Joe Jensen breaks down the sharp money trends, key pitching edges, and value props as the Dodgers and Blue Jays open the 2025 World Series at Rogers Centre.
The 2025 World Series gets underway Friday night at Rogers Centre as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Los Angeles Dodgers in a classic David vs. Goliath matchup. The defending champion Dodgers bring their four-headed pitching monster to Canada after sweeping the Brewers in the NLCS, while Toronto’s contact-oriented lineup is riding high after outlasting Seattle in a thrilling seven-game ALCS. With Blake Snell ready to deal for LA against Toronto rookie Trey Yesavage, Game 1 sets up as a fascinating contrast in styles that creates several betting opportunities worth exploring.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Dodgers Moneyline (-157) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts (100) ★★★★★
- Value Play: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (110) ★★★★☆
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Los Angeles Dodgers | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -157 | 131 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (105) | +1.5 (-125) |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -150, Total 7.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The moderate line movement from Dodgers -150 to -157 suggests steady professional money backing Los Angeles despite the Blue Jays’ impressive run. What’s more telling is the run line holding steady at +105 for LA despite their dominant pitching this postseason. Sharp bettors recognize Toronto’s contact-heavy approach could keep this game close despite the significant talent gap. The total sitting at 7.5 with slight juice to the over reflects the market’s respect for Snell while acknowledging Toronto’s potent offense that’s averaging 6.5 runs this postseason. Professional money appears slightly more interested in the under given the playoff atmosphere and Snell’s dominance.
Pitching Matchup: Blake Snell vs Trey Yesavage – Who Has the Edge?
Los Angeles Dodgers: Blake Snell (3-0, 0.86 ERA)
- Dominant postseason: 21 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 28 K, 0.52 WHIP
- Strikeout artist with 12 K/9 rate in playoffs, hasn’t allowed a home run in October
- Handled high-pressure road starts masterfully, allowing just 1 ER in 10 innings away from Dodger Stadium
- Left-handed advantage against Blue Jays’ right-heavy lineup that ranked 14th against LHP this season
Toronto Blue Jays: Trey Yesavage (2-1, 4.20 ERA)
- Rookie sensation who has stepped up in October: 15 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 7 BB, 22 K
- Pitched 5.1 no-hit innings with 11 K against Yankees in ALDS
- Struggled with control at times, issuing 3 walks in each of his ALCS starts
- Navigated high-leverage situations impressively, inducing 3 double plays against Mariners in ALCS Game 6
Advantage: Significant edge to Dodgers. Snell is pitching like the Cy Young winner he is, while Yesavage has shown both brilliance and rookie nerves. The pressure of a World Series opener heavily favors the veteran southpaw.
Bullpen Breakdown
Both bullpens have been vulnerabilities throughout the postseason, with Toronto’s relievers posting a concerning 5.52 ERA and LA at 4.88. The key difference is that Dodgers starters have shouldered much more of the load, giving their relievers critical extra rest. LA’s ‘pen has thrown just 27.2 innings this postseason compared to Toronto’s 45.2. The emergence of Roki Sasaki (1.13 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 3 saves) has transformed the Dodgers’ late-inning approach, while the Blue Jays rely heavily on closer Jeff Hoffman (1.23 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 2 saves) but lack consistent bridges to get there. Louis Varland has been Toronto’s most reliable middle reliever, appearing in 10 of 11 playoff games, but fatigue becomes a significant concern after an intense seven-game ALCS.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Dodgers starters have been historically dominant with a combined 1.40 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 10 playoff games
- Blue Jays are hitting a remarkable .442/.510/.930 with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the lineup this postseason
- Los Angeles has won 9 of 10 playoff games, including a 4-game sweep of Milwaukee in the NLCS
- Toronto leads all playoff teams with 6.5 runs per game and has the lowest strikeout rate this October
- Dodgers are 14-3 in Game 1s since 2017, including 3-0 this postseason
- Blue Jays are a perfect 6-0 at Rogers Centre this postseason
- Dodgers have gone under the total in 7 of 10 playoff games thanks to their elite starting pitching
- Toronto is 8-3 to the over this postseason with their contact-heavy offensive approach
Shohei Ohtani’s October Evolution: Can He Replicate NLCS Game 4 Magic?
