The National League Championship Series rolls into a crucial Game 4 on Thursday night at Dodger Stadium, where the Los Angeles Dodgers look to punch their ticket to the World Series while the Philadelphia Phillies fight to extend their season. Los Angeles leads the best-of-seven 2–1 after Philadelphia exploded for an 8–2 win in Game 3, reminding everyone this team can swing its way back into any series. Cristopher Sánchez gets the call for the Phillies, opposing Tyler Glasnow, who aims to restore order for the Dodgers. With first pitch set for 6:08 PM ET, expect a tense, tactical chess match under the California lights.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Under 7.5 Runs (-110) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Cristopher Sánchez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105) ★★★☆☆
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Odds & Line Movement
| Market | Philadelphia | Los Angeles |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +101 | -145 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-182) | -1.5 (+155) |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -140, Total 7.5
Sharp Money Movement
Oddsmakers hung the Dodgers around -140, and the number has nudged toward -145 behind early public support. Sharper action has shown up on Philadelphia’s +1.5 run line and the Under 7.5 after Game 3’s ten-run outburst inflated perception. Handle distribution sits roughly 60% LAD tickets vs 55% PHI handle—telling you bigger money leans toward the dog and the Under. Both clubs’ bullpen usage sets up well for a more conservative, lower-scoring game Thursday.
Pitching Matchup: Cristopher Sánchez vs Tyler Glasnow
Philadelphia Phillies – Cristopher Sánchez (LHP, 1–0, 3.60 ERA)
- Tossed 5.2 innings of two-run ball vs LAD in Game 1 of the NLCS rematch in April.
- Elite 57% ground-ball rate keeps him out of big innings; only 0.7 HR/9 allowed this season.
- Has posted 9 strikeouts per 9 innings this postseason with a 1.22 WHIP.
- Primary challenge is right-handed power—Dodgers righties own a .414 SLG vs lefties.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Tyler Glasnow (RHP, 2–0, 2.83 ERA)
- Has struck out 25 batters in 19.1 postseason innings with a 1.10 WHIP.
- Dominant at home (2.10 ERA over last seven Dodger Stadium starts).
- Racked up 11 Ks over 7 frames in his last home appearance.
- Did get tagged by Philadelphia in April (5 ER in 2 IP) but is in far better form now.
Edge: Glasnow by a sliver due to elite swing-and-miss metrics and home comfort, though Sánchez’s ground-ball profile makes him a live dog to outperform expectations.
Bullpen Comparison
Philadelphia’s back-end combo of Matt Strahm and Jhoan Duran has been lights out (2.12 ERA in October), but middle-relief leaks remain. The Dodgers feature Evan Phillips (0.00 ERA this postseason) and Alex Vesia as anchors for Dave Roberts’ late-inning mix. Both units are fresh after short workloads Wednesday, slightly tilting the edge to L.A.’s depth and home-field matchup options.
Key Trends & Angles
- Dodgers lead series 2–1
- Under is 13–7 in last 20 postseason games at Dodger Stadium
- Phillies 4–1 in Sánchez’s last five starts
- Dodgers 22–11 in playoff home games since 2022
- Phillies scoring 4.8 RPG this postseason; Dodgers at 5.1
- Road teams 3–1 ATS in this series
Player Focus: Mookie Betts & Bryce Harper
Betts is locked in (.375 AVG, 1.054 OPS this series) and owns a 4-for-8 mark against Sánchez. Harper has found his stride again after a two-hit, HR Game 3, but faces a different animal in Glasnow’s rising fastball and power curve. Betts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120) remains a top prop play given his multi-category impact and comfort at home.
Dodger Stadium Factors
Chavez Ravine continues to suppress scoring (0.940 run factor) despite its 1.12 HR index. Cool mid-60s temps and light breezes toward right field Thursday night favor pitchers and defensive efficiency. Expect early aggression to fade into a battle of bullpens as the game progresses.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Game 4
Primary Play: Under 7.5 (-110)
Both pitchers profile as strikeout-efficient arms in a park that limits damage. Managers will be quick to the bullpen in a tight spot, keeping run expectations low. Sharp consensus backs the Under again after an inflated total from Game 3.
Secondary Play: Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-120)
Betts has delivered in six straight postseason home games and continues to set the tone offensively. His prop offers steady ROI with multi-path value through contact and run production.
Value Play: Cristopher Sánchez Over 4.5 Ks (+105)
Sánchez’s sinker/change mix is generating swings outside the zone at a career-high rate. Dodgers hitters own a 26% K rate vs left-handers this postseason, creating a sneaky path to five punchouts.
Player Props Board
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Over 4.5 Strikeouts | +105 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Bryce Harper | To Hit a Home Run | +350 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Tyler Glasnow | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Freddie Freeman | To Record an RBI | +130 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Pitching Should Set the Tone Thursday Night
Game 4 sets up as a classic October duel between two teams with contrasting styles — the Dodgers’ discipline and power against Philadelphia’s ground-ball pitching and contact offense. Glasnow has the higher ceiling, but Sánchez’s movement profile and poise make this a live dog spot for Philly. Expect runs to come at a premium and the Under to cash again in a tight, low-tempo playoff game.
Score Prediction: Dodgers 4, Phillies 3
