Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday September 27th, 12:00 PM
Where: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
TV: ABC
Point Spread: ND -3 / ARK +3
Over/Under Total: 64
In what will be the first-ever meeting between the schools, the Arkansas Razorbacks host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday at noon in Lafayette. Neither team enters the game particularly happy with how their season has started, and both will be looking to end September with some sort of positive momentum.
MIKE DROP
Arkansas was just a few yards away from beginning the year with a 3-1 record before running back Mike Washington fumbled in the final minute against Memphis last week, and instead, the Razorbacks sit at 2-2 with Notre Dame and a majority of their SEC opponents awaiting them. Up until that point, Washington had been nothing but positive as the driving force of the Arkansas backfield that had helped propel their rushing attack to 10th in the country in yards per game, but unfortunately, one mishap is what will be remembered. Butter fingers have definitely not gone well for Washington in the past, as his team is just 1-5 in the last six when he fumbles the ball, and oddly enough, scoring a touchdown has seen similar results, as the Razorbacks’ back is just 2-9 in the last 11 games when he gets into the endzone.
GREENLIGHT
The Razorbacks’ offense has scored at least 30 points in every game this season under the direction of quarterback Taylen Green, who is currently tied for the SEC lead in touchdown passes with 12. Granted the team did pad their stats through the air a bit in the week one pummeling of FCS cupcake Alabama A&M, half of Green’s TD passes on the year came in that one game, and he has had a more difficult time finding that same success against the uptick in competition with just two touchdowns to go with two interceptions over the last couple of weeks against Ole Miss and Memphis. The Notre Dame defense will have to be ready to defend against Green’s dual threat capabilities, as he has rushed for over 300 yards over his last three games to go along with two scores on the ground. And unlike Mike Washington, when Taylen Green rushes for a score, it has led to success for his team, as he has posted a record of 19-1 in his last 20 games when running for a touchdown.
O’MEGA THE ALPHA
The top target through the air for Arkansas is undoubtedly wide receiver O’Mega Blake, who has more than twice as many yards and receptions as anyone else on the team while also leading in touchdown catches. He has at least five receptions and 60 receiving yards in every game so far this year, and seems to have found a prime spot in the Razorbacks’ passing attack in what is his third school in the last three years after previous stops at Charlotte and South Carolina. Both Miami and Texas A&M found success through the air against what was supposed to be a strong Notre Dame passing defense (that instead is near the bottom of the barrel statistically, ranking 132nd in passing yards allowed per game) and if Arkansas is going to pull off the upset, they will need their primary offensive trio of Green, Blake and Washington as well to play mistake free football.
PLAYOFFS?!
After dropping their first two games of the year, the Fighting Irish were finally able to get off the snide with a blowout win at home against Purdue. While some may believe that Notre Dame’s season and BCS playoffs hopes are already done for, if they do run the table and win their next nine games against seven Power 5 teams and two of the best mid-majors in Boise State and Navy, and factor in that their two losses were against top ten teams by a combined four points, it easy to see why the Irish faithful are still holding out hope for another chance at a postseason title run.
LOVE THE PRICE
Despite having the backfield tandem of Jeremiyah Love and Jardarian Price, the Notre Dame rushing attack ranks just 71st nationally thanks in large part to questionable play calling to begin the season in their losses against Miami and Texas A&M. CJ Carr has been promising at quarterback and appears to be the future at the position for the Irish, but the true strength of the offense and team itself is the prolific backfield of Love and Price. Both were able to find plenty of success against Purdue. Love ran for over 150 yards along with two scores, and Price had a career day with four touchdowns overall, and the duo is set to do it again this weekend. The Razorbacks have some talent up front, most notably defensive lineman Cameron Ball and linebacker Xavian Sorey, who led them in tackles and season ago and continues to do this year as well, but as a whole the team has struggled against the run to start the year (86th in yards allowed per game) and are set up to face a constant backfield barrage of Love and Price on Saturday afternoon.
PASSING CARR
Redshirt freshman CJ Carr has seen his quarterback rating improve with each game so far this season and is coming off his most efficient outing of the season, completing over 80% of his passes while also going interception-free for the first time. Receivers Malachi Fields and Jordan Faison, tight end Eli Raridon, and Jeremiyah Love out of the backfield have been Carr’s top options through the air so far, though a complete lack of chemistry with expected top option Jaden Greathouse remains an issue that coordinator Mike Denbrock has yet to solve in the play calling. Arkansas has allowed over 30 points in each of its last two games, and Carr should have plenty of opportunities to spread the ball around, which is another area he has improved on, having completed more passes to different players each week as the young season has progressed.
THE FINAL DECISION
If recent history is any sort of indication of success, Notre Dame is an easy pick on Saturday. They are 20-1 straight up in their last 21 road games against unranked opponents, with a nearly equally impressive 15-4-2 mark against the spread. The Irish have also gone 16-5 in their 21 away games against Power 5 teams while also rewarding those who bet on the adage of taking the teams that you think will win outright, as Notre Dame has covered in twelve straight victories. Arkansas, on the other hand, has struggled of late against quality competition, having gone 1-9 in its last 10 games against ranked opponents. It also doesn’t look great for the Razorbacks that of their last 12 regular-season wins, a whopping eight have come as a 20+ point favorite in cupcake matchups against lower-tier competition.
My pick of Notre Dame, though, is more to do with what is going on now. Arkansas is coming off an exhausting, heartbreaking loss to Memphis, while the Irish enter Fayetteville coming off a blowout victory against Purdue that allowed them to fine-tune and get things right with the offense. Notre Dame still has BCS Playoff hopes, and on the other side, the Razorbacks just fumbled away a chance to put themselves in position for a bowl run, and now instead face a schedule over their last eight games that might see them favored in just one matchup at most. The point spread opened at 6.5 but has continued to slide since and now sits at 3.5. Wait for it to drop or buy the half point, but at 3 points, I am undoubtedly backing the Irish to get the win and cover on the road in Arkansas.
Mike’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Notre Dame -3
