Hawaii’s been cashing tickets all season, but can the Rainbow Warriors keep it rolling on the mainland against a struggling San Jose State squad? Loot Levinson breaks down the matchup and points to where the edge lies.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) vs. San Jose State Spartans (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 10
Date/Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025 at 10:30PM EST
Where: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, California
TV: CBS Sports Network
Betting Odds
Point Spread: HAW +2.5/SJSU -2.5 (Bovada)
Money Line: HAW +115, SJSU -135
Over/Under Total: 58.5
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors come into CEFCU Stadium on Saturday night to take on the San Jose State Spartans in a Mountain West Conference battle. Hawaii is off to a good start, sitting at 6-2 and entering this one after just getting last week off, following a 31-19 win over Colorado State on the road. They take to the road again this week to face the San Jose Spartans, a team that is reeling a bit after getting beaten 30-25 on the road at Utah State on the 17th. It was their third loss in four games, as the Spartans have only won twice this season, one win being against an FCS opponent. Let’s break this one down from San Jose!
Stacking Things Up
While road trips for Hawaii are all daunting ones, this is one of the cushier ones, with a late game suiting their internal clocks on the West Coast. On the surface, the odds seem a little favorable to Hawaii, getting points against a struggling team, while Hawaii is 6-2 and rested, coming off their third win in a row. And even with the knowledge that Hawaii hasn’t had the toughest trip to this 6-2 mark, it’s still not easy to get behind the Spartans laying points in this spot.
But maybe Hawaii has been made to look a smidge better than it actually is. Since starting conference play, they were sunk at home by a mid-pack Fresno St. squad, then peeled off three wins to get to this point, with those three opponents a combined 8-15. Still, they look good with three straight wins and four straight covers. The road spots they’ve seen have been pretty easy, and they’ve caught some breaks facing weak teams and even a few that had extra issues the week they played Hawaii. But even if you’re not buying into the Rainbow Warriors’ upsurge fully, they are on the upswing in former Hawaii star QB Timmy Chang’s fourth season at the helm, already having surpassed Chang’s previous high in wins with 6 this season.
What Hawaii Will Try to Do
The Hawaii offense has gotten a boost from the play of QB Micah Ajejado, who has really brought a lot out of their nice 1-2 punch at wide receiver Pofele Ashlock and Jackson Harris. While Landon Sims and Cam Barfield are effective in spots, running the ball isn’t really their strength. Still, their last three games have seen their offense scoring 40 a game, while the defense has done its job, albeit against some of the weaker offenses in the conference. The “D” is not the stoutest, but they’ve become more and more serviceable, while also bringing a nice pass-rush at times. With guys like Jackie Johnson, III., and De’Jon Benton up front, they can really alter an opponent’s game-plan.
Not that Ajejado will be having things all his way. The San Jose defense can make some big plays here and there. But even against teams that are not known to be that electric through the air, the San Jose defense has been giving up gobs of production through the air. Opposing quarterbacks are soaring past 300 yards passing, many times far before the game is over. And that doesn’t bode well against a Timmy Chang team coming into town with a blossoming young QB who likes to air it out.
How San Jose State Will Counter
For the purposes of this matchup, it’s critical to see if Hawaii being stout through the air is real or if it is a mirage. Has a list of idealized opponents who made the secondary look better than it is, responsible for this form, or is it just a matter of time before they run into the right opponent who can throw a different light on it? San Jose State, despite its woes, has a nice player behind center in Walker Eget. He has 15 TD throws and just three picks on the season, making a really nice connection with blossoming sophomore receiver Danny Scudero, along with a gaggle of other dangerous pass-catchers. Running the ball has been a bit of a struggle, meaning we should be seeing two offenses heavy on passing on Saturday.
What to Expect
Again, barring some unseen developments, the run game will be used by both teams as a table-setter for the pass game, as each team has two good quarterbacks coming into their own with weapons at their disposal. And while San Jose State has been far from impressive this season, there is a sneaking feeling that on the road and after a week off, they represent a subtle jump in quality that surpasses what Hawaii has been seeing opponent-wise. There’s also a sense you develop after decades of betting on college football that when a spread looks too good, you’re getting ready to lose. You can almost begin to be able to smell a rat in cases like this. I just can’t help but think that the combination of Hawaii’s aerial prowess and the leakiness of the San Jose secondary could combine to have Hawaii very much in this game, with a possible win. I’ll take the Rainbow Warriors in this one.
Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:
I’m betting on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors plus 2.5 points.
