The Minnesota Twins (49-52) head into the series finale against the Los Angeles Dodgers (59-43) after an impressive 10-7 win on Tuesday night that featured plenty of offensive fireworks. Today’s matchup showcases a compelling pitching duel between struggling right-hander Chris Paddack and the recently returned Tyler Glasnow. With the Dodgers having lost 11 of their last 14 games and their bullpen in shambles, this creates an interesting betting opportunity despite Los Angeles being heavily favored at home.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Under 8 Total Runs (-110) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Twins +1.5 Run Line (+145) ★★★☆☆
Twins vs Dodgers Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Minnesota Twins | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +163 | -198 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (+145) | -1.5 (-170) |
| Total | Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -180, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement in this game is quite telling. While the Dodgers opened as -180 favorites, we’ve seen that number push to -198, suggesting continued professional money on Los Angeles despite their recent struggles. However, what’s more interesting is the total dropping from 8.5 to 8, indicating sharp money on the under. This makes sense considering Glasnow’s dominant strikeout potential and the fact that both teams likely exhausted their offensive output in Tuesday’s high-scoring affair. When I see a total moving down in a game featuring Glasnow, I take notice.
Pitching Matchup: Chris Paddack vs Tyler Glasnow – Who Has the Edge?
Minnesota Twins: Chris Paddack (3-9, 5.14 ERA)
- Has struggled with consistency all season, allowing 17 home runs in 105 innings
- Control has been decent with just 27 walks, but hitters are making hard contact (1.31 WHIP)
- Coming off back-to-back starts where he allowed 4+ earned runs
- Has been much worse on the road (6.28 ERA) than at home (4.01 ERA)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Tyler Glasnow (1-1, 3.10 ERA)
- Only 29 innings pitched this season due to injuries, but has looked dominant when healthy
- Elite strikeout rate with 34 Ks in just 29 innings (10.5 K/9)
- Command has been a slight issue with 15 walks, but stuff is overpowering
- Has been on a strict pitch count but should be stretched out to 85-90 pitches today
Advantage: Significant edge to Glasnow and the Dodgers. When healthy, Glasnow has some of the most electric stuff in baseball, and Paddack has been particularly vulnerable on the road this season.
Bullpen Breakdown
This is where things get interesting and potentially neutralizes the Dodgers’ starting pitching advantage. Los Angeles placed key reliever Tanner Scott on the IL yesterday with elbow inflammation, and Ben Casparius exited last night’s game with an apparent calf injury. The Dodgers’ bullpen is in absolute shambles right now, having blown multiple leads during their recent skid. They’ve compiled the largest workload in the majors (450.2 innings) and rank 24th in ERA (4.41).
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s bullpen took a hit when Jhoan Duran allowed his first home run in over a year (to Ohtani), but overall, they’ve been more reliable. Griffin Jax and Louie Varland have been excellent setup options, ranking 6th and 18th in holds across MLB this season. If this game is close in the late innings, the Twins might actually have the edge despite being on the road.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Dodgers are just 3-7 in their last 10 games with a team batting average of .203
- Minnesota is 5-5 in their last 10, hitting .262 with balanced offensive production
- The Twins have a poor 21-32 road record this season, but are 37-15 when recording 8+ hits
- Los Angeles is 34-21 at home but has lost 6 of their last 8 games at Dodger Stadium
- The Dodgers’ bullpen has blown 5 leads in the last 10 days
- Minnesota has outscored opponents by 3 runs over their last 10 games
- The Twins are 5-2 in their last 7 games when listed as underdogs
Byron Buxton’s Resurgence: Minnesota’s Offensive Catalyst
After years of injury struggles, Byron Buxton has returned to form in 2025, hitting .290 with 23 home runs while playing in 82 games so far. His combination of power and improved contact skills has been a revelation for Minnesota. Over the past 10 games, Buxton is hitting .425 (17-for-40) with 3 doubles, a triple, and 4 home runs. While Glasnow presents a tough matchup, Buxton’s disciplined approach and quick hands could still produce results against high-velocity pitching. His performance will be crucial if the Twins hope to steal this series finale.
Dodger Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Dodger Stadium ranks as one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in baseball with a 0.940 runs factor, though it does boost home runs slightly with a 1.122 HR factor. The afternoon start time (4:10 PM ET) creates shadows that often make it difficult for hitters to pick up breaking pitches, which should especially benefit Glasnow with his devastating curveball and slider combination. The mild 75-degree forecast with minimal wind should keep the ball in the park more than usual. These conditions, combined with Glasnow’s strikeout potential, heavily favor a lower-scoring affair despite yesterday’s offensive explosion.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Twins-Dodgers Showdown
Primary Play: Under 8 Total Runs (-110)
Everything points toward a lower-scoring game today. Glasnow’s strikeout potential is elite, and while Paddack has struggled, he should benefit from the pitcher-friendly confines of Dodger Stadium during a day game. The Twins’ offense will likely cool down after scoring 10 runs last night, and the Dodgers have been ice cold at the plate recently (.203 batting average in their last 10 games). With both teams likely using their high-leverage relievers today after last night’s slugfest, I’m confident this total stays under 8 runs.
Strong Value Play: Twins +1.5 Run Line (+145)
I’m seeing tremendous value on the Twins run line at this price. While Glasnow gives the Dodgers a significant edge in starting pitching, Los Angeles’ bullpen is in crisis mode right now. The combination of injuries and overuse has created a situation where they simply cannot be trusted to hold leads. Given that Minnesota is 5-2 in their last 7 games as underdogs and the Dodgers are just 3-7 in their last 10, getting the Twins at +1.5 runs with nearly +150 odds presents substantial value.
Worth Considering: Tyler Glasnow Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Glasnow’s strikeout potential is among the best in baseball, and the Twins rank 10th in MLB in strikeouts against right-handed pitching. With Glasnow likely to throw 85-90 pitches today as he continues building stamina, he should have ample opportunity to rack up Ks. In his limited action this season, he’s already averaging 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Against a Twins lineup that can be overly aggressive, I expect him to clear this number with room to spare.
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Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -125 | ★★★★☆ |
| Byron Buxton | To Record a Hit | -175 | ★★★★☆ |
| Shohei Ohtani | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Will Smith | Over 0.5 RBIs | +140 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Chris Paddack | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -130 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Bullpen Issues Create Opportunity Despite Glasnow’s Return
While the Dodgers should be heavily favored with Glasnow on the mound, their bullpen situation creates a significant vulnerability that makes this game much closer than the odds suggest. The Twins showed last night that they can put up runs in bunches, and the Dodgers’ relief corps is currently held together with duct tape and prayers. I expect a tight, lower-scoring game that stays under the total, with Glasnow dominating early before Minnesota potentially makes things interesting late against the depleted Los Angeles bullpen.
Score Prediction: Dodgers 4, Twins 3
