The college football season is less than two weeks away, making now the perfect time to lock in your NCAA Football win total bets. Below are 25 teams projected to go under their 2025 win totals, with odds from Bovada and quick-hit analysis for each pick.
LSU
Conference: SEC
Over/Under: 8.5 wins
Road games at Clemson, Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma along with tough home conference matchups against Florida, South Carolina and Texas A&M make for a difficult slate of games for the Tigers. That combined with having a head coach in Napoleon McFraud who has no accountability and year in and year out folds under the pressure when it matters most makes this an equally balanced pick based on logic and abject hatred for Brian Kelly.
Pick: UNDER 8.5 Wins
Missouri
Conference: SEC
Over/Under: 7.5 wins
Three easy non-conference matchups along with a home game against Kansas start the year for the Tigers, which translate to a likely record of 3-1 or 4-0 before factoring in SEC opponents. Missouri has won 22 straight games when favored, but on the backside of that is on a 0-10 run in their last ten games when underdogs by four or more points. Considering a conference schedule that has them traveling to play a majority of their best chances at wins (Vanderbilt and Arkansas) and playing only one home game when they will be favored (Mississippi State), I’m undoubtedly taking the Tigers to be tamed in 2025.
Pick: UNDER 7.5 Wins
Bowling Green
Conference: MAC
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
This line made little sense to me. The Falcons have a tough non-conference schedule that odds are will have them go 0-4, and amongst MAC opponents they draw the three best (Toledo, Ohio, Buffalo) while also having to travel on the road to take on their best shots at wins (UMass, Eastern Michigan, Kent State). I would take the under at 5.5 as well if the odds drop.
Pick: UNDER 6.5 Wins
East Carolina
Conference: American
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
I don’t see the Pirates having much success against NC State, BYU, Army, Tulane, Memphis or UTSA and in the remaining six games will likely only be favored in four of them. Go Math.
Pick: UNDER 6.5 Wins
Louisiana Tech
Conference: Conference USA
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
Even if you want project positivity and give La.Tech a 3-1 non-conference record to start their season, it’s hard to overlook a Conf-USA schedule that has them traveling on the road to go up against their four best chances for wins (UTEP, Kennesaw State, Delaware and Missouri State). Not the most ideal set up, especially considering the fact that the Bulldogs have gone just 2-24 in their last 26 road games.
Pick: UNDER 6.5 Wins
South Florida
Conference: American
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
The oddsmakers have been spot on for USF in the regular season of late, as the Bulls are 14-6 straight up in their last 20 games as favorite and a whopping 2-41 straight up in their last 43 as an underdog. With a tough schedule awaiting them that includes non-conf games against Boise State, Florida and Miami along with an American schedule that has them draw Memphis, Navy and UTSA along with and an absence of both Tulsa and Temple make me believe the Bulls have little chance of beating their total.
Pick: UNDER 6.5 Wins
Arkansas
Conference: SEC
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
The Razorbacks schedule contains eight teams that begin the year consensusly ranked in the top 35 while also having to travel to take on an upstart Memphis team early in the year. Home games against Alabama A&M, Arkansas State and Mississippi State are likely the only times that Arkansas will be favored all season and with all those factors combined I sense a faltering in Fayetteville.
Pick: UNDER 5.5 Wins
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Delaware
Conference: Conference USA
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
The Blue Hens 2025 schedule does them no favors, as they begin the year with three tough non-conference games while also using up their two byes in the first half of the season. From there, the conference schedule misses out on three of four bottom tier teams (Kennesaw, Missouri St, New Mexico State) while also drawing the full gambit of the top five. The first year at the FBS level is not looking like a successful one for the Blue Hens.
Pick: UNDER 5.5 Wins
Oklahoma State
Conference: Big 12
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
A 2-1 record to begin the year seems set in stone for the Cowboys with easy wins against UT Martin and Tulsa along with a pounding at Oregon awaiting them. How they would get the remaining four wins needed to clear the over remains to be seen, as their easiest chances for conference wins are on the road (UCF & Arizona) while also missing out on West Virginia and Colorado.