Shohei Ohtani delivered one of the greatest playoff performances in MLB history in Game 4 of the NLCS, going 3-for-4 with a home run while pitching six shutout innings with 10 strikeouts. After initial struggles at the plate early in the postseason, Ohtani finally broke out with that epic performance, showing why he’s the game’s most unique talent. The extended rest following the NLCS sweep particularly benefits Ohtani, who thrives with additional recovery time between pitching appearances. While he won’t take the mound in Game 1, his bat could be the difference-maker against a Blue Jays pitching staff that’s been vulnerable to power hitters. Look for manager Dave Roberts to deploy Ohtani strategically, potentially using him in high-leverage pinch-running situations late in close games to maximize his game-changing speed.
Rogers Centre Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Rogers Centre plays relatively neutral for run scoring with a 0.975 park factor (19th in MLB), but its 1.011 home run factor slightly favors power hitters. The controlled environment eliminates weather variables, creating consistent conditions that typically benefit elite pitchers. The Blue Jays have turned their home field into a significant advantage this October, winning all six postseason games at Rogers Centre while averaging 6.8 runs per game. The Canadian crowd will create an electric atmosphere that could rattle less experienced Dodgers players, though LA’s veteran-laden roster has abundant postseason experience in hostile environments. Snell’s career numbers at Rogers Centre are solid (3.31 ERA in 3 starts), but he hasn’t pitched there since 2022, so the familiarity advantage clearly belongs to Toronto’s hitters who understand every nuance of their home park.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Dodgers-Blue Jays Showdown
Primary Play: Dodgers Moneyline (-157)
I’m laying the price with the Dodgers and Blake Snell in Game 1. The combination of Snell’s dominance (0.86 ERA this postseason) and the week-long rest advantage for LA’s bullpen creates significant value even at -157. Toronto rookie Trey Yesavage has shown both brilliance and vulnerability, but asking him to match Snell in a World Series opener is an enormous challenge. The Dodgers’ experience edge (their fourth World Series in six years) also cannot be overlooked in a Game 1 setting. While Toronto’s 6-0 home record this postseason is impressive, LA’s 14-3 record in playoff series openers since 2017 is the more relevant trend. I’d play this up to -170.
Strong Value Play: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (110)
This is my favorite player prop for Game 1. Guerrero has been the best hitter in the 2025 postseason, slashing an otherworldly .442/.510/.930 with six home runs. His locked-in approach has produced multiple total bases in 9 of 11 playoff games. While Snell presents a significant challenge, Guerrero has shown he can hit elite pitching, and the Blue Jays’ entire offensive approach revolves around him. At +110, this prop offers substantial value considering Vlad’s current form and the fact he’ll get at least four plate appearances as Toronto’s offensive centerpiece. Even if the Dodgers pitch around him, his exceptional plate discipline should result in quality contact when they do challenge him.
Worth Considering: Blake Snell Over 6.5 Strikeouts (100)
Snell has been a strikeout machine this postseason, recording 28 Ks in just 21 innings. The Blue Jays have the lowest strikeout rate among playoff teams, which makes this a fascinating matchup of strengths, but Snell’s elite swing-and-miss stuff gives him the edge. He’s exceeded 6 strikeouts in all three playoff starts, including 8 Ks against Cincinnati and 11 against Philadelphia. The extended rest between the NLCS and World Series should have Snell at peak performance, and manager Dave Roberts will likely give his ace more leeway in the pitch count given the stakes. With even money odds, the strikeout prop offers excellent value for a pitcher who’s averaged 9.3 Ks per start this season.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | 100 | ★★★★★ |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Over 1.5 Total Bases | 110 | ★★★★☆ |
| Shohei Ohtani | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -110 | ★★★★☆ |
| George Springer | Over 0.5 Total Bases | -180 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Trey Yesavage | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -145 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Dodgers’ Elite Pitching Meets Toronto’s Red-Hot Offense
This World Series opener presents a fascinating clash of strengths – Los Angeles’s historically dominant starting pitching against Toronto’s contact-oriented, high-scoring offense. While the Blue Jays have been magical at Rogers Centre this postseason, Blake Snell and the well-rested Dodgers present their toughest challenge yet. Expect a close, low-scoring affair early before LA’s superior bullpen depth becomes a factor in the later innings. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will continue his hot hitting, but it won’t be enough to overcome the Dodgers’ overall talent advantage. The defending champions take the crucial series opener and establish themselves as the team to beat in this World Series.
Score Prediction: Dodgers 4, Blue Jays 2
