The surging Boston Red Sox (71-59) look to complete an epic four-game sweep against their bitter rivals, the struggling New York Yankees (69-60), in Sunday night’s highly anticipated finale at Yankee Stadium. After thoroughly dominating the first three games of this series by a combined score of 19-4, Boston has a chance to extend their remarkable winning streak against the Yankees to nine consecutive games. I’ve analyzed this matchup extensively and see significant advantages for the Red Sox, who’ve completely outclassed New York in every facet of the game throughout this series.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+138) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Carlos Rodon Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-170) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Trevor Story Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) ★★★★☆
Red Sox vs Yankees Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +138 | -164 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-150) | -1.5 (+130) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115) |
Opening Line: Yankees -155, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement in this game tells an interesting story. Despite Boston’s complete dominance in the first three games of this series, the Yankees remain significant favorites. This suggests sharp money continues to back New York with Carlos Rodon on the mound against Dustin May. The slight movement from -155 to -164 indicates modest professional support for the Yankees, but I see this as an overreaction to starting pitching matchups while ignoring the current form of both teams. The run line moving to -150 for Boston +1.5 reveals bettors aren’t convinced the Yankees can win by multiple runs even as favorites.
Pitching Matchup: Dustin May vs Carlos Rodon – Who Has the Edge?
Boston Red Sox: Dustin May (6-7, 4.85 ERA)
- May has struggled with consistency this season but has shown flashes of his former Dodgers potential
- His 4.85 ERA doesn’t tell the full story – he’s been plagued by a few blow-up outings
- Strikeout numbers remain solid with 97 Ks in 104 innings
- Has performed better on the road (4.12 ERA) than at Fenway (5.38 ERA)
New York Yankees: Carlos Rodon (13-7, 3.24 ERA)
- Rodon has been the Yankees’ most reliable starter with Gil struggling and Cole injured
- Impressive 169 strikeouts in 152.2 innings with a solid 1.07 WHIP
- Has shown some vulnerability recently, allowing 8 earned runs over his last 11.2 innings
- Has benefited from excellent run support at 5.6 runs per game in his starts
Advantage: Yankees have the edge with Rodon, but the gap isn’t as wide as the numbers suggest. May’s road performance and the current offensive form of both teams narrows this advantage considerably.
Bullpen Breakdown
Boston’s bullpen has been simply exceptional during this series, allowing just one run over 10 innings of work. Closer Aroldis Chapman has been virtually unhittable all season with a minuscule 1.08 ERA, while setup men Greg Weissert, Justin Wilson and Jordan Hicks have formed a formidable bridge. The Yankees’ bullpen, meanwhile, has been in complete disarray, with no clear hierarchy and multiple blown leads over the past few weeks. Even with the impending return of Fernando Cruz, New York’s relief corps appears shaky and unreliable compared to Boston’s cohesive unit. This represents perhaps the single biggest advantage for the Red Sox in this matchup.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Boston has won 8 straight games against New York, outscoring them 52-16 during this stretch
- The Red Sox are 15-5 in their last 20 games against AL East opponents
- Yankees are just 4-15 against the Red Sox and Blue Jays this season
- Boston’s Trevor Story is red-hot, batting .333 with 5 homers over his last 22 games
- Yankees’ Aaron Judge is hitting just .218 since returning from the injured list on August 5
- Boston is 23-12 in night games since June 1
- The Yankees are 32-35 against teams with winning records this season
- The Red Sox have covered the +1.5 run line in 17 of their last 21 road games
Trevor Story’s Resurgence: The Complete Player Returns
Trevor Story has silenced his critics with an extraordinary comeback season, reaching the 20/20 club (20 HR, 22 SB) with his homer in Saturday’s blowout. At 32 years old, Story has become the oldest Red Sox player ever to achieve this milestone, demonstrating his exceptional all-around abilities after battling injuries in previous seasons. Against the Yankees, Story has been particularly devastating, going 7-for-11 with two doubles, a homer and five RBIs in this series alone. His success against left-handed pitching (.287 average, .512 slugging) makes him a particularly appealing matchup against Rodon tonight.
Yankee Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
While Yankee Stadium typically favors power hitters with its short right field porch (1.134 HR factor), it’s been playing closer to neutral for overall run scoring with a 0.994 runs factor. This makes the total interesting, as it suggests the park isn’t quite the offensive paradise it’s often portrayed to be. Dustin May’s sinker-heavy approach could actually benefit from the Yankees’ aggressive swings for the fences, inducing ground balls rather than fly balls that might reach the short porch. Boston’s hitters have shown no problems adjusting to the Stadium’s dimensions, collecting 30 hits across the first three games. The primetime ESPN broadcast atmosphere could add pressure to a Yankees team already feeling the weight of fan frustration.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Red Sox-Yankees Showdown
Primary Play: Boston Red Sox Moneyline (+138)
I’m completely sold on the Red Sox extending their dominance in this rivalry. The current form disparity between these teams is simply too significant to ignore, regardless of the starting pitching matchup. Boston has outscored the Yankees 19-4 in this series and has won eight straight against them. The intangibles also favor Boston – they’re playing with supreme confidence while the Yankees look completely lost. At +138, this presents tremendous value on a Red Sox team that should be closer to even money given recent performance.
Strong Value Play: Trevor Story Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Story has been locked in during this series, and his season-long resurgence has culminated with his entry into the 20/20 club. He’s 7-for-11 in the series with multiple extra-base hits, and his success against lefties gives him a favorable matchup against Rodon. The Yankees’ defensive alignment with Stanton in right field also creates opportunities for extra bases on balls in play. With Story batting .333 with a .982 OPS over his last 22 games, getting plus money on this prop represents significant value.
Worth Considering: Carlos Rodon Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-170)
Despite the juice, this prop stands out as Boston’s disciplined approach at the plate has frustrated Yankee pitching all series. The Red Sox have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in MLB, and they’ve been especially patient during this series. Rodon has exceeded 7 strikeouts in just 8 of his 24 starts this season, and the pressure of needing to deliver a stopper performance could lead to him trying to be too fine with his pitches. While the odds aren’t ideal, the probability strongly favors the under.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Story | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +105 | ★★★★☆ |
| Carlos Rodon | Under 7.5 Strikeouts | -170 | ★★★★☆ |
| Dustin May | Over 4.5 Strikeouts | -150 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Jarren Duran | Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs | +125 | ★★★★☆ |
| Aaron Judge | Under 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs | -130 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Yankees in Complete Disarray as Red Sox Surge
The contrast between these teams couldn’t be more stark. Boston is playing with supreme confidence, executing in all phases of the game, while the Yankees appear completely lost. The psychological advantage belongs entirely to the Red Sox after three consecutive dominant performances in the Bronx. Even with Rodon on the mound, it’s difficult to envision the Yankees suddenly fixing all their issues – poor defense, anemic offense, and bullpen inconsistency – overnight. Boston’s balanced attack and superior bullpen should be enough to complete the sweep and deliver tremendous value at +138 odds.
Score Prediction: Red Sox 6, Yankees 4