Pick: UNDER 5.5 Wins
Syracuse
Conference: ACC
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
Thanks to Notre Dame and Tennessee on their non-conference schedule, the best the Orange can hope for is a 2-2 mark, though even that is not necessarily a guarantee with an improving UConn team one of the other opponents awaiting them. Within the ACC, I don’t see them having next to any success considering the four lowest ranked teams in the conference aren’t on their schedule (Stanford, Wake, Cal and Virginia) while also having to play Clemson, Miami, SMU and Georgia Tech on the road.
Pick: UNDER 5.5 Wins
UCLA
Conference: Big Ten
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
UCLA plays only two games this season where they are expected to be favored (home tilts against New Mexico and Maryland), but from there I don’t see how they could get another four wins to beat their total. Of the remaining matchups against teams within the Bruins rankings level (UNLV, Northwestern, Michigan State), all take place on the road and overall UCLA has to deal with five Big 10 away games total.
Pick: UNDER 5.5 Wins
UTEP
Conference: Conference USA
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
The Miners have had recent issues playing away from home having gone 8-44 in their last 52 road games and that doesn’t bode well for them this year with three of their best four chances of conference wins coming at Kennesaw St, Missouri State and Delaware. UTEP has just six wins combined in their last two seasons; I don’t believe they will hit that total in 2025.
Pick: UNDER 5.5 Wins
Washington State
Conference: Pac-12
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
I wanted to get a team from every conference and with only two to choose from in the Pac-12, Wazzu was the easy choice considering the transition state the program is in and the fact they have possibly just three games they will be favored in all season.
Pick: UNDER 5.5 Wins
West Virginia
Conference: Big 12
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
Easy matchups against Robert Morris and Ohio will help head coach Rich Rodriguez settle back into his second head coaching stint in Morgantown, but a Big-12 schedule that doesn’t include Arizona and Oklahoma State and has the Mountaineers traveling to play most of their best chances in conference wins at UCF, Houston and BYU may be too much for them to overcome.
Pick: UNDER 5.5 Wins
Wisconsin
Conference: Big Ten
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
When looking at consensus preseason rankings, there are six Big-10 teams ranked lower than the Badgers (Rutgers, UCLA, Michigan State, Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue). Unfortunately for Wisconsin only one of them is on their schedule, and considering they could be favored in only three games overall this I am picking them to have their second consecutive losing season for the first time since the early days of Barry Alvarez’s tenure in 1991.
Pick: UNDER 5.5 Wins
Wyoming
Conference: Mountain West
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
The first month of the season should see the Cowboys start with a 2-2 record against non-conference opponents, which means they would need to go at least .500 against Mountain West teams to clear their total. Considering that Utah State and New Mexico aren’t on the schedule and they have to travel to play San Diego State, Fresno State and Hawaii, I think it’s going to be back-to-back bowless seasons in Laramie.
Pick: UNDER 5.5 Wins
Louisiana Monroe
Conference: Sun Belt
Over/Under: 4.5 wins
ULM has just 15 wins over the last five seasons, but an impressive eight of those have come as an underdog of 6.5 points or more. If they want to have any sort of chance of clearing their over, they will certainly need that type of success to continue as they will likely be underdogs in all eleven FBS games this year thanks to a conference schedule that misses the other lower tier SBC teams (Georgia State and Marshall) and has them traveling to play Southern Miss and Coastal Carolina amongst seven over all road matchups. Not a good sign for a team that is just 2-31 in their last 33 away games.
