Friday Night Lights Betting Recommendation
It’s been a consistent money maker for me over the past five years. A lot of games qualified, a lot of data gathered over a good amount of time — meaning it was no flash in the pan, it was a handicapping model that had some legs.
- 2020: 28-4, 87%
- 2021: 34-21, 63%
- 2022: 34-32, 51%
- 2023: 21-17, 55%
- 2024: 23-16, 63%
Combined total: 140-87, 61%
I thought it would be the pillar of my play this season, but it hasn’t worked out that way. After seven weeks of college football, the NP Under has only had seven games qualify — and a record of 3-4.
I’ve been forced to scramble, looking for other models to play — a big reason why I’m hovering around .500.
And then all of a sudden there were FOUR games that qualified two weeks back (Week 7), more than half the number of games I’ve had all season. Because of the 3-4 record, I chose not to play them all. I looked at the four spots that qualified, dug a little deeper for some more stats to support the Under, and took the Wyoming/Air Force game.
The line was 57½. They combined for 45 points. The other three games went 2-1, making it a 3-1 day for the play, and entering Week 9 it now sits at 6-5 — profitable again.
Where does it go from here? We’re about to find out.
After no games qualified last week, I have two this week: UAB/Conn and Miss State/Arkansas. The times are separated enough (12:00 p.m. EST and 4:00 p.m. EST) so I can do an “IF” bet if I choose to — always a scenario worth exploring, especially if you like the earlier game better.
In addition to the two Unders, I also have an NP Over spot with North Carolina/Syracuse on Friday night.
Am I looking at playing that game Over? Hell no! I’m playing it, but not the Over. The NP Over spot is 3-9 this season — a 75% fade.
Do I like the number the books hung on this one, 45½? No. But do I ignore handicapping systems of mine that are paying off at a rate of 75%? Hell no again. Especially not when there’s only a 12-game sample and reversion toward the mean isn’t likely to start kicking in yet.
Let’s dive into some numbers to see if I find anything that supports the plays or deters me from betting them.
First up: the Friday night spot.
First stop for handicapping — a check of the database to see if either North Carolina or Syracuse have been in an NP Over spot this season, and if so, was it a winner or loser? No games qualified, so I’m clean there. No reason to eliminate the play.
Basic O/U stats:
NC: 2-5 overall, 0-3 on the road.
Syracuse: 4-4 overall, but just 1-3 on Overs at home.
And the only game that went Over was against an FCS opponent when the Orange put up 66 points against Colgate.
Nothing to deter me there.
They didn’t play last season, so no head-to-head recent matchup to consider (with the insane transfer window being such a big part of the game these days, I don’t give much weight to anything further back than the previous season — too many personnel changes to make it relevant).
Let’s look at some PPG averages.
On offense, NC averages 14.5 PPG. Syracuse scores an average of 19.6 PPG — nothing for an Under bettor to dislike there.
On defense, North Carolina surrenders 28 PPG, Syracuse 29. Hmm… I’m not liking those numbers too much.
North Carolina games average 42 PPG. Syracuse games average 56. And those last two numbers are why I said I don’t like the total, 45½, on this one.
Yeah, I get it — Bill Belichick is a defensive-minded coach, but you know they’re going to get more than their 14.5 PPG average against the Syracuse defense that gives up 29 PPG.
I like most of what I see here, so I’m buying the Under.
Thoughts on When to Buy:
The line opened at 47½. It’s now 45½ all across the board — another reason to not like the current number. With a drop of just two points, I don’t have much hope that there’ll be a buyback for people looking to play a middle.
So the question is: grab it now in case it keeps dropping, or wait it out? Again, I don’t like the number, and I don’t like buying numbers that I don’t like (that’s a twisted-sounding sentence right there).
I’m going to wait. Worst case, the hook drops off and I get it at 45. It’s a Friday night game, nationally televised on ESPN. Joe Public likes to play the Over. Hopefully, that’ll be the case Friday night and I can get a better number.
My Buy:
NC/Syracuse Under (wait to buy)
(To see my take on the two NP Unders, check back tomorrow.)
Recap: 0-2
Record: 13-15
Review: Lost last week’s two games with Arizona State and the Ark State Over play.
My bankroll gets a little relief from my PredictEm forum college plays, at 14-11.
Like a hamster in his wheel, I’m working hard but not getting anywhere. I need to get some traction this week.
C’mon Broncos!!! (For an explanation on “C’mon Broncos!” see my homepage column on the Chippewas.)
