Jockey Club Gold Cup S. (G1) | Saratoga, Race 5 | Sunday, August 31, 2025
Purse: $1,000,000 | Distance: 1 1/4 Miles | Surface: Dirt
Post Time: 1:45 p.m. ET | Breeders’ Cup Classic “Win and You’re In”
Jockey Club Gold Cup Picks
#3 Sierra Leone
#2 Highland Falls
#4 Mindframe
Live Longshot Picks
#8 Antiquarian – Improving 4-year-old was a strong second in the Suburban and could crash the trifecta with another step forward.
#9 Banishing – Comes in off a sharp win in the Charles Town Classic; versatile, in form, and consistently fires.
#7 Phileas Fogg – Two wins in his last three starts, including the Suburban; if he’s left alone early, he could get brave on the front end.
Jockey Club Gold Cup Analysis
The 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup has drawn one of the most competitive fields in years, bringing together the last two Breeders’ Cup Classic winners, a defending Gold Cup champion, and an undefeated rising star — all at the demanding distance of 1 1/4 miles on Saratoga’s main track.
The race serves as a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but it also acts as a divisional sorting hat, with several major players for year-end honors squaring off for supremacy. The big names are here: #3 Sierra Leone, the reigning Classic hero and recent Whitney winner; #4 Mindframe, the upstart who held off Sierra Leone in the Stephen Foster; and #2 Highland Falls, the defending champion of this race and a hard-trying grinder built for 10 furlongs.
Toss in #5 White Abarrio, #9 Banishing, #8 Antiquarian, and #7 Phileas Fogg, and the setup is here for fireworks late.
#3 Sierra Leone enters as the horse to beat. He’s a one-run closer with serious credentials, including last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic victory and a Grade 1 Whitney win earlier this month, where he circled seven wide and reeled in Highland Falls in deep stretch. He’s 12-for-12 hitting the board in his career and brings Chad Brown and Flavien Prat back to the Spa with a live favorite. He’ll get a hot pace to chase and should be flying late. All systems go.
#2 Highland Falls, the defending Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, has made two starts in 2025 — a tight allowance win and a strong runner-up finish in the Whitney. He led briefly in mid-stretch that day before being overtaken by Sierra Leone. A grinding type who thrives at this distance, Highland Falls loves a fight and will get a stalking trip just behind the speed. If the front-runners fold and Sierra Leone gets stopped or arrives too late, he could land a repeat.
#4 Mindframe, unbeaten in three starts this year, including a convincing win in the Stephen Foster, has shown he can press or stalk the pace and still finish with authority. The question is whether he can stretch his brilliance to 10 furlongs against the deepest field he’s ever faced. He drew away from Sierra Leone in the Foster, but will have more pressure and fewer favors in this setup. That said, he’s tactical, ultra-consistent, and absolutely capable of landing a knockout blow if he fires.
#5 White Abarrio, the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, hasn’t looked like himself in 2025. He was a non-factor in the Whitney and didn’t do much running late in the Met Mile. His back-class is undeniable, and his best Beyers fit here, but he’s shown little of that spark this summer.
#1 Disarm is consistent and capable of hitting the board, and was third in the Whitney with a ground-saving trip. He’s a reliable closer who often picks up checks in Grade 1s. He lacks the knockout punch to win, but if the pace melts down, he could fill out supers at a price.
#7 Phileas Fogg, winner of two of his last three starts, including a wire-to-wire score in the Grade 2 Suburban, will go straight to the front again and try to stretch them out. With #6 Contrary Thinking entered to ensure an honest pace for Sierra Leone, he may not get the breather he needs. But if he can carve out moderate fractions, this tough gelding might hang on longer than expected.
#8 Antiquarian was a game second in the Suburban behind Phileas Fogg and is one of several improving 4-year-olds in this field. He has the right style — stalk and punch — and comes in with a career-best Beyer. John Velazquez climbs aboard for Pletcher, and he’s a long shot with a live chance to get into the trifecta.
#9 Banishing, just eight days removed from a sharp win in the $1 million Charles Town Classic, is versatile, in top form, and consistently fires. He may be the first to launch a move into the stretch, but the short turnaround and steep class hike are legitimate concerns. Still, he’s sharp and always shows up.
#6 Contrary Thinking, eased in the Whitney, returns here as a confirmed rabbit for stablemate Sierra Leone. He’s not a win threat but will play a critical role in shaping the race. His presence all but ensures an honest pace.
Pace Picture
Contrary Thinking and Phileas Fogg will guarantee a fast, early tempo. Mindframe, Highland Falls, White Abarrio, Antiquarian, and Banishing will sit just behind, while Sierra Leone and Disarm drop back early and look to uncoil late. Highland Falls may get first run like in the Whitney, but if Sierra Leone finds clear sailing, he’ll be motoring past in the final sixteenth.
Quick Hits on Every Starter
#3 Sierra Leone – Deep closer with serious credentials. Gets pace and should be flying late.
#2 Highland Falls – Gutsy defending champ; thrives at 1 1/4 miles and rounding into top form.
#4 Mindframe – Talented and tactical; beat Sierra Leone in the Foster, but now faces pace pressure and distance test.
#5 White Abarrio – 2023 Classic winner; form has tailed off, but the back class is there.
#1 Disarm – Honest, consistent, lacks punch to win but could rally into third or fourth.
#7 Phileas Fogg – Two wins in last three; likely pacesetter with a shot to stick around if not hounded.
#8 Antiquarian – Improving 4-year-old; second in Suburban and could spice up exotics.
#9 Banishing – Comes in hot off Charles Town score; will need best effort on short rest.
#6 Contrary Thinking – The rabbit has one job — go fast early and set things up for Sierra Leone.
Final Verdict
This race has class, pace, and storyline depth. Sierra Leone is the pick to roll by late and stamp himself as the top older dirt horse in training. If his price is too short, Highland Falls should sit the perfect trip and might be the one they all have to pass at the eighth pole. Mindframe, despite a new test, is too talented to leave out of the top three. Behind them, longshots like Antiquarian, Banishing, and Phileas Fogg offer serious value in vertical plays. While Sierra Leone looks like the most logical pick, if he and Mindframe are overbet, and Highland Falls happens to go off at 4-1 or better, he might be the better play.
Hit the link to get all of Kenneth’s Saratoga Picks
