The Raptors roll into Indy as solid road favorites against a Pacers squad missing key pieces and bleeding points, and we’ve got a betting pick on the spread plus a prediction on how the total plays out.
The Setup: Raptors at Pacers
This line’s a joke. The Raptors are laying 7.5 points against a Pacers team that’s literally falling apart at 1-11, and the books are begging you to take Indiana to keep it close. Let me tell you something – this isn’t charity, this is execution time. Toronto’s rolling in at 7-5 with momentum from back-to-back wins over Brooklyn and Cleveland, while Indiana just got boat-raced 133-98 by Phoenix two nights ago. That’s 133 points allowed, folks. The night before that? They gave up 152 to Utah – the most points surrendered by any team in the NBA this season.
The market’s set this spread at 7.5, and I’m seeing totals hovering around 233-233.5 depending on your book. Here’s what you need to understand: this Pacers team isn’t just losing – they’re getting destroyed. They’re averaging 108.5 points per game while giving up 122.7. That’s a minus-14.2 scoring differential that screams “fade me.” Meanwhile, Toronto’s putting up 119.8 per game and only allowing 116.1. The writing’s on the wall with this matchup.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Saturday, November 15, 2025 at 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
- Spread: Raptors -7.5 (MyBookie -110, Bovada -105)
- Total: 233.0 (MyBookie) / 233.5 (Bovada)
- Moneyline: Raptors -285 to -303 / Pacers +235 to +236
Why This Line Exists (Market Psychology)
Let’s break down what Vegas is thinking here. On paper, 7.5 points looks generous for a 7-5 team visiting a 1-11 dumpster fire. But the books know what casual bettors see: “Indiana’s at home, they’re due, and 7.5 is a lot of points.” That’s the trap. The sharp money knows what’s up here – Indiana’s home record is a pathetic 1-4, and they just got smoked by 35 at home against Phoenix.
Look at the efficiency numbers. Toronto’s shooting 49.3% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 56.5%. Indiana? They’re at 39.9% shooting with a 45.8% effective FG%. That’s historically bad. The Pacers rank dead last in the NBA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in offensive efficiency at 108.5 points per game. This isn’t a “they’re due for a bounce-back” spot – this is a team that’s broken.
The total sitting at 233-233.5 also tells you something. With Toronto averaging 119.8 and Indiana at 108.5, you’d expect this number closer to 228. But Vegas knows Indiana’s defense is Swiss cheese right now, giving up 122.7 per game. The books are practically screaming “these teams will score” because Indiana can’t stop anybody. I’m hammering this number before it moves.
Raptors Breakdown: What You Need to Know
Scottie Barnes is playing like an All-Star, averaging 20.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.8 blocks per game. In their last game against Cleveland, he dropped 28 points with 10 rebounds and 8 assists in a dominant 126-113 road win. That’s exactly the kind of performance that translates against a defense ranking 27th in points allowed.
Brandon Ingram is putting up 20.5 points per game on 49.2% shooting, while Immanuel Quickley adds 16.1 points and 6.2 assists. But here’s the kicker – in that Cleveland game, Quickley went off for 25 points on 5-of-7 from three. When Toronto gets hot from deep, they’re unstoppable, and they’re shooting 37.9% from three as a team (9th in the NBA).
The Raptors are 5-3 on the road and just beat the Cavaliers 126-113 in Cleveland while shooting 56% from the floor. They’re also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games, which means they’re not just winning – they’re covering numbers. That momentum is real, and Indiana’s about to feel it.
Pacers Breakdown: The Other Side
Where do I even start with Indiana? They’re 1-11, riding a six-game losing streak, and 0-7 on the road. At home, they’re barely better at 1-4. Pascal Siakam is trying his best with 24.1 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, but he’s playing with a skeleton crew. Bennedict Mathurin (out with toe injury), Aaron Nesmith (knee soreness), and Obi Toppin (foot surgery, out until February) are all sidelined.
Oh, and don’t forget about Tyrese Haliburton – their All-Star point guard who’s out for the entire 2025-26 season recovering from Achilles surgery. That’s the guy who ran their offense last year when they made the Eastern Conference Finals. Without him, this team has no identity and no hope.
The numbers are brutal: 39.9% shooting (30th in NBA), 29.5% from three (30th in NBA), and a defensive rating that has them giving up 122.7 per game (27th in NBA). In their last outing against Phoenix, they scored just 14 points in the fourth quarter. Fourteen! That’s not an NBA team – that’s a G-League squad having a bad night.
The Matchup: Where This Game Gets Decided
This is exactly the spot where Indiana burns you if you’re thinking they’ll show any fight. But here’s the reality: Toronto ranks 10th in scoring at 119.8 per game, while Indiana ranks 29th at 108.5. The Raptors are also first in the NBA in fastbreak points at 21.2 per game, compared to Indiana’s 14.2. Toronto’s going to push the pace, and Indiana can’t keep up.
Look at the rebounding edge too. Indiana grabs 14.7 offensive rebounds per game (3rd in NBA) but only converts those into 47.0 points in the paint (23rd in NBA). What does that tell you? They’re getting second chances but can’t finish. Toronto, meanwhile, is elite in transition and will punish every Indiana miss with quick strikes going the other way.
The home/road splits are damning for the Pacers. According to the SUPERGRID data, Toronto scores 119.5 points per game on the road while Indiana allows 121.4 at home. That’s a massive advantage for the Raptors’ offense. On the flip side, Indiana scores just 115.0 at home while Toronto’s road defense allows 116.0 – basically a wash, but with Toronto having better overall efficiency.
Head-to-head history shows these teams are fairly even over the last 10 meetings (Toronto 4-6 overall, but 5-5 ATS). However, that data doesn’t account for Indiana’s complete roster implosion this season. This isn’t the same Pacers team that made the playoffs last year – this is a shell of that roster.
Bash’s Best Bet & The Play
BASH’S BEST BET: Raptors -7.5 (-110)
Load up on this before the line shifts. Toronto’s won 6 of their last 7 games and is 6-1 ATS during that stretch. They just handled Cleveland on the road by 13, and Cleveland’s actually a competent team. Indiana’s lost six straight, getting obliterated by an average of 14+ points per game, and they have no answers for Toronto’s balanced attack.
The Raptors have three guys averaging 19+ points (Barnes, Ingram, Barrett), while Indiana’s playing without their top three players from last year’s playoff run. This spread should be closer to double digits, but Vegas is giving you a gift at 7.5 because they know casual money will flood to the home underdog.
I’m also liking the Over 233 as a secondary play. Indiana’s defense is surrendering points in bunches – they’ve gone over this number in 5 of their last 7 games. Toronto’s offense is clicking, and even if the Pacers can’t score, they’ll force enough tempo to push this total over the finish line.
The public’s all over Indiana getting points at home, which means the sharp money is quietly backing Toronto to win this going away. I’ve seen this movie before – the injury-ravaged home dog that looks like value but gets run out of the gym by the third quarter. Raptors by double digits. Book it.
