Two College Football Free Plays
Utah State at Vanderbilt
New Mexico State at New Mexico
As I mentioned in my Weekly Recap article, I have three Asterisk Spots to play this weekend.
One can be found in my NFL article.
The other two are college plays and can be found right here.
Before I get to the games, here are the basic numbers: the Asterisk Play was 9-20 in college last season. That’s a 69% Fade play.
It’s 1-2 this season (that’s a correction from my weekly recap article, where I had it at 0-1.)
I’m taking them both, expecting a split in the worst case, based on past performance.
It’s a 12:45 PM ET kickoff time for Utah State at Vanderbilt, with Vandy favored by -22′.
On paper, record-wise, it looks like a pretty good matchup as the 3-1 Aggies visit the 4-0 Commodores.
And both teams are 4-0 ATS.
So what’s with the 22′ point spread?
I don’t follow either of these two, but the spread seems a tad high.
So it’s time to take a closer look.
Part of the reason can be found in rankings, Strength of Schedule, and Conference.
Utah State plays in the Mountain West.
They’re ranked at 85 with a Strength of Schedule rating of 160.
Vandy plays in the powerhouse SEC.
They’re ranked as the 21st best team in the country, with a Strength of Schedule rating of 105.
But is that enough of a differential to warrant a spread of more than three TDs???
Possibly not, but a look at the Vanderbilt scores is very revealing.
The Commodores have been very accommodating to their supporters.
Week one, they beat up on Charleston Southern 45-3.
Okay, we can chuck that one out because it’s an FCS opponent. But in week two . . .
Vandy 44, Virg Tech 30.
Followed by a 24-point win over South Carolina and last week a 49-point win over Georgia Southern.
That’s a 32-point average margin of victory over FBS opponents.
They’re scoring 47.5 PPG on offense and giving up only 13. That’s a +34 differential.
Hence, -22′. (Yes, “hence.”)
Since I’m making this buy based on the Asterisk Play, it seems the best thing to do is go back and look at last year’s 29 games that qualified and see if any of them had a Favorite of 21 or more points.
And I found two.
On August 31st, ‘Bama was -31 in an Asterisk Spot against Western Kentucky.
They won 63-0.
On September 7th, Mississippi was a 41’ 41-point Favorite against Middle Tennessee State.
They won 52-3.
So I have two spots that were -21 or more.
They both won, and both were SEC teams just like Vandy.
What’s not to like?
Well, for one thing, I have another play that says take Utah State plus the points.
It’s the same model that gave me the three Double Digit Dogs that won SU last week: Tulsa, Syracuse, and Maryland. The other two spots that qualified, Washington State and Stanford, both lost, so it was 3-2 on the week, 16-8 on the season.
When I get a conflict on a game between two of my handicapping systems, I usually stay away from it. But the Asterisk Play has a much longer track record of success across all sports. And I’ll stick with it until those scales of Justice start to level out.
Next up is New Mexico State at New Mexico -14, kicking off at 4:00 PM EST.
The first thing I think of while looking at this game is – haven’t I already used one of these teams already this season?
And if I did, was it a good ‘cap or was I off in my analysis of them?
So it’s off to my database to peruse the first couple of weeks of the season. (Yes, “peruse”.)
And what do you know, I see that in week three I bet against New Mexico State and took LA Tech – 10.
I used it for my article dated 9/12.
And they won. By 35 points!
AND – it was an Asterisk Play.
Which tells me I’ve got a decent handle on New Mexico State at the start of the season.
When to Buy Recommendations:
Vandy is -22′ across the board but will likely go higher. Already bought this one.
Missed out on the best number at New Mexico -14, and hope it doesn’t turn out to be a key number ‘cuz now I have to beat it with a hook on top of those two TD’s.
I see extra juice starting to show up on New Mexico, so I bought this one this morning, too, before it goes to -15.
(And if you haven’t seen “Witness for the Prosecution”, put it at the top of your Must See list!)
Buys:
Vandy -22′
N Mex -14′
Recap: 0-2
Record: 6-7
Review: Lost with East Carolina and Washington State