Pick: UNDER 4.5 Wins
Maryland
Conference: Big Ten
Over/Under: 4.5 wins
The Terps have played to their level of competition of late in the regular season, having gone 22-1 straight up in their 23 games as a favorite and 1-19 in their 20 as an underdog. They should be able to build momentum early with three easy matchups to begin the year, but where they will find any success in the standings the rest of the way remains to be seen thanks to a schedule that includes five Big 10 road games and zero matchups in which they are expected to be favored.
Pick: UNDER 4.5 Wins
UAB
Conference: American
Over/Under: 4.5 wins
Two easy, early season non-conference matches against Alabama State and Akron should help the Blazers start off their 2025 campaign with a couple easy wins but where from there they can find success remains to be seen. They miss out on lower tier American Conference opponents Charlotte and Temple and get nearly all of their remaining chances for wins on the road, where they are just 1-18 in their last 19.
Pick: UNDER 4.5 Wins
UMass
Conference: MAC
Over/Under: 4.5 wins
Since jumping to the FBS level in 2012 the Minutemen have never won more than four games in a season and over the last three years have only been victorious in just six games total, with four of those coming against FCS teams. This year their schedule doesn’t include fellow conference cellar dwellers Ball State and Eastern Michigan while also having them travel for their best shots at MAC victories against Kent State, Akron and Central Michigan. Never fun picking against your alma mater, but this was one of the easiest choices of the article.
Pick: UNDER 4.5 Wins
Wake Forest
Conference: ACC
Over/Under: 4.5 wins
A lackluster non-conference schedule that includes Kennesaw State, Western Carolina and Delaware should give the Demon Deacons three wins on the season but unfortunately it’s what awaits them in the ACC that has me leaning low. Of the five other bottom teams in their conference, Wake misses Stanford, California, Syracuse and BC while also having to travel on the road to play Virginia.
Pick: UNDER 4.5 Wins
New Mexico
Conference: Mountain West
Over/Under: 3.5 wins
New Mexico has no chance of winning any of their six road games (Michigan, UCLA, San Jose St, Boise St, UNLV, Air Force) and because of that would then need to post a winning record at home to clear their total, something they have not done in nine years. Considering they will only be favored in two games all year, it’s an easy choice to go low on the Lobos in 2025.
Pick: UNDER 3.5 Wins
Purdue
Conference: Big Ten
Over/Under: 3.5 wins
Two easy matchups against Ball State and Southern Illinois start the year for The Boilermakers but after that they will find themselves as underdogs in all ten remaining games thanks to a tough conference schedule that makes finding those additional two wins needed to clear their total very unlikely to happen.
Pick: UNDER 3.5 Wins
Stanford
Conference: ACC
Over/Under: 3.5 wins
A difficult non-conference schedule that includes road trips to BYU and Hawaii along with hosting Notre Dame and a San Jose State team they lost to last season does the Cardinal no favors. Where they can find ACC wins is a concern as well considering their best chances would have been Wake Forest, who isn’t on their schedule, and Virginia, who they have to go on the road to play.
Pick: UNDER 3.5 Wins
Temple
Conference: American
Over/Under: 3.5 wins
The Owls are 1-27 in their last 28 games and haven’t won a road game since 2021, which is especially concerning considering their four most winnable games this season are away from home. Temple has gone five straight years since they cleared three wins, the streak continues in 2025.
Pick: UNDER 3.5 Wins
Frequently Asked Questions
How do college football win totals work?
Sportsbooks set a projected number of wins for each team before the season. You can bet whether the actual number of wins will be over or under that total, including regular season games only unless otherwise specified.
Do bowl games count for NCAA win total bets?
In most cases, no. Win total bets are graded based on regular season games only. Always check your sportsbook’s rules to confirm.
When is the best time to bet NCAA win totals?
Early in the offseason can give you the best numbers, but waiting until closer to kickoff allows you to factor in transfers, injuries, and updated depth charts.
What factors influence a team going under their win total?
Strength of schedule, coaching changes, key player departures, travel demands, and recent performance trends all play a role in projecting a team to go under.
