The St. Louis Cardinals (79-83) close out their 2025 regular season campaign against the NL Central rival Chicago Cubs (92-70) in what promises to be an intriguing pitching matchup at Wrigley Field. Kyle Leahy has been one of the Cardinals’ few bright spots this season, while Javier Assad looks to build momentum heading into the Cubs’ postseason run. With the Cubs looking to secure home-field advantage in the Wild Card round and the Cardinals playing for pride, I’m seeing several betting angles worth exploring for this season finale showdown.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Under 8.0 Runs (-111) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Kyle Leahy Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-155) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline (+144) ★★★☆☆
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +144 | -169 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-151) | -1.5 (+128) |
| Total | Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-111) |
Opening Line: Cubs -160, Total 8
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line has seen minimal movement since opening, with the Cubs shifting slightly from -160 to -169, indicating modest public support for the playoff-bound home team. However, what’s most telling is the lack of significant movement on the total, which has remained steady at 8 runs despite Wrigley Field’s reputation as one of MLB’s more pitcher-friendly venues (0.898 run factor in 2025). Professional bettors appear to be respecting both starting pitchers in this matchup, and I’m seeing value on the under with two capable arms taking the mound in what could be cool, late-September conditions at the Friendly Confines.
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Leahy vs Javier Assad – Who Has the Edge?
St. Louis Cardinals: Kyle Leahy (4-2, 3.18)
- Has been a revelation for the Cardinals with a stellar 3.18 ERA across 85 innings
- Impressive 79:28 K:BB ratio shows excellent command and swing-and-miss stuff
- Holding opponents to a respectable 1.26 WHIP and has collected 18 holds this season
- Has been particularly effective on the road with a 2.94 ERA away from Busch Stadium
Chicago Cubs: Javier Assad (3-1, 4.26)
- Showing flashes of his 2024 form after returning from injury with a 4.26 ERA
- Control has been an issue with just 17 strikeouts against 11 walks in 31.2 innings
- Cubs have been cautious with his workload, rarely allowing him beyond 5 innings
- Has been more effective at Wrigley, posting a 3.81 home ERA this season
Advantage: Cardinals. Leahy’s consistent performance and superior strikeout ability gives St. Louis a notable edge in the starting pitching department. Assad’s limited workload also means the Cubs will likely need 4+ innings from their bullpen.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Cubs hold a significant edge in the bullpen department, ranking 7th in MLB with a 3.41 relief ERA compared to the Cardinals’ middling 4.12 mark (16th). Chicago’s relief corps features several reliable arms including closer Daniel Palencia (22 saves) and setup men Brad Keller and Caleb Thielbar (25 holds each). The Cardinals counter with JoJo Romero (8 saves, 24 holds) and Riley O’Brien, but lack the depth Chicago possesses. With both starters unlikely to work deep, this bullpen disparity provides the Cubs with a clear late-game advantage, particularly if they’re protecting a lead after 5-6 innings.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Cardinals are 24-19 in one-run games this season, showing resilience in tight contests
- Cubs are 37-19 against NL Central opponents in 2025, including 10-5 against the Cardinals
- Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these teams at Wrigley Field
- Cubs have won 7 straight home games against St. Louis dating back to last season
- Cardinals are 34-46 on the road this season, while Chicago boasts a 49-32 home record
- St. Louis is 7-4 in Kyle Leahy’s last 11 appearances as an underdog
- Cubs are averaging 4.91 runs per game compared to the Cardinals’ 4.28
- Wrigley Field has played as the 4th most pitcher-friendly park in MLB this season (0.898 run factor)
Nico Hoerner: Cubs’ Catalyst Looking to Finish Strong
Nico Hoerner has been the engine that powers the Cubs offense all season, and he enters this finale on a tear, batting .318 with 11 hits and 7 runs scored over his last 8 games. His ability to work counts and cause havoc on the basepaths (36 stolen bases) makes him particularly dangerous against a Cardinals team that’s struggled to control the running game (allowing 0.75 stolen bases per game). Hoerner’s success rate against right-handed pitchers like Leahy (.283 BA) suggests he could be the difference-maker in what projects as a low-scoring affair. His over 1.5 total bases prop (-122) stands out as one of the more intriguing player props in this matchup.
Wrigley Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Wrigley Field has played surprisingly pitcher-friendly in 2025, ranking as the 4th most favorable park for pitchers with a run factor of just 0.898. While it’s historically known for how wind conditions can dramatically impact games, late September at Wrigley typically features cooler temperatures and less dramatic wind effects. Today’s forecast calls for temperatures in the low 60s with light winds, which should further suppress offense. The park’s spacious outfield has been particularly tough on power hitters this season, with a home run factor of 0.883 (6th lowest in MLB). These conditions align perfectly with Leahy’s ground-ball inducing style and suggest runs could be at a premium in this season finale.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Cardinals-Cubs Showdown
Primary Play: Under 8.0 Runs (-111)
This total simply looks too high given the pitching matchup and venue factors. Kyle Leahy has been quietly excellent for St. Louis, while Assad has shown improved command at home. Wrigley Field’s 0.898 run factor this season ranks among the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball, and with both teams potentially resting key players in this finale, I’m expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. The Cardinals’ offense has been particularly anemic on the road (4.1 runs per game), while the Cubs may approach this game cautiously with playoff considerations in mind. I’d play this under down to 7.5.
Strong Value Play: Cardinals Moneyline (+144)
The significant starting pitching edge with Leahy makes this a value play worth considering. While the Cubs have dominated this season series, they have little to play for in this finale beyond momentum, while St. Louis would love nothing more than to play spoiler against their rivals. Leahy’s excellent road performance combined with Assad’s limited workload creates a scenario where the Cardinals could steal this game. At +144, the implied 41% win probability represents value against my projections giving St. Louis a 45-46% chance.
Worth Considering: Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-122)
Hoerner has been scorching hot down the stretch and excels against right-handed pitching. With his ability to collect extra-base hits (32 doubles this season) and his knack for multi-hit games (47 this season), this prop offers solid value even at the minus price. Hoerner has exceeded 1.5 total bases in 6 of his last 8 games and should see plenty of opportunities leading off for Chicago.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | Over 3.5 Strikeouts | -155 | ★★★★☆ |
| Nico Hoerner | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -122 | ★★★★☆ |
| Nolan Arenado | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +125 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Matt Shaw | Over 0.5 Total Bases | -189 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Javier Assad | Under 3.5 Strikeouts | +107 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Low-Scoring Finale Favors Pitchers
Season finales are notoriously difficult to handicap, but the pitching matchup and venue factors provide clear direction here. Kyle Leahy has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing Cardinals season, while the Cubs will be looking to enter the postseason healthy and confident. I expect a tight, low-scoring affair where pitching and defense take center stage. The under 8 runs represents the strongest play, but don’t sleep on the Cardinals’ moneyline value with the superior starter on the mound. In what has been a long season for St. Louis, ending with a victory over their rivals would provide a small measure of satisfaction heading into what will surely be an active offseason.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 4, Cubs 3
