Central showdown in Detroit—ATS and total angles keyed by Cade Cunningham’s form, Jalen Duren on the glass, and Chicago’s road splits.
This line’s a joke. Detroit sitting at -2.5 against a Bulls team that’s 8-2 against the spread and coming off three straight losses? The books are begging you to take Chicago here, which means we need to pump the brakes and look at what’s really happening in this Central Division clash.
Detroit’s riding a seven-game winning streak and sitting pretty at 9-2 while leading the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, Chicago’s dropped four of their last five and just got torched by Victor Wembanyama for 38 points in a home loss to San Antonio. The Bulls are 6-4 overall but 1-3 on the road – and that road number is about to get uglier Wednesday night in the Motor City.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Wednesday, November 12, 2025 – 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI
- Spread: Pistons -2.5 (Bovada: -115) | Bulls +2.5 (Bovada: -105)
- Total: 234.5 (MyBookie) / 235.0 (Bovada)
- Moneyline: Pistons -145 | Bulls +125
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
The market’s disrespecting Detroit here, and I’m not buying it. Look at the numbers: the Pistons are averaging 118.0 points per game while holding opponents to just 112.7 – that’s a +5.3 scoring margin that ranks 8th in the NBA. Chicago’s averaging 119.2 PPG but they’re giving up 118.4, leaving them at just +0.8 and ranked 17th in net rating.
The Bulls are 8-2 ATS this season, which is exactly why this line is sitting at 2.5 instead of 4.5 or 5.5. Vegas knows the public loves backing Chicago’s cover machine, so they’re keeping this number tight to balance the action. But here’s what sharp money knows: Detroit’s 5-0 straight up in their last five games and they’ve been absolute dogs at home, sitting at 4-1 with an average of 120.3 points per game in their own building.
The historical head-to-head tells another story too. In their last 10 meetings, Detroit’s gone 7-16-1 ATS when facing Chicago, and they’re just 2-10 straight up at home against the Bulls in their last 12. That’s a massive contrarian indicator screaming that when Detroit does cover, they tend to blow through the number.
Bulls Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Chicago’s dealing with some serious injury questions. Josh Giddey – their leading scorer at 21.4 PPG with 9.3 assists and 9.6 rebounds – is questionable with an ankle issue. That’s a potential triple-double machine sitting on the sideline, and Kevin Huerter stepping into the starting lineup isn’t the same offensive weapon even though he dropped 23 in the loss to San Antonio.
The Bulls shoot 48.5% from the field (9th in the league) and 39.9% from three (4th), but here’s the problem: they’re 24th in free throw rate at just 0.272 FTA/FGA. That means when the game gets physical in the paint, Chicago doesn’t get to the line. Detroit averages 31.3 free throw attempts per game (29th in allowing FTAs), so we’re looking at a Bulls team that won’t capitalize on Detroit’s foul trouble.
Chicago’s also getting cooked on the defensive glass, ranking just 11th in defensive rebounds per game. That’s a major issue against a Pistons team that leads the league in offensive rebounding.
Pistons Breakdown: The Other Side
Cade Cunningham just put up a career-high 46 points with 12 rebounds, 11 assists, five steals, and two blocks in an overtime win against Washington. The kid’s averaging 27.5 PPG, 9.9 assists, and 5.4 rebounds while shooting the ball 45 times in his last game. He’s playing at an MVP level, and he’s questionable for this game with a hip issue – but even at 80%, Cunningham’s better than most guards in the league.
Jalen Duren is averaging 19.4 points and 12.0 rebounds with seven double-doubles in 11 games. He’s shooting 64.7% from the field and controlling the paint. Chicago’s got Nikola Vucevic at center (17.1 PPG, 10.3 RPG), but Duren’s younger, more athletic, and grabbing 4.5 offensive boards per game compared to Vooch’s 2.4. That’s the kind of physical advantage that wears on a team over 48 minutes.
Detroit’s also getting major contributions from Ausar Thompson (13.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.8 steals) before he went down with an ankle injury. He’s ruled out for Wednesday, but the Pistons still have Duncan Robinson (11.4 PPG, shooting 39.2% from three) and Tobias Harris potentially returning (reports are now saying unlikely) from his ankle issue.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and on the boards. Detroit averages 58.7 points in the paint per game (2nd in the NBA) while holding opponents to just 54.6 (26th). Chicago scores 55.8 in the paint (4th) but allows 54.6. The Pistons have a massive edge in offensive rebounding – they’re pulling down 14.6 per game (3rd) compared to Chicago’s 10.4 (18th).
The pace factor is critical here. Chicago plays at 115.4 possessions per game while Detroit runs at 119.5 possessions. Both teams want to push tempo, which is why the total sitting at 234.5-235 makes sense. But here’s the thing: Detroit’s defensive efficiency at home is elite, and they’re forcing 14.1 turnovers per game while committing just 11.8 (8th in turnover differential).
Look at the shooting matchup: Chicago’s effective field goal percentage is 56.3% (8th) but Detroit’s allowing opponents to shoot just 51.1% eFG (4th in defense). The Bulls are getting outworked on both ends, and with Giddey potentially sitting, they lose their best playmaker and facilitator.
The betting trends scream Detroit too. The Pistons are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 5-0 straight up in their last five. Chicago’s 1-4 straight up in their last five and struggling to find any rhythm. The over has hit in four of Detroit’s last five home games against Chicago, but that was with different rosters – this Pistons team is built on defense and controlling possessions.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: Pistons -2.5 (-115)
I’m hammering this number before it moves. Detroit’s seven-game winning streak isn’t a fluke – they’re outscoring opponents by 5.3 points per game and they’re doing it with elite rebounding and defense in the paint. Cade Cunningham’s playing out of his mind, Jalen Duren’s dominating the glass, and this Pistons team has the physical edge in every matchup that matters.
Chicago’s banged up, tired from three straight losses, and going on the road where they’re just 1-3 this season. The Bulls are 2-10 straight up in their last 12 trips to Detroit, and when the Pistons get rolling at home, they don’t just win – they cover. Detroit by 6-8 points in a game that stays under 235. Load up on the Pistons and thank me later.
The writing’s on the wall with this matchup: Detroit’s better on both ends, healthier where it counts, and riding momentum that Chicago can’t match right now. This line’s a gift at -2.5. Smash it.
