | ★★★★☆ |
| Taylor Ward | To Hit a Home Run | +320 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Juan Soto | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -125 | ★★★★☆ |
| Brett Baty | To Record an RBI | +175 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Francisco Alvarez | Over 0.5 Hits | -165 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Expect a High-Scoring Affair at Citi Field
This matchup features two veteran pitchers who are shells of their former selves. Hendricks no longer possesses the pinpoint command that made him effective in his prime, while Montas is still trying to regain his form. Both offenses have been productive recently, with the Angels showing pop (1.47 HR/game) and the Mets demonstrating an ability to rally late as they did in Monday’s opener. While Citi Field typically suppresses offense, the combination of struggling starters and potent lineups should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities. I expect both teams to reach the 5-run mark in what should be an entertaining, back-and-forth affair. The total over 9 runs stands out as the strongest play, with value on the Angels moneyline at the current price.
Score Prediction: Angels 6, Mets 5
