Bash on GSW–DEN without Curry: why a near-double-digit road number still isn’t enough in altitude — with shot-volume, paint, and turnover edges all pointing one way.
The Setup: Warriors at Nuggets Without Chef Curry
This opened around Nuggets -9.5 (some -10s) and the books are begging you to grab Golden State with the big number. Don’t take the bait. Stephen Curry is OUT (illness), Jimmy Butler questionable (back), and Ball Arena hasn’t given an inch — Denver’s been spotless at home. This isn’t just a mismatch; it’s a line meant to keep public money on the brand name while sharper tickets lay chalk.
Golden State averages 117.4 ppg overall — then you pull their 30-a-night engine and the offense gets ordinary fast. Meanwhile, Nikola Jokić is averaging a triple-double on elite efficiency. Denver has handled this head-to-head at home and the altitude tax is real. Seen this movie. Same ending.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Friday, November 7, 2025 — 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
- Spread (shop range): Nuggets -9.5 to -10
- Total (market range): 228–228.5
- Moneyline (approx): Warriors +325 to +336 / Nuggets -435 to -455
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
“Ten points is a lot…and the Warriors still have depth.” That’s the whisper. Reality: this should be closer to 12–13 in this context. Denver is humming at home while Golden State’s road profile leaks. The number is set to split action; the matchup data leans heavier than the sticker price.
Warriors Breakdown: Running on Empty
Moses Moody can pop (24 last out), but counting on repeat splash nights is wishful. He’s around 13 ppg. Jonathan Kuminga (17.2 & 7.1) is efficient when defenses tilt to Curry — with Curry out, matchups get real and the lanes get tight. Brandin Podziemski (~12.6 ppg) is steady, not a ceiling-raiser. The bigger, boring problem: shot volume. Warriors are only 85.9 FGA/g (#24) and they don’t steal extras on the glass (9.4 ORB/g, #25). Thin road margins get thinner in altitude.
Nuggets Breakdown: The Joker’s House
It’s Jokic’s pace, Jokic’s angles, Jokic’s reads. Denver scores 124.6 ppg (#2) on 50.3% FG (#3) with top-tier ball movement (30.3 ast/g, #3; AST/TO 2.186, #3). Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon slot in as efficient second and third punches. The defense is structurally sound enough (Opp FG% 45.3%, #7) to let the offense apply a vice grip over 48.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
Volume + Quality: Denver simply gets more, better looks: 90.6 FGA/g (#10) vs GSW 85.9 (#24), and converts at a higher clip. Paint math is not subtle: Nuggets 56.6 PITP (#3), Warriors allow 53.3 Opp PITP (#22). On the glass, Denver’s 36.6 DREB/g (#1) and 78.3% DREB% (#4) erase second chances.
Stat Edge
- Margin & Tempo Control: DEN +11.0 avg margin (#3) vs GS +2.1 (#14). Denver’s profile supports laying a big number; Golden State’s doesn’t.
- Three-Point Math (the ballgame): GS lives from deep — 16.4 3PM/G (#1) — but DEN smothers the arc: Opp 3P% 31.9% (#1) and Opp eFG% 52.2% (#8). Curry out amplifies this edge.
- Paint & Efficiency: DEN 56.6 PITP (#3) on 60.7% 2P% (#2); GS allows 53.3 Opp PITP (#22). Jokic & Co. manufacture easy twos all night.
- Shot Volume + Quality: DEN 90.6 FGA/G (#10) with 50.3% FG (#3) and 56.7% eFG (#8) vs GS 85.9 FGA/G (#24). More shots, better shots → scoreboard pressure.
- Ball Movement & Care: DEN 30.3 AST/G (#3), AST/TO 2.186 (#3). GS turns it over: 16.4 TO/G (#26), 14.5% TO/play (#28). Possession gap favors the favorite.
- Glass: DEN owns the defensive boards — 36.6 DREB/G (#1), 78.3% DREB% (#4). GS is bottom-third in total rebounding (49.0 #27) and ORB% (22.4% #25).
- Quarter Splits (separation zones): DEN detonates in the 3rd (32.3 ppg, #1); GS fades in the 4th (26.3 ppg, #26). Altitude + bench minutes = late cover fuel.
Counterpoints (Manageable)
- GS Shotmaking: 56.4% eFG (#11), 38.9% 3P (#7) and 84.9% FT (#4) — if role guys heat up, the backdoor is the only sweat.
- Foul Math: DEN keeps foes off the line (Opp FTA/FGA 0.253, #4), so Warriors won’t steal points at the stripe.
Live Betting Plan
Denver’s third-quarter pop is a trend (32.3, #1). If GS lands early threes and you see -7.5/-8 in-game, that’s your add. If the arc cools and turnovers climb (GS 16.4 TO/G), press the pregame number. Fourth-quarter fatigue favors altitude.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
Nuggets -9.5 (-110) — 3 Units. The market’s baiting Warriors money with the name and the digits. No Curry, thin shot volume, turnover risk, and Denver’s shot quality/board edge — it stacks one way. I’ve got this landing in the 15–20 window unless the Warriors hit an outlier barrage late. Lay it.
