Stanford vs North Carolina Prediction, Odds & Best Bets | Week 11 College Football Pick

Stanford Cardinal (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 11
Date/Time: Saturday, November 8, 2025 at 1:30PM EST
Where: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
TV: The CW Network

The Stanford Cardinal comes into Chapel Hill on Saturday for an ACC showdown with the North Carolina Tar Heels. Both teams are sitting on three wins heading into this, hoping a strong close to the season can lend some promise for a pair of teams that have fallen flat this season. We have two first-year coaches, both with NFL credentials, with Bill Belichick’s Tar Heels hosting Frank Reich’s Cardinal squad. North Carolina was able to come into this with a win, following Friday’s 27-10 road win over Syracuse. Then again, Syracuse is really circling the drain, and that ended a 4-game losing streak. Stanford, meanwhile, after alternating wins and losses, has dropped two straight. They were in pretty tough, but lost both games and with large point spread allowances, didn’t cover either game. For all of the Tar Heels’ issues, they are still a respectable 5-3 against the spread.

Challenges for Stanford

As we get deeper into the college football campaign, you wonder if teams like Stanford perhaps start slipping a little bit. We’ve seen signs of this with their play over the last couple of weeks. But beyond their struggling form is the idea that you have these below-average West Coast teams who have been realigned into different conferences, now making long road trips. Whereas the Cardinal formerly had to go in and around their state, now they’re having to travel to face schools like Virginia, SMU, and Miami, teams that all smoked Stanford on the road this year so far.

You just have to question how well they’re holding up mentally on that Stanford sideline after these last few weeks. Three floggings in their last four games could have them a little deflated as they again face a challenging road spot, albeit against what would seem a more manageable opponent. But the same applies to a North Carolina offense that might find things a little easier at home against a Stanford defense that has become less and less impactful. Seldom have backers of the Cardinal this season been able to depend on a big play from this group to steer things more in their favor.

Not to put this solely in the hands of former Oregon St. and now Stanford QB Ben Gulbranson. He has gotten some juice out of the Stanford aerial attack, namely pass-catchers CJ Williams, Bryce Farrell, and TE Sam Roush, with the one-two punch of Micah Ford (questionable) and Cole Tabb developing in the backfield. Still, he has more picks than TDs, and there’s a lack of dependability from this bunch, and in their road-conference spots, they’ve been decidedly off-key.

What Can the Tar Heels Do About It?

Have there maybe been signs of a North Carolina upsurge? Yes and no. Perhaps the smashing opening-week loss to TCU in Belichick’s debut cast a stark image. And the four-game losing streak leading up to the nice win against Syracuse wasn’t exactly promising either. Still, we see a defense that has allowed 48 combined points in their last three games, playing a role in what has been a mostly-struggling team actually being in the black ATS. We see a team building toward something with some good effort being shown on the field, not so much a down-and-out team resigned to their fate. When looking at the teams that have truly troubled this defense, they are offensive units that are far superior to what Stanford typically brings to the table.

It’s all relative. And what North Carolina has on offense is not going to allow them to contend in this conference anytime soon. They still look to be turning the corner at least a little bit. QB Gio Lopez was pretty good in the rout against Syracuse. Demon June was over 100 yards on the ground and scored twice. Things seem to be clicking a little more lately, with the key pieces of this offense starting to deliver. But make no mistake, they have yet to establish any level of bankability, even facing a Stanford team whose defense has taken a beating lately.

What to Expect on Saturday

Being worse against the pass than the run could work in some way for Stanford. Their leakiness against the pass could be camouflaged to some extent against a UNC aerial attack that lacks electricity, but I still imagine Lopez and his weapons getting some things done, paving the way for a multi-pronged run-game led by June. It seems the Stanford offense this season needs a very specialized equation in order for them to thrive. And merely being this far from home put a kink in that, as does the fact that North Carolina seems vaguely headed in a more positive direction, despite both teams having the same number of wins.

Lay the Number on the Home Team

It’s not easy laying a number like this on a Tar Heels team that, up until last week, was averaging 13 points a game over their last month. At this point in the season, however, and considering the stations in life both teams occupy, the simple act of just keeping it together can go a long way. And heading down this final stretch of the regular season, I sense the Tar Heels as being the more together team, and I see their run-game and defense doing the job, and Saturday on their way to a win and cover in Chapel Hill. I’m taking North Carolina.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus 8.5 points.

More picks: Check out who RBD is playing in this game.