While the market line moved to favor the desperate home team (South Carolina -3), the clear conviction is found in the total, which is the sharper, more reliable play. Historic rivalry trends are overwhelmingly Under (hitting in 6 of the last 7 in Columbia), and both offenses are demonstrably inefficient, averaging a combined 49.1 PPG (Clemson 27.1, USC 22.0). This is a game built for defense, field position, and mistakes, making the Under 46.0 the base case scenario regardless of which team covers the spread.
Clemson vs South Carolina Betting Odds & Line Movement
Look, I’ve been doing this long enough to know when a line tells the real story. South Carolina opened as 2-point favorites at home, and we’ve seen that creep up to -3 at some books. When a line pushes a full point toward the home favorite in rivalry week, that’s the market screaming something loud and clear. The public sees two disappointing teams and thinks “closer than -2,” but the sharps are seemingly loading up on the Gamecocks. Or are they?
Here’s what jumps out: this line moving toward the Gamecocks tells me the market is pricing in rivalry desperation, but the real story is hiding underneath. Clemson’s averaging just 27.1 points per game while South Carolina’s putrid 22.0 points per game ranks 95th nationally. We’re looking at a total sitting around 46, and honestly, the under is where the smart money lives on this one.
Clemson vs South Carolina Game Information
Date: Saturday, November 29th, 2025
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC
Spread: South Carolina -3
Total: 46
Moneyline: Clemson +110, South Carolina -130
This is season-finale stuff for both teams. Clemson’s already bowl eligible at 6-5, but the Gamecocks need this one badly to salvage something from a nightmare 4-7 campaign. Nothing like desperation in rivalry week, but we need to pump the brakes on what that actually means for this matchup.
Clemson vs South Carolina Recap: What Happened Last Week
Clemson took care of business against Furman, winning 45-10 in what should’ve been a tune-up game. Cade Klubnik looked sharp throwing for 288 yards and two touchdowns, but let’s pump the brakes — it was Furman. The Tigers are riding a three-game win streak, but those victories came against Louisville (by one point), Florida State (struggling), and an FCS opponent.
South Carolina steamrolled Coastal Carolina 51-7, and suddenly LaNorris Sellers looked like the quarterback we thought he’d be in August. Four total touchdowns, efficient passing, and the ground game finally showed up with 267 rushing yards. But here’s the thing — it was Coastal Carolina. The Gamecocks have been fool’s gold all season, looking great against inferior competition before getting exposed by anyone with a pulse.
Conference Betting Context: ACC vs SEC Dynamics
This is where rivalry week gets interesting. We’re talking ACC vs SEC here, and both conferences have been down this year. Clemson’s 4-4 in ACC play, which tells you everything about how far they’ve fallen from the College Football Playoff conversation. Meanwhile, South Carolina sits at a brutal 1-7 in SEC play.
The cultural angle matters in this spot. Shane Beamer is 0-2 at home in this series, and Clemson owns a five-game winning streak at Williams-Brice Stadium. But here’s the data point that matters more: Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last five road games against South Carolina. That kind of psychological edge doesn’t just disappear because the Tigers have struggled this season. In fact, it might be reinforced.
Clemson vs South Carolina Matchup in the Trenches
Here’s where this game gets decided. Clemson’s defense is allowing just 3.65 yards per rush, while South Carolina’s ground attack is putrid at 3.3 yards per carry. The Tigers’ front seven, led by T.J. Parker and Peter Woods, should dominate.
On the flip side, Clemson’s offense has been inconsistent all season. They’re managing just 4.14 yards per rush themselves, and their red zone efficiency (83.87%) ranks only 70th nationally. South Carolina’s defense has been better than their overall record suggests, particularly in takeaways where they’re generating 2.0 per game.
The turnover battle is crucial here. South Carolina is +0.6 in turnover margin while Clemson sits at -0.3. In a low-scoring game, whoever wins the possession battle likely covers. But more importantly, in a game this ugly offensively, the under becomes the base case scenario.
Key Players & Injury Updates for Clemson vs South Carolina
Klubnik has been the story for Clemson all season — when he’s on, they can move the ball through the air. He’s completing 66.7% of his passes with solid protection (4.00% sack rate), but the weapons around him have been inconsistent.
For South Carolina, Sellers has been a roller coaster. The young quarterback shows flashes but has struggled with consistency, particularly in big moments. His 11.39% sack rate tells the story of an offensive line that can’t protect him consistently.
Both teams are relatively healthy heading into this one, which means no easy excuses for poor performance. What we’re dealing with are two offenses that just can’t consistently move the ball downfield.
Public Betting vs Sharp Action: Clemson vs South Carolina
The line movement tells the real story here. When a number moves toward a home team that’s been terrible at home in this series, that could be public money loading up on desperation. But let’s look at what the data actually says.
South Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last five home games against Clemson. The Gamecocks are 1-4 ATS in that same stretch. Meanwhile, Clemson is 4-1 ATS on the road against South Carolina and 5-0 SU. The sharps have been backing the Tigers on the road for a reason. This isn’t public vs sharp here — this is a situation where home field hasn’t mattered, and it might not start mattering now.
Public Betting Trends: Following the Under
Here’s where it gets interesting. The under has gone in 6 of South Carolina’s last 7 home games against Clemson. The under has also hit in 6 of Clemson’s last 7 road games against South Carolina. You don’t get more aligned than that. Both teams historically play tight, defensive games in this matchup, and both teams this year lack the offensive firepower to break through.
Clemson vs South Carolina Picks & Predictions by Kevin West
PRIMARY PLAY: UNDER 46 (-110) — 3 Units
Listen, both these teams have struggled to score consistently all season. Clemson’s averaging 27.1 points per game, South Carolina just 22.0. But this isn’t just about 2025 numbers. The under has been money in this rivalry dating back years. Clemson’s 5-0 on the road in recent trips to Columbia, but you know what those games looked like? Tight, defensive, low-scoring battles. South Carolina owns the line at home but can’t put up points. The Tigers’ defense travels, South Carolina’s defense has actually been decent all year. In rivalry games, especially with two teams playing tight, field position and special teams matter more than explosive plays.
The under has hit in 6 of the last 7 Columbia matchups between these two. That’s not a coincidence. That’s a trend baked into the DNA of this rivalry.
SECONDARY CONSIDERATION: South Carolina -3 (-110) — 1 Unit (If You Must Play the Spread)
I’m not loving this number, but I’ll take the desperate home team getting the line in what should be a low-scoring grind. Beamer needs this game more than Dabo does, and that desperation matters in rivalry week. But understand what you’re getting: a team that’s 0-5 at home in this series lately, playing an opponent that’s 5-0 on the road in this series lately. The narrative says home field matters. The data says Clemson travels well. You’re betting on narrative here, not trend.
LIVE BET ALERT: Watch the first quarter total. If we get early points, the game might deviate from type. But expect slow starts and clock management heavy football. Both offenses are too inconsistent to take 7 points off the first half and break out.
FINAL ANGLE: This feels like a 17-14 type game where field position and special teams matter more than explosive plays. In those spots, I’m taking the under and I’m comfortable locking it in now rather than waiting. The 46 total is respectable value, and the historical precedent is overwhelming. When two struggling offenses meet on the road where one has owned the other in recent years, the under isn’t a contrarian angle — it’s the base case.
