The Washington Commanders travel to Gillette Stadium to face the New England Patriots in this week’s NFL Preseason opener. While wins and losses may not count for much in August, this matchup offers critical insights into depth charts, coaching strategies, and player momentum. With Jayden Daniels expected to get meaningful reps and New England’s defense still finding its footing, several betting angles are worth exploring here.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Commanders +1.5 ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: TreVeyon Henderson Over 27.5 Total Yards ★★★★★
- Value Play: Game Total Over 36.5 ★★★☆☆
Commanders vs Patriots Betting Odds & Line Movement
| Market | Commanders | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +100 | -120 |
| Point Spread | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 36.5 (-110) | Under 36.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Patriots -2.5, Total 35.5
Sharp Money Breakdown: Where the Smart Bets Are Going
When this line opened at Patriots -2.5, I anticipated movement — and we got it. The adjustment to Patriots -1.5 reflects early action on Washington, especially after reports out of camp highlighted Jayden Daniels’ impressive showing with the first-team offense. The total also ticked up slightly, indicating expectations for sharper offensive execution from both sides. Preseason totals rarely move without cause, so smart money is clearly leaning toward a more open game than initially projected.
Quarterback Matchup: Jayden Daniels vs Drake Maye – Who Has the Edge?
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels
- Coming off an Offensive Rookie of the Year season with impressive camp showings
- Expected to play at least one series, possibly two according to Dan Quinn
- Already showing chemistry with new weapon Deebo Samuel in practice
- Offensive line has been solid in pass protection during training camp
New England Patriots: Drake Maye
- Has shown flashes in training camp but still developing consistency
- Expected to play 1-2 quarters in his second preseason with the team
- Coming off an inconsistent practice on Monday (went 11-of-21)
- Offensive line issues have led to pressure in practice situations
QB Edge: Commanders. Daniels’ experience from last season and Washington’s improved offensive weapons give him a slight advantage over Maye, who is still finding his rhythm with a revamped Patriots offense.
Defense Comparison: Which Unit Will Step Up?
Washington’s defense is transitioning under new coordinator Joe Whitt Jr., who has implemented a more aggressive scheme focusing on takeaways. The Commanders’ first unit has looked sharp in camp, particularly in the secondary where Marshon Lattimore and rookie Trey Amos have been standouts. For New England, their defensive front remains a strength, but the secondary has questions with Christian Gonzalez missing practice time. The Patriots will also be without Carlton Davis, further thinning their cornerback depth. This gives Washington’s receivers a potential advantage in one-on-one matchups.
Key Betting Trends & Team Stats You Should Know
- Commanders finished last season 9-8 ATS, showing value as underdogs
- Patriots were just 6-11 ATS in 2024, one of the worst marks in the NFL
- Washington’s offense ranked 6th in points per game (28.8) last season
- New England’s offense ranked 30th in points per game (17.0) in 2024
- The Commanders are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 preseason openers
- The Patriots are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 August games
- The Over is 5-2 in Washington’s last 7 preseason road games
TreVeyon Henderson: Rising Star in Patriots Backfield
All eyes should be on Patriots rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson, who has been the talk of training camp. The second-round pick out of Ohio State has showcased impressive versatility, with coaches and teammates using words like “special” and “difference-maker” to describe him. On Monday alone, Henderson hauled in five receptions with three receiving touchdowns and one rushing score in practice. With Josh McDaniels back as offensive coordinator and looking to feature Henderson in space, expect the rookie to get plenty of opportunities to shine in his NFL debut, even in limited playing time.
Gillette Stadium Factor: What to Expect on Game Day
Gillette Stadium will have an extra buzz this Friday with the unveiling of Tom Brady’s statue scheduled for 6 p.m., just before kickoff. This ceremony could create a more energetic atmosphere than typical for a preseason opener, potentially giving the Patriots an emotional boost early. Weather forecasts call for mild conditions around 75 degrees with minimal wind, which should allow both offenses to execute their game plans without environmental limitations. With the Brady ceremony likely drawing a larger crowd than usual for preseason, expect more fan engagement throughout the game.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Commanders vs Patriots
Primary Play: Commanders +1.5 (-110)
Washington’s offensive firepower and quarterback stability give them a significant edge in this preseason matchup. While Drake Maye shows promise, the Patriots’ offense is still finding its footing under Josh McDaniels. The Commanders have more explosive offensive weapons and should be able to move the ball more consistently, even with backups in the game. Dan Quinn teams typically come prepared for preseason contests, and Washington’s depth at skill positions should be enough to cover this small spread.
Strong Value Play: Game Total Over 36.5 (-110)
Both teams have shown offensive upside in training camp, with the Commanders already boasting one of the league’s most potent attacks and the Patriots showing improvement under McDaniels. Preseason games often feature loose defensive structures and simplified coverages, creating opportunities for big plays. With multiple quarterbacks expected to play for both teams, expect some inconsistent defensive performances that lead to scoring opportunities. The combination of Washington’s explosive offense and New England’s improving attack should push this total over.
Worth Considering: TreVeyon Henderson Anytime TD (+175)
Henderson has been the breakout star of Patriots camp, particularly in red zone situations. The rookie running back scored four touchdowns in Monday’s practice alone and appears to be a focal point in McDaniels’ game plan. New England will likely give Henderson plenty of opportunities in his debut, especially near the goal line. At +175, there’s excellent value on the explosive rookie finding the end zone at least once, even in limited playing time.
Top Player Props for Commanders vs Patriots
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | Over 27.5 Total Yards | -110 | ★★★★★ |
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | Over 14.5 Passing Yards | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Marcus Mariota (WAS) | Over 45.5 Passing Yards | -110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Javon Baker (NE) | Over 22.5 Receiving Yards | -110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) | Anytime TD Scorer | +200 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Preseason Provides First Look at Commanders’ Offensive Firepower
While preseason results rarely translate directly to regular-season success, this matchup offers valuable insights into both teams’ development. Washington’s offensive talent and depth should give them an edge, even if starters play limited snaps. The Commanders’ backup quarterbacks (Marcus Mariota and Sam Hartman) provide more stability than New England’s reserves, which matters significantly in preseason evaluations. The Patriots are showing signs of improvement, particularly with Henderson’s emergence and Maye’s development, but Washington appears further along in their progression with a potent offense that should translate even to preseason play.
Score Prediction: Commanders 23, Patriots 20
Note: Our projections about who’s playing in preseason are based on the latest updates from beat reporters, coaches, and players. Sometimes, that info changes at the last minute or doesn’t pan out on game day. If you can’t personally confirm who’s suiting up, we recommend keeping your action light—think “beer money” bets only.
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