Boise State vs San Diego State Point Spread Pick & Predictions

Boise State Broncos (6-3 SU, 5-2-2 ATS) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS)
NCAA Football Week 12
Date/Time: Saturday, November 15, 2025 at 10:30PM EST
Where: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego Stadium
TV: CBS Sports Network

The Boise State Broncos come into Snapdragon Stadium on Saturday night for a key Mountain West Conference showdown with the San Diego Aztecs. Both teams sit atop the Mountain West standings heading into the final stretch of the regular season, and we could see a rematch of this in the conference title game if things hold up. Last week was rough for the Aztecs. Just after seeing Boise lose their first in conference the week previous, the Aztecs had a chance to take a stranglehold on the conference’s top spot, but lost 38-6 in Hawaii as touchdown favorites. Boise State got last week off, while the Aztecs were in Hawaii, so maybe that will help. But for as bad as SDSU looked last week, Boise was even worse in their last showing, a 30-7 loss at home to Fresno State as 17-point favorites. Combined, both teams missed covering the spread in their last game by an immense 78.5 points. Who can get this back on the right track for this week?

The Stakes are High

A few weeks ago, this looked like one of those situations we’ve seen before in the MWC where two contenders face off late in the season, with an impending conference title rematch in the offing. That can certainly still happen. But with both teams having incurred recent setbacks in upset losses, the loser of this game falls into an unenviable spot with two conference losses among a large pack of other conference teams, where anything can happen, and you need a lot to go right to get a shot at the conference title. The winner of this game, however, has a distinct inside track.

Which Team Can Rebound?

I suppose San Diego State gets a bit of a pass, having to take to the road to Honolulu to face what is in fact a pretty dangerous Hawaii team. Still, the lopsided nature of the loss serves as a red flag that maybe the Aztecs aren’t exactly peaking at the right time. And having to follow that long road trip and a deflating loss the next week in a tough game isn’t ideal, either. But while Boise got a week off to lick their wounds and were at home, getting flogged by Fresno carries with it no special distinction. In the end, maybe the best way to look at it is sort of as a wash and just figure two imperfect teams simply had really bad weeks in their last showing with different personnel issues playing a key role, as well.

Taking Inventory

Not to overrate the importance of Maddux Madsen for the Broncos. But he’s certainly a talented quarterback and a key part of Boise’s success this season, and he’s not going to play this weekend. I think that’s key because the quality in that QB-room really drops off hard after Madsen, and first impressions on backup Max Cutforth were not positive, especially when applied to the context of a high-level and high-stakes conference battle on the road against a defense like the one San Diego State delivers. Last week paints a promising picture for the Boise offense, which still boasts a lot of talent. It’s still an Aztecs defense that has allowed ten or fewer points in 6 of their nine games this season.

Matchup Issues for Boise State This Week

Not to bury Cutforth before he’s really been able to show his wares. They had last week off, and with the abundance of preparation, maybe he can round into a more suitable replacement. The guess would be the Broncos would want to lean more on their run game with Madsen out of commission. And the three-pronged attack of Dylan Riley, Sire Gaines, and Malik Sherrod can do some damage. It’s just that they draw a pretty tough matchup in the San Diego State run-defense, an aspect of the Aztecs’ defense that is terribly difficult to exploit, as they are ranked high nationally across many aspects of that area.

We’ve seen it before, where even an unideal version of Boise State is able to play the role of conference policeman, as they’ve constantly fed reality sandwiches to fellow conference teams that are flying high until they meet the Broncos. Maybe they can get more out of their run game and defense, quell a SDSU offense that isn’t always on fire, and manufacture something out of this. But I sense that with the Aztecs’ defense, Boise’s depreciated offense, and the work of San Diego State weapons like RB Lucky Sutton, WR Jordan Napier, and QB Jayden Denegal, that Sean Lewis might have the personnel edge over Spencer Danielson in this battle of second-year coaches.

Lay the Short Number on the Home Favorite

While I did like the Aztecs slightly more at 2.5 than 3, I think them being at home and at full power goes a long way, with Boise missing Madsen and maybe even top receiver Chris Marshall. I realize Boise can instantly snap into form where they’re again the top dogs in the MWC. We’ve seen blowouts in spots like this, but I think the matchup itself and being handcuffed with personnel make that unlikely, in addition to San Diego State being a sneaky-good team with some talent of their own on the roster. In a competitive game, I see the Aztecs getting the win and cover at home. I’m taking San Diego State.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on San Diego State minus 3 points.